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Careful comparing this to a divi.. it’s a Return of Capital so MC reduces
Your missing nothing.
The market is not efficient as some like to say.
It's irrational at least in the short term.
If it was rational the share price would reflect the NAV minus a bit for risk.
I've done just that. Strange that the sp is showing such weakness right now. Makes me wonder if I'm missing something.
Ex-Dividend Date
Thursday April 25 2024
Pay Date Friday May 10 2024
For your phone reminder!
Tempted to add a few more with the prospect of a 50-odd% gain over the next couple of years or so. A few more dividend payments to come too.
Regardless of the method, the important thing is that we'll receive c. 4.26p per share for 5.12% of the company. So this implies 80p+ in total, as predicted by several other posters on here & way ahead of my forecast of 60p.
Have been told that the ex date applies to the issue of B shares in the same way as to the ex dividend date.
".. B Shares of 1 penny each will be issued to all Shareholders on 19 April 2024 by way of a bonus issue at a ratio of 4.26159039 new B shares for each Ordinary Share held at the Record Date of 6:00 p.m. on 18 April 2024. "
So presumably if I were to sell all my VSL shares tomorrow before 6:00pm, I would not be issued with any B shares. Is that correct?
This return is not a dividend so the usual ex-divi date being a day before the record date does not apply.
I stand corrected. Next conundrum will be how long it takes brokers to work it out after 10th. May.
Krusty - well nailed
Krusty - delighted to be wrong! Very. Poorly worded to say the least
Adv11. Your interpretation and calculations are exactly the same as mine. We'll soon see
I think the 1p value of the B shares is just the unimportant "nominal value" that all shares have.
So, keeping it simple, I am looking at NAV per share of 83.18p.
Returning 5.12% of the Company's Net Asset Value as at 31 January 2024.
EQUALS 4.258816p per share to be returned.
So my 12000 shares will return £511.05
But what do I know ? Scrap of paper calculations laid on my desk, going on experiences with Starwood (SWEF).
So this is where it wouldn't stack up. We know they're going to redeem the B shares for 1p each, and that this represents 5% of the value, so that implies we're only going to get c. 20p back.
Let's wait & see how many B shares are issued on Friday. I don't read pro-rata as meaning 1 for 1 (pro-rata to our holdings surely?) but they could have been clearer in explaining how it works.
Pro rata implies one for one? So a lot less than I was thinking but worth watching if the SP falls pro rata on the ex date or if the discount will come in a bit
Yes, as you say it's complicated isn't it? If c. 5% of the NAV = £11.9m that implies a value of c. £240m vs the current mcap of close to £150m , I think that would explain why there were some pretty big buy trades yesterday despite the uncertainty & timescales. It should be easier to work out the expected value once we see how many B shares we receive for each ordinary share we hold.
Thanks Krusty, but it wasn't what I meant! My fault, I put it badly.
What I mean is, they are returning 5.12% of the NAV (as at 31.01.24). But what have they had to let mature/equity sell to raise that 5.12%....If they had to liquidate 5.12% to pay us 5.12% (i.e. 100% conversion) then that would be a good sign. But if they had to liquidate say 8% to be able to pay us 5.12% that would be bad.
It's a complicated equation because there is significant debt repayment as well. We would need to know if there are any losses on the balance sheet loans and whether the equity is being sold at close to the level on the books.
We may not be given that information, so the next sign will be what happens to the NAV post the first redemption. Does the NAV drop by 5.12%, or more, or less?!
Guitarsolo
I'm assuming we'll receive c. 4 'B' shares for every ordinary share we hold, otherwise this equation doesn't work?
"The capital to be returned represents approximately 5.12 per cent. of the Company's Net Asset Value as at 31 January 2024."
Well it is nice to know that the first capital return is not far away with the first $15m.
The question is, what % of the loans have matured and equity been sold to raise that $15m (money was also directed to repay debt)?
My average is a touch over 83, don’t think I’ll see a full return on investment. :=((
Can't say the first B share payment is overwhelming!
The share price change agrees with me!
You have to start somewhere and we also have to take account the reduction in the RCF.
All in all a start on the long road to a total return of 80p....plus!
I live in hope!
I see two things happening on first return - fall but not equivalent in SP and a reduction in the discount to NAV
what's your ******* problem? this is a share discussion forum where people can express an opinion, but as usual some troll comes along & takes the ****. what are you adding to the debate ********?
Yes of course, they will be able to sell the least desirable assets first, I can’t believe I didn’t think of that myself. Good luck with the rest of your “forecasting” (making up crap).