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I think it is the Covid hangup...... i think if we get news of the equip being in country and therefore a known timeframe to production the SP will begin to rise sharply again.... imo
A4444, I agree wholeheartedly, there is very little confidence in the company and everyone feared another dilution. It is no coincidence that the SP rose with a steady stream of good news and now following the collapse, the good news has stopped as well. Could a dilution have been planned and then scrapped when the market got jittery ? I have my fingers crossed for the future but CB and the whole BOD need to start re-building confidence.
How ironic - TW attacks XTR based on there MIGHT be a placing and trashes the investment proposition TWICE in short time but at the same time is pumping Red Rock (RRR) who have now PLACED stock at .80p - anyone buying the shares at 1.2p in mid September are significantly down right now.
Let us see what he has to say about them ? Probably nothing.
I think the reason Xtract is still under valued is mainly due to the market not believing CB’s forward guidance re time scales or income levels. There may also be some caution re the possibility of a placing (I'm not saying there will be).
CB has said many things in the past that have not happened, either ever, or much later than stated: ie
Share talk interview 2 Aug 2019
1. CIL plant should be in production Q1 2020 (pre covid issues)
2. Possibility of gravity production end 2019 (pre covid issues)
3. working on multiple of earnings income should be $800K to $1M a month this time next year. (ie By Aug 2020)
From Zambia and manica.
The $1M income a month (Manica + Zambia) is now moved from Aug 2020 to end of 2021. When will we get $500K a month manica income? Will income levels be as CB has implied?
IMHO, I expect the mine to be built and income levels to substantially rise, and therefore the SP will follow and rerate.
However, I think due to so many false dawns here, many now want CB to ‘show us the money’ before they believe it. That could be the reason why we are still only valued at £5M.
Of course, AIMHO
I have to say I am baffled how Xtract can only be valued at circa £5m when projected free cash from Manica is expected to be $500k a month. I listened again to the paywall interviews conducted by TW mid year and Bird was very precise, $500k free cash a month from Manica and by Q4 next year another $500k free cash coming from Zambia, it was these numbers that got TW licking his lips and instigating a 'buy' note to his followers via Hot Stock.
As far as I can see nothing has changed (maybe a small Covid delay) at Manica but other than that nothing material, so why have the shares lost circa 1p in quick time?
The drop seems to be related to initial take profit advice from the tip sheet (there was 100% gain after all) the shares stabilised around the 1.6p mark and looked to be recovering before we had the 'Novum/Bellis' assault by TW. Since then the shares have slumped to 1.25p resulting in a drop of market cap of £4.5m from the recent 2.25p high.
I would imagine Bird must be fuming at the assault by TW via his paywall blog and then his Bearcast, in the summer Bird spent the best part of 6 hours providing content to TW for his 2 online 'Events' If Bird is foolish enough to place stock via Novum then he plays directly into the hands of TW, as such TW will harp and brag infinitum - delivering more negativity towards the company.
It is for the above reason I think Bird will not place stock, so far Bird has failed to respond or quell the rumours other than saying he knew of no reason why folk are selling as nothing has changed.
My view is Bird needs to break away from Novum, this association is a poor one in my considered opinion, TW has made it clear how he feels about this broker and a certain employee, why play into TW's hands therefore, get shot of them and move on to someone like SI Capital who are well regarded in the small cap space.
Let us see what happens next week, the shares look cheap, we all know how quickly sentiment turns, the RSI is also totally bombed out so from a technical perspective the shares are seriously oversold.
Good luck all.
Should get the interims next week.
It will be interesting to see the cash balance at end of June, which should give as a good idea of cash burn and if any additional financing is required before Manica starts. Would be lovely to get a RNS before saying that equipment has been successfully delivered to site!
Hmm looks like it ..don't worry only took the SP down 10% :0(..it's a bit strange the SP landed at the previous share issue price..
Is that a reversal of that 17.85k sell we saw earlier in the week ? Some share holding manipulations going on ....
If you read note 3 of the 2019 financial report (going concern section) it’s quite clear the company expect to have to raise cash within the next 12 months (from release of 2019 accounts) based on there future cashflow projections.
I find it hard to believe that they would need to raise once Manica is up and running so they must have been referring to the interim period.
As such if the free milling/alluvial gold can get us through or affordable finance is available to us to prevent dilution I’d take this as a bonus.
Cheers
James
I would like to think / hope CB would put on hold all non-essential work rather than do a placing to continue work in Kalengwa or Eureka.
The free milling Gold should produce some additional income by November and even more by December. Even IF required, is It worth doing a placing to cover just the next 6 weeks?
I hope thats CB's mind set as well.
I still don't see the need for a placement. OK, we're not flush with cash but our greatest need for cash would be to fulfill our responsivity to drill in aus . That deal is yet to be ratified by government, should have ben Aug I believe, so we have a bit of breathing space there...
I wonder who is actually behind MMP, Colin said, for the 1st time ever, they were backed by London based entities who have clout.
You can never rule out that $20m buyout option therefore.
I think Bird will surprise, I suspect he is angered by the 'commentary' concerning Novum and may decide to not place stock but seek alternative funding IF it is required. I am sure he has options.
The RSI is now in heavily oversold territory, a bounce is overdue.
Hopefully MMP will be driving the delivery as much as CB. They have more to gain then we do.
It's not his kit to get over the border.
I do agree Andrew however, I'm also very much aware of how slack CB can be in terms of timescales.
If he is slack in getting kit over the border, and the C19 cases jump back up following the border opening I'm sure they will be shut down pretty sharpish and our chance will be lost for, possibly, months!
SA infection rates are going down so I can't believe there will be such a dramatic change in the next week to stop the opening of the borders.
Borders will be open for business on 1 October so I am sure nothing will delay the shipment now. I would like to think CB will be making sure MMP are packing the parts ready for 1 October shipment.
I would hope / expect delivery should be in the first week of October and that we will be getting an RNS when items arrive.
I would think that will start the rerate and we should be back over 2p by end of October / early November....hopefully.
I don't think there will be a placing but if there is it would be one hell of an opportunity to top-up prior to rerate imo.
SA borders closing down again would be very bad news! - I really do hope CB & MMP are preparing to get the kit transported VERY early October!
This is not a time to be missing targets Colin!
beyond a placing ahoy what bad news might you have in mind littlewing?
( if there was a placement at say a bad - but not worst - case of 1.15p ish it would be a - nother- kick in the butt granted, but far from a disaster imho.. and more might buy in here off the back as coffers full enough for sure then til good production revenues kick in ..etc.. My worst case btw is this goes down towards 1p in anticipation of a placing and the placing happens around that level or even a small bit lower)
Ps : The though has of course occurred to me that size sellers here from 2p to 1.25p will in the not too distant future, in some shape or form, participate in a placing here at under 1.25p
The 17.85k sell at 10:20 is what did today's damage. I hope this and those big sells from friday are not with imminent bad news.
I'm Definitely IN for a quick profit again which is not all that far away (IMHO of course)