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Ian - I agree I think the market is waiting for ratification. Like AIMing I'm not worried about it. It's like Tema they are getting on with it whilst waiting for the formalities unlike Iran and the Dec '18 African contract (which I think is still a possibility -eventually!) where they didn't do anything post signing.
I think in many ways it would be better to get these new MSCs up and running before another MSC lands unless they can fund it without a share issue. The new banking facilities may certainly help with that particularly if it helps arrange UK export finance facilities. I suspect AIMing is right about KSA being 2022, but BF seems to be moving at pace so that could potentially arrive later this year.
Dodger , DRC has a superb NPV. Multiples of the current Mkt Cap. I think anyone getting in around these levels is going to do very well.
Aiming agree with that. Markets waiting for that ratification. According to PF its a formality (as per AGM and also more recent email) saying same ) but with there being a history of a signed contract that came to nothing (Iran) the market is (perhaps??)rightly sceptical.
African governments are not renowned for speed. Assuming all proceeds as expected then i can see a minimum 200- 300% rise here at some point over the next 6 -12months.
Arden are giving same message that ratification is a formality but they are not independent so the Market wants to see it imo.
Nothing is priced in at all at this mcap. I’m over weight in here as bought a chunk at 6p pre placing and then bought double the amount again at 4p area. I’m still sorely tempted to add at this price as it could be easy money.
Risk reward looks better than ever but always some risk in aim shares..
DrM: yes, i think the DRC is truly game changing, the market is yet to be convinced. i'm hoping that's partly because of the lack of announcement over ratification (i'm not concerned), but it could well just be mistrust of the company after years of under performance.
I just wonder if another MSC could kick start the SP before DRC money starts to really flow in 2022.....but then again, there will be (reasonable) concern that they'll start printing shares like mad again.
I do think that once this moves it really will fly....until then i can take the opportunities to add at these levels.
Even DRC back at 1mill passengers they had pre covid is $25mill revs. If they are profitable at $6mill with mostly fixed costs then you can see they size of it. The added carrot is the DRC cargo screening deal that seems to be linked and could arrive. Its via the same decision makers you would think. It has the potential to be as big again in terms of revenue. So for my money, they don't even need any new MSCs for a multi bagger. If DRC at full blast in 2023 then its lovely stuff.
I’m totally discounting Certific (and Iran for that matter)….our real rewards will come from actual MSCs.
I still have hopes for KSA and that Burkina Faso MOU becoming something….but both are probably 2022 business.
I’d like to finish my pension top up pre the 13th I think….feeling bullish.
agreed Aiming..... pete has doubled the share count in a year and the market cap still sits sub £20M [just as it did when there were 160M shares @ 11p in early 2020].........so on paper it looks like those 2 new MSCs don't exist, and maybe until the work actually starts they are discounted by the market.... which is a pity but Pete has form......... next Friday should be very interesting in terms of progress on revenue at Tema and our little side line with Certific...... SL will be what it will be.......... and Pete will want to talk about returning to double digit growth etc.....but I suspect the progress at DRC is what we want to know about next week and if there has been progress on ratification or confirmation that sept hasnt slipped, if its all slipped because the Government are slow blah blah....then we will be back in the 4s........ if its a good update.... then back in the 6s............. simple as that really.....B
Dodge: don't get me wrong, I'm as annoyed as anyone (bar aiming2021) about the raises...they're costing me a fortune in averaging down.
I honestly believe that DRC is exactly the sort of contract that you're talking about...and for the record i think that Tema will be a really decent contract over time.
if they raise again i'll be absolutely livid.....they really need some other form of funding for future contracts....they now have 4 MSCs and they really need that predictable revenue to be used for debt funding.
this is a hugely operationally geared company and they're perilously close to tipping over in to massive bottom line growth...i hope!
Aiming, okay, i get that but they really need a project that ultimately has positive npv and decent payback period, or it is just endless dilution.
Dodge: "Why cant the clients own the capex..?" - because that's not our business model. our model is that it doesn't cost the client anything....that's why we win business whilst being a tiny player. It's a great model...if you have a decent share price or lines of credit and can raise the capital cheaply....we've failed so far with that part of the model.
lets see what next Friday brings.......Pete is chasing for the rabbit now, he always has one spare for such events. B
Well if they are on for the £0.9mill profit Arden have predicted for this year and then the £5.3mill PBT for 2022 there will be a lot of haters crying into their cornflakes as the SP responds accordingly over the next year.
You do realise by comments referring to institutional demand are in relation to someone in a mental
Institute buying shares? Always the same, any win followed by capex. Why cant the clients own the capex, its all a lie. Quotes are always revenue. Could you imagine fooler making a comment about positive npv, investment return, positive EBIT, i couldnt!
Double digit to get a mention 6/4 favourite
he's a waste of space, just keeping the family trough topped up for the fat gits to snort
Fooler is not going to play hardball with institutions. More than happy to do mates rates placing and get the money than caring about the SP.
I'm not sure i see it rising into the results, the market now wants something concrete.
I'm sure he's gutted by the share price movement, i know i am. but then i honestly believe that the latest raise was a bad idea. Granted there was no discount, but if there was institutional demand then they should have had to buy in the market and thus pushing up the price a bit.
I agree Aiming...... I suspect that detail is often lacking or we find out after the fact..... Peter always holds a little back... He now has Institutional Investors to keep on board, so he has to be able to perform on the day.......... May or may not get a bit of a rise leading up to the results..... so many burnt fingers her, you can see the pile of ash from space...... I still think Pete is bruised from having such a poor response to the 2 MSCs... [no more than a 30% up lift], that he will be as upbeat as he can get away with......... B
my hope is that they can get the SP moving a little by giving us some more details and the progress of the 2 recent MSCs. Because i feel the market seriously undervalued them, there is scope for serious movement without actually having to win other contracts.......but as is often the case, the SP may well not move on results day.
If it follows the same format as last years half year report we should get:
Financial Highlights
Operational Highlights
Comment from the big man [or in this case Pasty Pete]
Any views on what may be in each category.... should see what Certific has brought to the party plus improvement in SL and TEMA...... HoP went live etc..... Pete may even mention the DRC start date being on schedule and his expected H2 outcomes...... B
IanB............ so it is, how exciting!. Should be a catalyst for some movement here.......Peter is bound to provide an outlook that is very rosy... might even confirm that all on track for a sept DRC launch.................... B
Next week… 13th Aug on wsg financial calendar.