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I have to echo Bob's comments (also being a LTH).
Personally I care not what others have to say as I am content with my investment and expect to make a significant profit .
The story here has only just started , and those that are well researched can already see it IMO.
After again listening to the latest podcast, Colins tune was very upbeat indeed.
Personally, I believe many that have not read up on the subject will not appreciate the possibilities here, and believe that the modelling, based on assay's and the Geophysics survey will allow an easier understanding of exactly what lies beneath, and will be main driver for a push up from here.
As Colin said there will be a cut off where mineralisation is not considered economic in parts of the model, (there will be sweet spots, and very sweet spots too), and that due to its inclination, open pit would likely be the way to go, 15 to 20 years.
Now consider a mill churning 100,000 tons of mineralised ore a day will take about 20 years to extract 2MT of contained copper, at around 0.25%, or circa $2 M worth on average each day, (at $8000 a ton), I expect that would provide a very nice profit after capex and extraction costs, (even halved for open pit).
But we are not expecting it to be halved, Colin's message seems to be that we are looking at something that could be considerably larger, and that that 15 to 20 year open pit would only be the start, the way in to the porfrey system proper.
The first hole showing mineralisation of over 900 m is a good clue to magnitude of Racecourse itself, though he also said that it is still open in all dimensions, as I understood it (I liked it when someone else said Racecourse as the 'single target' Porfrey being like finger of a blown up rubber glove, we aim for the other fingers via the chubby hand they escaped from.).
I do see considerable upside over the coming months, personally I hold several Million shares here, collected over the past 6 years, so am very happy sitting on my hands taking in the progress on all fronts, and learning from all the newer more informed posters, so am more confident than ever.
I bought in based on Manica and the African assets, which I believe can also add considerable value in the next 6 months as their development comes to fruition.
GLA and thanks for all the information that has been posted in recent months, pointing me where to look regarding porfreys and the like.
If the market did understand about porphories and associated grades, then the sp would not have dropped 20% over the next 3 days , after good hole 1 assay results were released.
The sp would have gone up 20% after those results, not down 20%.
AIMHO
I'd be very surprised if the market "didn't understand porphyries", there are enough of them around in Oz and elsewhere. At the end of the day we don't know for sure yet what tonnage we have and at what grade, and therefore whether we even have a economic mine. IIs generally won't invest on a wing and a prayer, they'll need much more info IMHO. So I suspect we'll need all the assays followed by a pre-JORC company assessment of what we have here before we'll see a significant, permanent move upwards. (We will undoubtedly get fluctuations driven by retail investors and traders as the news dribbles out). I'm confidently holding and am quite relaxed about slow steady progress.
It’s important not to live in an echo chamber and I’m posting this as there was a question on why this share isn’t flying, my thoughts:
Finding share in first place, you have to go through a lot of mining shares to find as the initial spike is history.
XRF substantially out for first hole, whats to say rest aren’t and team have got next holes wrong?
Cash raise and funding going forward, is this covered? Will I get stung and buy on spike?
Mozambique and ISIS issues with current mine.
Historical over run on projects and delayed results / timings / communication.
Copper super cycle hasn’t really started, will it or is it going back down??
Lack of TR1 and heavy major investors?
Ethical status of current mines?
Environmental status in Vulcan forest and wider open pit mining?
Legal status and implications of buy back and what that exactly means?
Did AA and a lot of other players really get this so wrong?!
I have my answers, a lot has been discussed already, you can see how the business is pushing forward with CB and team doing a cracking job. I’m happy with the risk/reward. This is now a major part of my portfolio.
Personally, I think this share is really going to start moving up in the coming weeks / months as assay results start flowing (hopefully Monday?), new modelling data is shared (June?) and the suspected delayed TR1 is published (should be soon?) all will be steps on the SP.
Plenty of punchy twists and turns to come here yet I expect; that simply a function of us being still reasonably early in the total Racecourse journey here.. and indeed the Africa assets journey too.
Great if this BET is a slam dunk win in the end .. but to think it's a nailed on slam dunker from what we know already is premature or even very premature imho.
And this s/p can of course still go decently down from here as well as decently up.. for eg if hole 2 assay results are between .2% and .3% my guess is the s/p comes off to a reasonable extent.. if higher than .33% then I guess it pushes on up decently.... and further hole assay results will have, one by one, whatever s/p effect on top too.... and each piece of news released thereafter could of course have a meaningful effect from there forward too.. again, one way or other...
Altogether, for what's known/where we're at across all the Xtr assets so far, the s/p is not unreasonable level currently imho.
Been looking through GGP RNS’s and there was a correlation between their timings of drill results and subsequent share price increases.
Would agree also that, it is probably not a fair comparison due to the market not understanding porphyry systems. That’s a fair point. Understandable.
I noticed they had 9 drilling rigs operational at Haverion with approx 80,000m of drilling planned in july20.
I would like to think that ‘if’ a multi porphyry system is evident at bushranger, either from the updated 3D model or through later drilling that the company will bring in an additional rig for progression through the next phase. The bigger this is, I think the likelihood this will happen seems plausible
This will be a pivotal time for a rerate if the market hasn’t awakened to remaining assay results of first phase.
Surely the clever / shrewd market investors make it their business to understand the likes of Porphyries, so they can invest / buy in at value long before others do, hence making double digit return s for their investors / shareholders. AKA Slater investments and others with say, JLP.
Just plain ignorance if they dont understand the value / potential with XTR, are they all just a bit thick?, or just that they cant be arsed to understand as they are so rich already?. hey ho
Sq52
>>>>>.SP increase drives by assay results, TR1 investors, modelling, granting of mining licence and finally JORC.>>>>>>>>>
I agree, but apart from assay results, none of those drivers have happened yet.
The assay results, as yet, have not driven any rerate. I suspect the reason why assay results at GGP did start a sp increase was because they could be understood and compared with conventional mining grades. As I said earlier, the market doesn’t understand Porphyries so our grades may appear very low in comparison to other Cu grades.
That is why I don’t think our assay results alone with be a driver for any rerate. Maybe I'll be proved wrong after 5 assay results?
I think the first real driver of a sp rerate will be TR1/ investor notification. Unless, of course, the market starts to understand about Porphyries and their grades !
News - The Hotchili comparison is very interesting.
This stood out for me... "We have NOT yet tested that MAGICAL 1,000M THAT MADE ALPALA CASCABEL what it is today. That*s where those fingers turned into a HAND."
Compare that to what CB talked about in the last Sharetalk interview... " If Racecourse is a tilted porphyry intrusion, then the possibility is extremely strong that there's a solid core , if you like, that leads to these porphyrys." He then went on to talk about the IP survey testing at depths of 1,000-1,500m.
Anyone else getting the distinct impression that CB thinks they have found a massive podgy porphyry finger and are also hoping it leads to a whole hand? The IP survey report and 3D modelling could be amazing. Can't wait for the next CB interview as he must be getting a heads up re IP survey progress and it will be interesting to see if he can contain his excitement.
Andrew, have a check of GGP on share price and JORC timing.
Don’t need to wait for the JORC as most investors worked it out.
SP increase drives by assay results, TR1 investors, modelling, granting of mining licence and finally JORC.
"HOT CHILI KNOCK, KNOCKING ON TIER 1 DOOR."-Mining Journal, 15.2.21
https://www.mining-journal.com/resourcestocks-company-profiles/resourcestocks/1404618/hot-chili-knock-knocking-on-tier-1-door
"We*re sitting on 3Mt of copper ....so our target is to get over the 5MT CONTAINED COPPER MARK & THAT PUTS US ON THE TRUE DEFINITION OF T I E R 1 GLOBAL COPPER DEPOSIT.
At that level, you are moving into the PLUS $ 5 0 BILLION IN GROUND-VALUE CLUB
and as you know there are very FEW CO*S that arent majors that hold assets like that.
So we require another 2Mt of contained copper metal.
We have NOT yet tested that MAGICAL 1,000M THAT MADE ALPALA CASCABEL what it is today. That*s where those fingers turned into a HAND.
We*ve taken on a BEAST and the only way we succeed in this strategy is to push this
INTO T I E R 1 status, with ONLY 3 - 4 CO*S THAT ARE HOLDING ASSETS LIKE THAT GLOBALLY."
Also mentioned about CLOSE to INFRASTRUCTURE which is night and day comparison. [Hot Chili vs Winu, Rio]. Rio is not as close to infrastructure.
"As Mining Journal has reported, these are RARE MAJOR DEPOSITS in a DEPLETED GLOBAL COPPER project pipeline."
----
My comment:
XTR* s Racecourse is not far from infrastructure. See XTR Bushranger Apr 2020 presentation for details.
RACECOURSE SCOPING STUDY
0.2% copper CUT-OFF = ECONOMIC @US$7,500/t and
0.15% copper cut off = economic @US$10,000/t.
Copper price around the US$9,000+ mark currently.
RACECOURSE JORC
71Mt @0.44% cu and 0.064g/t au
Hole 1 under XTR: 0. 3 3 % CU EQ. Just in case, one poster here and on another did not appear to know what eq is which is used by the industry to be EQUIVALENT.
Is it not that when the Racecourse JORC is UPDATED, even the earlier 71Mt @0.44% cu and 0.064g/t au gold has to be INCORPORATED as norm?
Sat, 10 Apr 2021.
BODA: 500Mt to 2.24Billion tonnes @ 0. 2 8 g/t to 0. 3 5 g/t au per Edison report of 8 Dec 2021. Only 2 co*s so far have drilled to the MAGICAL 1,000M, that is BODA AND XTR RACECOURSE. Isnt that not norm? Others are trying in the Lachlan Fold, NSW, Australia but have not been successful to hit 1,000m and mineralised. NO ONE HAS STATED THAT BODA is not good enough at 0. 28g/t to 0.35g/t gold?
DYOR. Latest Colin Bird interview - open pit.
Yes Andrew that might be the case with the grades.
I think what we are looking for is nice long runs of commercial grades as per hole 1
This consistency over long distances and very large volumes even at non spectacular grades would imho make the mine a v commercial proposition over a large 20+ number of years .
Hole 6 really gave a clue to depth , significant potential extension of the volume and multiple porphyry potential .
Anything above .3% average on hole 2 would indeed be a nice result , maybe also with some evidence of good grades at depth.
Lets hope the H2 assay results are 'anomalous' in a good way !
I am expecting H2 results to be between 0.2% and 0.3%. I think that would be fine, but as the market doesnt seem to understand Porphyries, I think the market may see those grades as poor?? We may get a pull back like we did when H1 assays were released - even when those grades were 0.33% .
I'm starting to think that drill results and assays are not going to be the catalyst for a rerate. We may need a JORC?? Or confirmation of Institutional Investor?
If the market understood Porphyries or what we have here, the sp would be well over 10p by now imho
Cygnus - They posted some pictures of the core samples on the website, so you can see the copper for yourself. https://xtractresources.com/photo-gallery/
Might be wishful thinking that the delay in the assay results is because they are questioning whether there can really be that much copper... but no harm in wishing for it I guess!
Am I right in saying that on occasion assay results are delayed because they are, shall we say 'anomalous' and need to be checked prior to being released to the public. Having looked at the final hole 2 RNS again I see CB remarked that the copper was visible in some sections. So, this delay in release of the hole 2 assays could potentially be very good news.
Thanks CE
Colin seemed particularly pleased that Bushranger was looking like a purish copper play without the need for gold top ups.