Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Only 1% of the shares have been traded, and every sold has been bought.
total overreaction, expect this to bounce 20% from here.
Agree, over reaction, nearly 50% drop is way too much...30%, fair enuf... but 50% is ridiculous!
Loading up in the background, should start to bounce back very soon
1. A lot of debt that needs servicing utilising higher interest rates.
2. Court case / appeal still to complete and pay £40 Mill fine + to pay other sides costs and I read they had put a bill in for $16 Mill.
3. Reduced orders.
4. Customers requesting later shipment dates for orders means the market does not require their product for the foreseeable .
Personally I think it was overvalued previously and the market just got ahead of itself.
Bit of an over reaction from the markets. nay news coming out is causing big drops.
However you can see that funds are taking full advantage and buying all the cheap shares up.
Should climb back 15% fast
40% fall in SP seems harsh despite the (temporary?) loss of a steady dividend and concerns over banking covenants. Management appear capable of weathering this storm.
@Moonshine: That is some contrast in your comments, it just goes to show that 2 Months is a long time in this business!
Conserve cash ? dividend cut coming ? very disapointing coming so soon after upbeat report
Good news, and more good news
with yesterdays news. Not the loss, that was expected. Not the CFO leaving, which was unexpected. It was the lack of any sort of information about the ongoing court case beyond the cost so far. We know it was the sole cause of last years loss. We need to have some idea of the impact it will have on this year and the long term future, and we got nothing
Up another 10% since your post Badgernator. Signs of the world economy sidestepping Russian sabotage and getting back to business? Not much interest on this board, but never has been, really. Still cheap by historical standards.
It's interesting that there has been another surge in orders from the healthcare sector - I'm guessing that's from Chinese customers. Contrary to the panic expressed by a poster just a couple of quarters ago, it's been a fantastic year overall, and next year might be even better with China starting to open up again and other issues apparently easing. We probably need an acceptable resolution of the court case to see this really flying again, imo, but it's on the right track again under this management, with a sound strategies pointing to significant further growth
Almost a 10% rise and still no interest in this share. IMO this is still cheap, when trust returns it will go higher
'Net debt at 31 December 2022 was £152.0 million, compared with £118.7 million
at 30 September 2022, reflecting a $44 million collateral payment for a bond held
against the damages awarded against the Group in the Comet Legal Action in the
US, which remains ongoing. Working capital benefited from inventory beginning
to unwind in Q4 and although the pace of that unwind was slower than expected,
it is expected to accelerate in H1 2023 as supply chain conditions continue to
normalise. The Group expects financial leverage to reduce significantly during
2023.
In addition, XP has recently secured greater banking covenant flexibility from its
lenders with the net debt to EBITDA covenant now required to be less than 3.5x
at December 2022, 3.25x in June 2023 and 3.0x in December 2023. The Group
was comfortably within these covenant levels at the 2022 year end and expects to
remain well inside them during 2023 and beyond. The greater flexibility also
highlights the ongoing support from our lending banks.'
https://corporate.xppower.com/storage/reports/2022-Q4&Full-Year_trading-update.pdf
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/xp-power-sees-2022-profit-meeting-views-revenue-rising-271673515433
'XP Power Ltd. said Thursday that it sees its 2022 profit meeting market expectations and revenue rising on year.
The company said 2022 adjusted operating profit is expected to be in the middle of the range of current market expectations. The current range of analysts' expectations for adjusted operating profit for the year is 41 million to 46 million pounds ($49.8 million-$55.9 million).
Revenue for the fourth quarter rose to GBP87.6 million, bringing full-year revenue to GBP290.6 million, up 21% on year.
The proposed dividend for the fourth quarter is expected to be not less than 36 pence per share, representing a minimum total dividend of 94 pence a share for the year.'
Trading statement due 12th Jan, 2022 end year results due 28th Feb
https://corporate.xppower.com/investors/financial-calendar
Trading statement due next Tuesday (10th Jan)
Last years triggered a massive fall after results slightly below expectations due to a range of issues including supply chain problems and delivery costs. We've only seen a partial recovery from that, with the current SP less than half what it was then. A lot of that is due to continued uncertainty over the implications of the court loss.
Not sure what to expect, but hope for another solid quarter and an attempt by management to clarify future prospects convincingly.
https://www.eetasia.com/xp-power-building-its-largest-global-manufacturing-facility-in-malaysia/
Approx £42M project to build XPPs biggest factory so far. 'Expected to be fully operational by the second quarter 2024...once completed, will employ approximately 1,200 people.'
It looks like JP Morgan closed their short position earlier in the month. GLG partners were down to 1.06% when they last notified on 10th November. 0.5% of that was from the end of June, when the price was around 2900, so it's still doing well, but the rest of it is probably underwater. These decreasing short positions certainly contributed to the rally.
Reported short positions can be downloaded, in spreadsheet form, from here: https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions
The data is incomplete though, because the minimum reporting threshold is 0.1%, meaning you cannot tell when a position has been closed completely, but using the extra information on LSE you can make an educated guess
"– this has been just another ‘false’ mini-rally and is likely over now. (Probably the best rally so far in that period).
I expect the SP will revert to descending next week/weeks."
Wrong yet again, Velo. Your wayward analysis has led you to deeply, almost comically inaccurate predictions here, time and time again. Your comment about "salivating" over lost opportunities seems like mere projection, because it is you who missed the opportunity offered here when the SP was around £15, just as you missed out in 2019. Both were golden opportunities. There is little point in following a share if you never commit. Aggressively insulting those who disagree with you isn't too smart either, why not just answer back politely? You might gain a better, more lucrative perspective. That's what a discussion board is for, not pointless name calling. Hopefully you are making some money on other shares, although not many have risen as far or as fast as this one, currently close to 50% in less than a month. Good luck.
" adamant all will come out well"
I've never said that, as you well know Velo. It is funny how people like to put words in other people's mouths as if misrepresenting others bolsters their own position - it surely has the opposite effect, as it demonstrates a lack of self-confidence and a reliance on dishonesty? I'm not considering topping up now, but fortunately I already did so earlier, fairly near the low. As I said in a post at the time, the conditions seemed ripe for a change in SP trajectory. So far, so good.
The main risk here is to do with the lack of information from the company about the court case, imo, not the issues you are focusing on. The fundamental business strategy has been successful, but IF there is a problem with the roll out of new RF products then growth prospects may be compromised by an unquantifiable amount. This uncertainty may be the most weighty factor affecting the SP. The other issues: debt, retirement of senior staff, exchange rate losses, high wages due to covid, shortage of supplies, high freight costs, chaotic government, expected cyclical downturn in semiconductors, etc, are all important, but transient issues, imo.
The fact that so many issues weighed down on the SP at once, on top of the court case, gives considerable potential for recovery, imo, providing they continue to ease.
“ Have developments changed your mind about this one Velo, or do you think this is just a 'dead cat bounce . . .'?
--------------------
Hi B/BlahDoh,
Nope.
In fact, still concerned about poor liquidity. Last accounts revealed insufficient profit being produced to meet/cover interest payments.
(Shorters aren’t sniffing around because they blindly used pot luck by spinning a roulette wheel to decide: who’s next?) If they’re reducing then perhaps, they’re reducing risk as they near their personal forecasts of true valuation?
Last year’s highest ever record Net Debt of £32.4m is likely to be in triple figures this year at circa probably £121m !
Don’t think it’s a case of a dead cat bounce but more of repeating, mini-rallies (occurring on numerous occasions on the way down) since the big retrace in the SP first commenced way back this time last year – this has been just another ‘false’ mini-rally and is likely over now. (Probably the best rally so far in that period).
I expect the SP will revert to descending next week/weeks.
I was allowing it to rise as high as that £24 in mid-August, to see if it could break past that prior high – but like all the other rallies, none of them have yet bested their nearest previous highs. That’s very telling. It’s how we get trapped as investors, salivating to ourselves:
“Ooohh 25% gain, it’s over! Must consider buying/ getting back in/ topping up” etc., etc.,
Would have expected a levelling off by now, but sadly, it’s still locked in a fierce downtrend.
Think there’ll be a new CEO by this time next year, or at the very least he’ll be serving out his notice whilst they complete a head hunt for a replacement CEO. I think he’s toast. He’s wasted funds appealing court cases instead of getting on with things. More interested in protecting his ego than in manning-up.
PS.
“(and I'm "boring boy poster of the year").
- - - - - - -
That was the auto carrot on my phone; thought I’d typed:
‘Roaring Roy roaster of the bear’
: )
Still, if you’re adamant all will come out well, I’ll still be keeping tabs on this stock and post if I change my opinion. It’s my only interest in this stock now
– seeing if the SP can find a floor/ consolidate and identifying that asap near to that occasion if/when it does so.
Good luck!
Have developments changed your mind about this one Velo, or do you think this is just a 'dead cat bounce'? SP movement suggests the shorters got this badly wrong again, just like Lombard and others did in 2019, but time will tell. I hope some readers (if there are any) took your comments with a pinch of salt and got on board around £15, because it has been a rapid 25% gain from there, plus a decent quarterly dividend.
If order intake is sustained into Q4 and component shortages continue to ease, this should have a lot further to go, imo, (and I'm "boring boy poster of the year").
Correction- although the case was brought in California, Comet are a Swiss company specialising in Radio Frequency and X-ray power products. It is unclear where the employees were based.
https://www.comet-group.com/
Although the $40m court loss and associated costs are probably already reflected in the share price, uncertainty remains on any future implications wrt product offerings and development
Maybe old news to some, but this article has some extra details about the case which I haven't heard from XPP or anywhere else:
https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/03/jury-awards-semiconductor-manufacturer-40m-in-trade-secrets-case-against-rival/
It appears that XPP hired employees who brought trade secrets with them from US rivals Comet. Comet originally sued the ex-employees in 2018, but subsequently dropped that action and sued XPP instead. The jury awarded $20m compensation on 2 of 4 trade secrets. The other $20m is punitive damages.
XPP are officially "considering" their next action, but it's unclear what options are available to them.