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"If we all knew that there could be delays (which is what everyone agrees now), why quote a figure for 2019 which was not only more than double the company's figure, but also did not take into account any delays."
We all know that thermo-nuclear war could break out at any moment, but very few people seem to factor that in to any business forecasts. Why is that?
Have you any plans for pastimes after WRES gets into full production?
jaf, that's a good example, but you've failed to take into account that in July 2018, K3VMC didn't know the difference between revenue and EBITDA ! His education has now been improved and we shouldn't see any more of these schoolboy errors. If I put the July 2018 market prices into my model, I get exactly $40m EBITDA for a full years production. At that time though, the concentrator was due to be finished in Q1 2019, so a full years production wasn't possible for 2019.
As you know, I go by the company's figures so that is what I quote. Unlike you, I do not pretend to know more than them so any figures I would put forward would be based on theirs.
I am now waiting, like most of the market, for real production and cost figures. Even the company does not know when that will happen, hence '2019' in the old presentations being changed to 'Year 1' now.
I rubbish your figures because they are so wrong. If we all knew that there could be delays (which is what everyone agrees now), why quote a figure for 2019 which was not only more than double the company's figure, but also did not take into account any delays.
'I don't recall any "over-hyped high potential EBITDA figures" on here.'. So quoting figures way above what even the company says they can achieve is not over-hyping. At that point, our conversation ends again.
Au contraire, Kev. For example, when the loan was announced, I pointed out the possible problems that might occur if production was delayed. I was, of course, promptly accused of being negative by the fan club (of which you are indeed a founder member).
jaf, I don't recall any "over-hyped high potential EBITDA figures" on here. We see figures based on the design output of the La Parrilla plant, expected opex provided by the company and market prices of product. The 2 trolls come on here and provide no explanation of why they expect the company to not achieve its objectives. One of the reasons I invested in the company was the low level of opex. This will make it profitable through the whole commodity cycle over the long term. Another reason was the low technical risk. We will be using state of the art processing techniques on a well understood scheelite ore, unlike the train wreck that was WLFE.
It is not strange to me that on this board anyone praising the company gets many more 'Recommends' than those who are less enthusiastic. After all, if you have £50,000+ invested in a company, as many do here, you will want as much good publicity as you can get.
However, to accuse anyone who has any negative thoughts about this company as being a troll with an agenda (apparently you can't have one without the other) is a trifle over the top. When does an over-hyped high potential EBITDA figure become no better than a low expectation ?
jaf - I suspect you are referring to the "rampers" who put forth possible revenue and EBITDA figures. These are just simple if/then scenarios of the company's possible future financial health. It's part of the investment decision process. I always base my figures on current market prices of APT and tin and opex of $110/mtu. You are free to put forward your own expectations if you wish.
Perhaps. But as you say, 'we've already had one self-declared troll who stated that "it was nothing personal, just business"'. When are the many rampers on here going to have the honesty to admit the same ?
jaf - the trolls have been wrongfooted by the delays just like the rest of us. There has been buying and selling. Just because it's not obvious, doesn't mean it's not happening. We've already had one self-declared troll who stated that "it was nothing personal, just business".
For 10 of the last 12 months, the sp has been below 0.5p which has given the 'trolls' (as you put it) more than ample opportunity to buy in. The lack of large amounts of buying during that time may suggest that buying in is not high on anyone's to-do list at the moment.
Despite the relatively low APT prices in China, European trades are currently in the $275 - $290 range. https://tinyurl.com/yxlb23kw So $275 APT and current price of tin at $17,825 gives revenue of $53m a year at 200 tonnes/m. That's EBITDA of roughly $25m next year if the 200 tonnes a month can be maintained. No wonder the trolls are here for a piece of the action.
Troajan....but the market ain't buying it, in the literal sense too. Numbers in and numbers out. Maybe 500k ozs of gold will do something, I am not convinced as MMs previous would lend an investor to think 'cash call'. 500k open at all ends is ideal for now, may at least create that much missing sizzle. Tungder, I am no mega fan but some of the stuff you write is totally unfounded and I for one would not wish that outcome on the investors and employees. Pick out the faults (there are plenty) but come on...
in the first full year of proddy,estimated. whats that in sterling....lets say £15 million...or slightly over,i cant be bothered to google it and lets say a conservative PE ration of 5. gives wres a rough mcap of £75 million.....or a 3 bagger from here. . and that's not including the 2nd mine.....regua. . not bad