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From Investor Meeting 13.6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OnxBDSjCAo
Haggis,
I watched the video. Mike makes a strong case for more onshore / near-shore seismic, that's the essence of it. Sitting together with his buddies resulted only in a highly speculative theory that some of the oil that was not cooked prematurely in the Triassic may have migrated towards shore. Nothing about billions of barrels of oil that remain, that is your own interpretation.
To me, Ntorya remains a project with a low PoS. But in the worst case, WEN will lose 9.25 mln on it (plus, of course, a few million bonus shares for management). We can afford it, we've done a LOT worse in the past...
But good luck anyway, and of course I'd love to be wrong on this.
haggismchaggis1; i've lived in Croydon for 50 years, and surveyed every square foot of it......as such i'm an expert on Croydon and there's billions of bbls of oil there and one day we will find them....
Mick,
I don't misunderstand anything, especially your agenda.
If you can't be bothered to watch his video (which is clearly the case) that's your loss, but I'm sure others will watch it and will understand what he's saying. AND it's not just him, it him and several other experts that met up to try and work out where the oil is, and you would know it was not just him if you had actually bothered to watch the video!! No point in making out you know everything, and make out everything you say is fact, when you have not watched the video so do not know everything, and your facts are just your own opinions based on gut feelings, so when you say there's no oil there, you cannot possibly know that, only the drill will prove it, which is something you certainly do know!!
Ah, the world famous Mike Rego... Look Haggis, I think you mistunderstand a few things, but can I kindly suggest you leave your insults and hyping up for the Aminex board? Even if they find only a fraction of the billions of barrels of oil Mike has spotted there, you'll soon be very rich anyway. Organise an Aminex 10p party or so, or perhaps a quiz betting on the barrels of oil found. Oh, and buy more Aminex shares of course...
Mick,
Suggest you go argue that with Mike Rego, he's the expert on Tanzania oil and gas geology, and he says there's billions of barrels of oil there somewhere. Suggest you watch his video from the link I posted, as all the info is in it.
LOL!! I see doom and gloom crustyknob has arrived, although on my filter list already for his pontificating belittling garbage, no doubt here to talk my posts down as usual, but hey ho, it's not my information, it's from someone with a million times more knowledge of Tanzania than him, it's from Mike Rego.
Agreed m2020
Haggis,
Most studies about East Africa's oil potential point towards a premature primary cracking process in the Jurassic, overmature source rocks in the triassic and very deep burial offshore (flashing to gas when pressure is released).
Very unlikely that they will find oil.
https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2013/10488pereira/ndx_pereira.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320981084_Geology_and_hydrocarbon_potential_of_the_East_African_continental_margin_A_review
https://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/bitstream/handle/123456789/8373/788469959.pdf?sequence=1
Mick,
The point in the Mike Rego presentation is that the oil moved up dip from the deep water, pushed there by the high pressure gas. So it's moved past Tembo, past Likonde and the Ntorya wells, with the next up dip test for it being Chikumbi-1. Also the Jurassic is yet to be tested and could also contain oil based on the same theory
Also of interest is the visible progress on 3D Seismic at Ruvuma on the Satellite images.
My recent post from the AEX BB:
I now see two Seismic Survey lines, one either side of the NT-3 Well Pad! There's also some new grid lines which appeared very rapidly recently, to the bottom left of the existing lines that were there a few months ago.
Long link, copy and paste the entire link.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=-10.462754405301705&lng=39.991350173950195&zoom=15&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.9&gamma=1.1&time=2021-12-01%7C2022-06-06&atmFilter=&showDates=false
Check the history of the lines using the calendar at the top of the page. The Satellite passes the area every 5 days, as can be seen by the highlighted dates.
I wonder if during the work to clear the grid for the 3D seismic trucks they found any new oil seeps. That would certainly make things a bit more interesting.
WEN reported "significant" oil shows as well, in nearby Tembo a few years ago, which is very similar to Ntorya (but smaller). The unrisked P50 estimate was 219 MMbbls oil. See link below. I'd take it with more than just a pinch of salt though...
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/wentworth_resources/news/rns/story/rd5odmw
Here's something I posted on the AEX BB a couple of weeks ago, and as you're now in the JV it's probably of interest to you too.
Things could sure start getting interesting as we head towards 3D Seismic results and then drilling.
Who remembers that the oil is believed to have moved up-dip, from the basin to onshore? Who remembers we chased this oil at Likonde and had oil shows, and looked again for it further up-dip at Ntorya where we also had oil shows? And now we are drilling even further up-dip at Chikumbi.
Many TCF's of Gas will be great, but the oil had to go somewhere, and wherever it is there could be a lot of it....
January 05 2010
"Likonde is an onshore prospect, meaning drill costs are lower and while it may be a relatively small scale project for Tullow, it is an entirely new exploration region for the company. The target is located on the Ruvuma licence and is reckoned to have the potential to hold 500 million barrels of oil in place, with estimates of recoverable reserves in excess of 150 million barrels of oil."
And, we haven't even tested the Jurassic yet.... Chikumbi drilling will be doing that.
Finding East & Southern African Oil & Gas conference in London. 2017.
Mike Rego: “The oil is out there, we just have to improve how we look for it"
Neil Ritson: "“Black oil was seen on the cuttings [at the NT-2 well in Tanzania] – now what we will make of that in the next few months to years, I don’t know"
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/148862/industry_consultant_theres_still_oil_to_find_in_east_africa/
Mike Rego presentation, well worth watching.
Scroll down to 'All Video Presentations from Mike Rego' and click on the link there
https://www.findingpetroleum.com/biography/Mike-Rego/c7fce48d.aspx
The key issue here is the lack of liquidity, not so much the spread. With record Q1 production, a net NVP after tax above 100 mln in all scenarios with significant upside, a cash balance of ~22 mln, zero debt, and now even a potentially rewarding additional growth opportunity, the share price should be much higher. Keep in mind WEN's market cap is still only 58 mln (US$)....
Good news but the 8% spread remains a major barrier to entry/exit.
No worries HY, I think WEN have got a good deal here, risk is shared till production revenues come in and the potential upside is significant with WEN shareholders getting by far the majority share and SCIR holders only getting back what the company already invested in the asset on full production and 50 BCF sold.
Good deal by the WEN board and could bring some much needed market interest imo.
GLA
I doubt many will be moving in either direction between AEX and WEN. A lot should move from SCIR to both though.
AEX does has a $35m carry and fully funded to first gas. WEN has the existing production revenues. So six of one, half a dozen of the other?
cperkin, sorry I have not been fully updated on what has been written here or on the AEX board. When I saw today's headline that WEN acquired SCIRs part of the Ruvuma project, my first reaction was "ohh noo" . But after reading the whole PR and looking at the presentation, I am now more positive. The main part of the price (16 musd), is dependent on a successful project, that reduces the risk significantly.
HY, glad you are catching up, been invested here for some time actually and very pleased that WEN holders now have a near time drill (pending formalities) with a large potential upside.
GLA
Check out the AEX presentation, especially slide 11 which shows APT think there's 8.2tcf there, not 2tcf.
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/2022%20AGM%20Presentation.pdf
If I'm not mistaken TPDC has a legal obligation to take a 25% stake in the project, if FID is taken and it is a success. It reduces WEN’s stake to 18,75% (same for Aminex), but we’ll get 25% of the investment back (TPDC receivables)
I think SCIR did very well in the negotiations. the 3 mln advance is already more than half their market cap, and if Ntorya is succesful they will receive another 13 mln (more than twice their market cap).
From the presentation, I notice that TPDC has the right to step in as a an owner of up to 25% of the project (page 12).
Interesting presentation with a timeline to first production
https://wp-wentworth-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/06/Proposed-Ruvuma-Acquisition-Presentation.pdf
We are not used to positive share price reaction on news. Could it be "AEX dissidents" that now have found WEN?
On the SCIR board today, I found one "dissident". Welcome CP we are now on the same boat.
"C'est la vie Dan, shame shareholders here don't get to see any of the Ruvuma upside from here on in, happy with my AEX and WEN holding for Ruvuma asset upside at least.
GLA"