Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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resource this board. Many thanks. But I bet one or two tools will be along later before opening Monday.
Good numbers here and very good research done by you all on this board. WTI does seem to be the cheapest copper recovery play. A probable 50k tons pa by 2020 at a margin of $2,500 gives $125mil which equates to c.�90mil compared to a current mcap of �21mil seems incredible. Potential upside is enormous
I agree Mannan. Now it is clear why the sp dropped so quickly and the true value of these transactions sinks in. Also there are more near term price drivers the deeper you look through RNS details. Added value isn’t going to take years as some have suggested. I will add next week anyway...;0))
TDT, you may well be right. I am not going to disagree with your numbers showing annual copper production in the range 57k to 72k tons per annum, when Kitumba plus Central Ops are fully operational. My only caveat is that I do not think WTI wil expand to this level until copper is somewhere north of $8,000 /ton. As I am pretty confident that copper will exceed $8,000 within a couple of years, maybe sooner, this caveat is not really a 'disagreement' with your forecasts. In my post I suggested 50k tons per annum when we include Kitumba + Central Ops. This number was deliberately conservative. (I just can't help being conservative with numbers, I am an accountant - sorry). Based on my numbers, I stated that WTI has "HUGE potential upside." Based on your numbers, the upside is somewhere above and beyond HUGE.
looking for strong bounce in coming week
Mrremmy, I like the chart, just one point for clarification: the right hand side shows Zinc up 50%, but zinc is actually up nearly 75% from the Berg Aukas valuation /ton.baseline of $2000
https://twitter.com/harvrem/status/962634122710659072 Berg Aukas Value Pls it�s rough chart extension , guesstimation ,
Thanks Fundamental!!! Anyone have any idea how long it would take for Namibia regulatory body to approve the transaction? And roughly how quickly WTI can start extracting the ore (worst/best case scenario)? Also, why don't we get cracking with C. Ops's again, it's ready to go isn't it? Although Pedro did mention board seemed a bit hesitant at AGM...
Trickydickytwo My thoughts are the same , hope to hear some news shortly , Refinancing could be a major turn here too , I can see a offtake deal being added too to get things running ,
The valuation report originally posted by TDT is at https://www.dropbox.com/s/4ag0unim14muqrg/berg-aukas-valuation-21-may-2014-v5%20copy.pdf?dl=0 I used the graph on page 15. NPV at $2000/ton is about $29m, but on the right hand sde with a 15% increase in Zinc price, NPV is about $49m. Therefore, NPV rises by about $20m for ever 15% rise in Zinc from the baseline estimate of $2000/ton.
https://www.pembridgeresources.com/component/rsfiles/download-file/files?path=Reports-and-presentations%2Fberg-aukas-valuation-21-may-2014-v5.pdf Page 15 nickel invester
'Sensitivity analysis shows that NPV increases by about $20m (after tax) for every 15% rise in commodity prices' Fund - sorry but just to Clarify, where exactly does it show this in the report - are you picking that from the charts? Many thanks
Patters, to answer your question, my specialism is accounting/finance and I did a very rough Net Present Value estimate for Berg Aukas. This is based on a 'conservative' 10% discount rate. I posted this last Monday and I have pasted my original post below. My estimate is based on the Berg Aukas BFS sensitivity analysis on page 15 of the 'drop-box' link posted by TDT last Monday. The NPV estimate of $129m is after all taxes. This is equivalent to about 9 pence per share for WTI. As the latest share price is only 2.1 p, I believe that this barely reflects the 'value' of Tschudi. Effectively, anyone buying at 2.1p is getting Berg Aukas + Kitumba + Central Ops for free. The really HUGE potential upside for WTI is if copper heads higher in coming months/years. Every expert commentator quoted on this board is confident that copper is heading higher based on highly predictable supply and demand factors. When Kitumba + Central Ops are in production, WTI will be selling roughly 50,000 tons a year. Therefore for every $1,000 increase in copper, WTI will make an extra $50 million a year. This is for a company with a market cap of �22 million! I believe that there is no listed copper producer in the entire world which is more 'highly geared' to benefit from rising copper prices. A good way to look at WTI shares is that they are a cheap 'call option' on copper (and also zinc, lead and vanadium since WTI owns 90% of Berg Aukas). I hope this helps, F. MY EARLIER POST: Based on a very conservative 10% discount rate, project NPV = $29m after tax, based on Zinc being $2,000/ton. Sensitivity analysis shows that NPV increases by about $20m (after tax) for every 15% rise in commodity prices. Zinc is up 75%, therefore 5 X $20m = $100m. $100m + original $29m = $129m. This is worth about 9 PENCE PER SHARE to WTI, after all taxes and even though future cash flows (NPV) is heavily discounted at 10% interest rate.
Here�s a interesting article from December 2015 , just before the lows in copper and other commodities https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/heres-a-hedge-fund-embracing-commodities-not-running-away/article27629618/ 2018 is mentioned as the year �quote � The turnaround is going to come in 2018," Mr. Lewnowski said. "The peak price cycle was in 2011 and these cycles tend to last seven years. Nickel might actually be interesting next year. A lot of people hate it. Seventy percent of mined production is losing money. That's a situation that cannot last."
On Otjihase and Matchless ,Berg Aukas mine opening together or close together , makes sense using the concentrator at otijhase ,and both have 10 years left , Another link from the past , https://economist.com.na/8600/mining-energy/china-africa-in-quest-to-commercialise-berg-aukas/, was this the plan . https://www.woodmac.com/reports/metals-berg-aukas-zinc-mine-16305878 Shows how much ECE they payed for there share ,
Sorry for dumb point: but can someone confirm the real value we are dealing with based on the Berg Aukas RNS acquisition: - JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate of 1.23Mt @ 15.47% Zn, 3.84% Pb and 0.33% V2O5 (Indicated classification) using a cut-off grade of 3.0% Zn. - JORC-compliant Ore Reserve Estimate of 1.7Mt @ 11.16% Zn, 2.76% Pb and 0.23% V2O5 (Probable classification) at a 5% Zn equivalent cut-off - Post-Tax NPV10 of US$29m - Post-Tax IRR of 25% I am not really that familiar with the buzz words used :(, I attempted my own calculations to try and attribute total accumulated value to the three commodities mentioned, but cannot be totally sure of my workings, please can someone lay it out in simple terms (sorry!)? Anyone have any idea how long it would take for Namibia regulatory to approve the transaction? And once approved, how long before WTI can start mining it (as read from earlier poster this could be fairly quick to get up and running!)? Hope everyone is having a good weekend - Patters