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Bids
Happy
This is what I questioned earlier about forcing the boards hand with an possible special dividend or shareholder returns to be announced March 28 6 days after cut off point for Apollo, assuming all buds rejected.
JG68
That's an excellent question. It is quite a big gap between the last offer and announcement. But, arguably, it took them this long to "carefully consider" the offer etc.
Also, does the fact that they rejected it ahead of impending results give further encouragement of good results / possible contract wins? If so, we will enter into any negotiation from a position of added operational and financial strength?
I expect a leg up when the US opens. I would really like an industry peer to enter the fray but it's very early days. This has a long way to fully play out. We are in the value discovery stage right now.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
oh maybe not...maybe it is just their declaration that they have to make....sorry!
Marathon Asset Management Limited took an opening position of 2.3% yesterday - 16m shares ...possibly a accumulated build up that they may not have announced if the offer hadn't come through ( being under 3% )
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WG./form-83-john-wood-group-plc-tbt2kgubkfljdc3.html
Another point is that the last offer was almost 1 month ago 26 January. Not sure why so long to notify the market and what has happened since.
These kind of unsolicited, informal offers happen all the time and most dont even get notified to the market because they get turned down and nothing further happens....nothing worthy to put to shareholders...
The fact they gave 3 proposals does make this a little more interesting
Maybe something leaked and forced the BOD hand to release something but they must have also wanted Apollo to get serious, or go away ..who knows....
It could quite easily be a strategy by Apollo to buy shares in a 'cheap' company, make an informal 'off the record' offer, leak the 'offer', then sell into the bounce.
Perhaps there isn't really a genuine intention to make an offer. But it suits WG because they can highlight that the company is undervalued and if there are other interested parties it could stir them into action.
Possibly market manipulation but quite clever if this is what's happening....win, win scenario...apart from investors buying into the bounce if it is a false dawn.
The reason Wood outed them is two-fold:
1/ To see if any other bids will be forthcoming.
2/ Going public allows them to consult with major shareholders and canvass their views without falling foul of market regulations (i.e. they couldn't share the news with some shareholders and not others).
In particular, they will want to sound out the intentions of activist Sparta and others. Do they want out at the right price or does the board have their full confidence in the turnaround story etc.?
I think this goes for 270-280 and, with another industry bidder joining the mix who can integrate, streamline and cut costs, it could possibly go for 300.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Precisely. My point is they looked, saw what it was worth and thought a healthy profit for them at 230, so is worth more. Even if they come out and say not for us above this. I'd be tempted to buy the dip if it drops again. Not sell in panic on way down. You could try to averqge down and sell, but if I do, I'm only gambling a small bit as I don't want to miss any big ticks up as the shorts try to escape.
Pearsons were offered 870 when trading in high 700s. Now over 900.
This puts a firm marker in sand for true value, which is clearly a chunk above 230! Where and how long to get there....time will tell.
Apollo were in very preliminary unsolicited discussion with THG in Feb 2022 ..and nothing went any further ....
They have form with M & S at the end of 21 and nothing materialised.
This is why I'm wondering if they will acknowledge Wood outing them, and make a statement this afternoon.
What happens if they state later they will not increase that last offer of 230? Sp back down probably, so is this a brief opportunity.
Realitibites
Apollo may take that choice out of your hands .. they could release a statement at any time saying they are walking away and no longer interested.. I’m 10k in profit at moment I’m toying with selling them all but it’s the chance you take now .. £2 or possibly £2.75 plus
Looking into Apollo they have form.
This could just be a publicity stunt to push the price up to more realistic levels.
Look at Pearsons last year and their performance since. Share is trqding higher than the offer price today even though it dipped on news of the rejection but recovered as presumably it was worth the price and Apollo saw a profit from 230 so....
Only question is how greedy you are and how many risks you want to take.
Holding for now but may take some out to safety as it approaches that bid price....at what price? I dunno.
Maybe they are in cahoots with Blackrock who just closed their short here.
TDF the time to buy was before the rise imo.
The start of the day it got to 210 before dipping to 180p and then recovering to £2 and now retracing. There may will be profit taking which could take this back down to buyable dips but it depends on your strategy. I never like buying on a strong up day and usually trim positions in case of a pullback opportunity but even if Apollo that the heads up I see 170/180p being support.
DYOR.
I have dipped my toe in Mary and await developments. I would greatly appreciate it ,if you took a quick look at LIT and gave me your thoughts on their BB.
Aucuba
That time is now.
About time someone bid on this.
Aucuba
I just keep plugging away, buying after a few down days, selling into strength and my average just keeps on falling.
Aim here is to get to 30000 shares at sub £1 average and usually reduce average most weeks. Bit of a risk at times but hasn't failed me yet.
Bought a few banks and insurances and they are going well today LGEN STAN HSBC and WG. or and rebought BP. around the £3 level so a great day so far with all the travel holding up well (I have trimmed so stocks though as you know I will buy back lower.
M.
MaryBr190
I love your optimism!!!
Just waiting for the 10% + day spikes - cannot be that far away.