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I'm not so sure about that. I think people just sell through fear. Also, as Andrew pointed out the other day, possibly gambling on the bad news outcome. Surely any amount of bad news must be supported in some way by Fairbride and it's independently audited DFS, or am I speaking through my a**e.
I too think word has got out that all is not well. makes no sense those 250,000 and 500,000 round figure sells if a SP lifting deal was immenent. More likely another Colin Dilution Bird special gift to shareholders around the corner. I wish we weren't kept in the dark... Bird has not kept us in the loop "warts and all" as he promised.
Thanks for the response and fully respect your opinion (although I disagree with point 2&3).
Regarding a possible offer, I think if XTR were in talks then in all likely hood there would be a leak and the share price wouldn’t be trading down! Plus I’ve seen several RNS to say that a company are in talks re a possible offer etc (although granted when the share price is spiking) hence not sure why we wouldn’t have had something along those lines. So for me this doesn’t add up. But more than happy to be spectacularly wrong!
TBH I think the news black-out may be my fault. I posted here that with the present POG, even a halfwit should be able to make profit out of a gold mine. I think my post has sent CB running for the hills. LOL.
Andrew - You could be wrong, but I am inclined to support your view - for each and every reason you have given. It makes no sense that CB should delay q4 results for so long if they were bad. Good post.
No one knows which way this will fall and it’s all opinion. My rationale for saying it’s more likely to be good news is:
1. If the delay was due to Sino going or poor results I would think we would know by now. CB must realise the delay is doing as much damage to the sp as that bad news would have.
2. As others have said, maybe CB is not allowed to release news re manica if negotiations are ongoing re some sale
3. The longer the delay the more likelihood of it being down to negotiations (IMHO)
Thinking more about Sino leaving (rather than just bad Q4 results) , although production has about halved over the last year, the profit due to POG rising would have risen enough to ensure their overall all profit would not have changed much. So maybe they are have no reason to leave even though production is going down.
This is all speculation and I’m not saying its 90/10 in favour of good news but more like 60/40 (IMHO).
Of course I may be wrong.
Other than wanting the silence to relate to a potential sale scenario what rationale do you have for this conclusion? Dont get me wrong id be buzzing if this happened (assuming above $20m) however i dont understand why you draw this conclusion? It certainly hasnt been the case any other times a news black out has happened for this company or many others (that im aware of)
Good post. I agree with your analysis and I think others are coming around to the same conclusion re part / full sell.
For example, on twitter I believe Oilplayer2009 made the same points. For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not saying you are Oil player2009 on twitter. He has a tendency to ramp the hell out of XTR, for his personal gain, and I am sure you wouldn’t do that.
As you rightly say, all is not lost ! Lets see what tomorrow brings.
I hope that post wasn’t too annoying :-)
Bird has form in over promising and under delivering, we all know that, you also have to be careful when he mentions something company related, I recall him saying in November that GLR's small scale Mining Licence was only a matter of formality but now, approaching March, nothing.
Most of AIM has been taken down on small volume over the last week, in fact XTR has been weak all month, I do not put this down to either good or bad news but a total news blackout, Bird has form in this respect too.
Historically I have made money from his companies (eg bought JPL under 1p) but just recently I feel his age is catching up with him and his motivation is lacking, he is a wealthy man, in a nutshell he does not need the money.
His determined statements mid 2019 about bringing in new management into XTR has not happened why not? We can speculate but I would not be surprised if he is trying to sell Fairbride or maybe the whole Manica project, this would explain the news drought.
What we do know is the shares move fast on modest demand so all is not lost !
I would take 3.5p just to be out of this share , its been all broken promises from the start
I'm not at all derogatory regarding my investment. As I've said, more than once, Manica had/has the potential to be a nice little project. Which is why I invested.
Now how my investment is being handled, that's a differnt story!
XTR is definitely not one of that handful - so absolutely not. I simply choose not to be unrealistic with my expectations.
My point is, if you can find an AIM company with a 100% focused BOD that has sufficient potential to make money for you then why don't not invest there instead of XTR?
If you can't find such a company then why carp about XTR or, for that matter, any other AIM company ? Unless, of course, it makes you feel better about your investments, in which case then carp away! ( I'm sure you would anyway, as you certainly don't need my permission to be as derogatory as you want to about any of your investments.)
Comon CE, you're such a Bird 'fan-boy' - You really think he putting all his efforts into this company?!
100% fully focused BOD would leave only a handful of AIM companies that you could invest in?
What we should expect, at the very least CE is a person in charge who is fully focused on optimising a company and not splitting his time between 6 others!
I have a feeling that news is getting close now.
It may not all be good or what we were hoping for, on the other hand some of it may be better than we think, but it should at least give an accurate representation of the current state of affairs for the company so that we can all make informed investment choices, and that's about as much as we can expect at this stage of the game...
The way I feel about it at the mo is that if it gets any where near 2p I will take that and run tbh.
'Unless, that is, something is causing a hold to be placed on any news release?'
I'm hoping this could be the reason and this may point to a part / full buy-out?? Surely Sino leaving / very bad alluvial results have now all, or nearly all, been priced in so no reason to delay that news. So maybe that isnt the reason for the delay and its to do with something else which is good news??
Either way, I agree with James re the upside continues to outweigh the downside. CB bought at 2.85P and has millions of options between 1p and 2p. I would be amazed if it doesnt, at least go above 2p again.
Is it nota actually against AIM rules not to pulbilsh the quarterly results? or in fact any releasing any news, in a timely manner, that could affect the share price? - Unless, that is, something is causing a hold to be placed on any news release?
All very frustrating and there's no way of contacting anyone in the company, its a complete joke.
I’m not sure any there is any news that could be used as an excuse for the delay in publishing the Q4 Alluvial results (either good or bad) I guess the results continue to be quite immaterial and so the decision has been taken to report them half yearly (save RNS expense/Time etc).
The wait is quite frustrating, however I continue to hold for the hard rock which I see as being quite likely to happen (I have some doubt due to lack of public knowledge about the partner). Despite my concerns the upside continues to outweigh the downside for me, plus there is more potential (jam tomorrow) from the copper plays.
I think many are now just gambling that the delay is due to bad news - and they may be correct. But even if it is bad news is there likely to be a big fall?? Surely most of the bad news is priced in after this fall??
If the delay is due to good news, then the sp will rocket. Actually it may well now rocket on average news!!
Even if CB has had enough, wants out and has a fire sale, he must be able to get $20M min for manica as knock down price with POG at the level it is - so that's 3.5p !!
Is CB not independently very well to do off the back of some previous success in African Mining? This, his salary and indeed total involvement here is peanuts for him and for honour/pride and perhaps not even worth the distraction in his now old age. Hence why I now strongly feel he should get a new CEO in of just sell on Manica 'Ardrock ownership for a decent/good price etc..
The s/p going down so much recently off the back of macro and micro fears would make it a very painful thing if the next update contains more seriously bad news than good news.... causing another significant hit to the s/p, even from this mornings latest awful levels.. So I'm very much hoping the balance of news in the next RNS is either good or very good. (and in truth wish my position was smaller again here now.. although I'd change my mind quickly on that if good news drops :-) )
Lots of 500,000 and 250,000 sells recently.... somebody knows whats around the corner by the looks of it. Where is the low hanging fruit revenue from Omnia ? It seems Bird is only interested in new explorations when we need him to deliver revenue for shareholders. Not good.
scam of a company living on the aim gravy train! this has promised so much for so long. i bought in a long time ago before the conversion at 6 Ish so well under water. came to terms a while back that Bird is literally feathering his own nest, like many bent ceo's on aim. coro,prem,among the existing,and many that have now disappeared.All rotten to the core,and only self interest at heart.