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Robina - financial metrics aren't a complete train wreck but they aren't a screaming buy at this price. Current PE ratio is around x14, dividend yield of around 5.7% with a dividend cover of 1.22, debt slightly up, with flat dividend and EPS for this year with FCF doing down slightly.
VOD have a stable income steam, but are facing cost pressures in the same way every company are, and a lot of companies are now starting to report gross revenues increasing which are in line or above targets, but are missing profit targets due to due increased costs, and VOD warned of the same thing in their results.
Fleccy and others have all posted about the potential of IoT etc in the long term, and they may very well be right, but if you're looking for long term potential have a hunt around and do some research as there are lots of other big companies who supply the hardware needed to support that change who will arguably benefit more and have lower PE ratios and better balance sheets, although dividend yields are lower and they have different risks. That's why it's good to be diversified.
The director buy was certainly a great vote of confidence in the long term by someone in the know, although look at the price she paid. If you've got a director buying, then it also means that at that point there was no other information that wasn't in the public domain - ie no imminent M&A activity, other than a possible merger with Three which we already know about and so is probably baked into the current SP.
In the short term the SP hit the top of the short term trading range at 132 and is struggling to get beyond that, and the bottom of that range is around 116. The top of the longer term trading range is around 142, so maybe this morning is just a slight retrace, it will bounce off 130 and go looking for 142 before ex div day next week. As I said a few days ago though, the risk of a retrace increases when you get to key levels like the 132 mark.
Accept that whatever you do you will never get it right all the time. The odds are stacked against you in picking the bottom to buy and the top to sell as you can only ever do that with hindsight.
If you are looking to buy or sell, then you need to look at probabilities and risk/return and use them to give you a slight edge. If you want to take advantage of that statistical edge, then you need to be active and consistent to allow that edge to play out. Avoid binary decisions like buy all, sell all, invest too much in one share, because that significantly increases risk. If you do sell, then you also need to be prepared to walk away if the SP shoots up afterwards. To do that though you need to maintain a watchlist of a variety of different shares/instruments in different sectors that have a low or negative correlation so you can find other opportunities to put the money to work elsewhere rather than jumping back in at a higher price or sitting in cash forever.
Oh no we're down again. Seriously though, despite it appearing manipulated to hell, the financial metrics appear quite positive for vodafone e.g. EPS and profit per share up. Cash in hand at the bank is up. Can't get a handle on the debt situation though, that is I don't understand it. The normal conundrum at the mo is whether to sell before ex-Div.
Thanks fleccy. I just thought walked up was the wrong expression to use for manipulating prices? Do you think the price has been manipulated (or walked up) ? Perhaps they should walk it up to £2? as per your previous post? Sorry but some on here just talk in meaningless terms sometimes. Not you of course? so keep it coming please.
"Compound. What did you mean when you said that the price was being walked up?"
Probably using Algo's to make repeated small buys on exchange, when the volumes drop, and brokers directing volume sells off exchange to dark pools, rather than selling on exchange. The power players can do almost anything with a stocks price. I thought the recent Meme short squeezes were funny though. Hedge funds had built up big short positions, on companies like Gamestop and AMC, such was the level of shorting that shares were shorted more than once. Retail investors piled in with small buys, pushing the price up and there wasn't enough trading stock to cover the shorts, so the squeeze happened.
Compound. What did you mean when you said that the price was being walked up? An example of a walked up price would be when you walk up to a hotel reception, & pay the full price for a room, instead of pre booking at a discount.
Yeah I stand corrected - when I said last time I meant the rise in mid Feb which hit 132 then broke out to an intraday 141/142 which it couldn't hold. Maybe it will get there (141/142) again - I'm certainly surprised VOD is doing much better than I expected this year to date and revenues will be up on next comparisons. I expect selling pressure around 130s but could break out higher again. No crystal balls here either.
its all about the dividend....investors of all sizes piling in...I'm out at 131.5.....4 days sheesh....thats been a great ride but then Voda like BP are fantastic trading shares especially around ex div time...good luck
At the risk of sounding very unpopular, there are are a lot of risks at this price considering the recent price action. I said the other day that the price action was odd as it's very unusual to see such a big rise on average volume. Looking at my IG charts, it shows some big selling at around 3pm yesterday. That does support one of my guesses that the price was being walked up pre div in preparation for a short attack, or for someone who wanted to dump shares. Tbh I don't fully trust the volume indicator on IG so you might want to cross check that information.
The last time it touched 132p was back in Mid April and then it retraced to 115p.
I know it goes ex div on Weds and selling before then would mean you miss the dividend, but we are at the top of a short term trading range over the last few weeks, and aren't that far away from the top of a long term trading range of 141/142.
Ex div drops can be very overdone on VOD, especially when the SP is towards or at the top of trading range.
I'm sorry I don't have a crystal ball to tell you exactly where and when the SP is going, these are just a few points to consider, especially if you need to sell some in the short term.
Last time it touched 132p it went on quite quickly to 141p ... and back then we didn't have UAE investing a huge chunk. With inflation eroding cash it's good to have a few high yielders in the portfolio.