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'Do you mean the CWW network?'
I guess it must be in that consolidation. I dont see regulation as a block to a deal, its a moat/ barrier to new entrants, and I guess why Vod is pushing for fewer market participants and the Italy deal in particular.
"I wonder if bt's universal service obligation might apply to Vod UK and the old MCL network (not sure where that is now.."
Do you mean the CWW network? As far as the previous Mercury/C&W/CWW UK Network, my guess would be that it could raise issues around national security, but you could say that about any of the businesses making up Vodafone Group within their respective markets; It would probably depend on who was bidding to take them over. It will raise a lot of competition and national security scrutiny, everywhere they operate, but it wouldn't necessarily block a deal, imo.
""Hello fleccy. Have you topped up lately,or are you waiting for a lower price? Who do you think might make a takeover bid for vod? I thought it was considered very unlikely?"
I topped up £10,000 on Vodafone when the price was around 109.3p, a while back. At the time i was planning a further £10,000, but I didn't want to reduce my savings below a certain limit, so I regretably held off on buying the full £20,000 at around 109p. If Vodafone stays low, I want to buy another £10,000 before April, but I'm not quite there yet, and it will depend on what happens over the bext couple of weeks.
As far as a Vodafone takeover, whoever goes after them would need very deep pockets, and a plan on recovering their cash over time. As some of the articles have mentioned, a consortium of Hedge/Investment/Venture funds, or a big US Telecom player backed by the investment banks, may be possibilities.
'Vodafone doesn't tick that box in any of its markets.'
Get your point. Vod is more like EE (121,TMob,Orange). I wonder if bt's universal service obligation might apply to Vod UK and the old MCL network (not sure where that is now..)
"Re takeover, I suspect anything Europe service based would get regulatory scrutiny for compliance/ non compliance with EU Articles/ BEREC etc."
I would depend on who was doing the taking over, for example Deutsche Telecom wouldn't stand a chance due to the size of Vodafone's German business; A venture capital takeover wouldn be an issue under competition law, or national security concerns as long as they aren't tied to China, or Russia. The problem with BT is its monopolistic position in the UK, Vodafone doesn't tick that box in any of its markets.
Hello fleccy. Have you topped up lately,or are you waiting for a lower price? Who do you think might make a takeover bid for vod? I thought it was considered very unlikely?
Fleccy, I think you are probably right about offbook/ onbook. Also mbc included in that mix!
Re takeover, I suspect anything Europe service based would get regulatory scrutiny for compliance/ non compliance with EU Articles/ BEREC etc. Whilst Africa is less regulated or unregulated. In either event, all subscribe to, or are renegotiating, WTO and GATT rules where each sovereign state has its own 'economic mix' and agenda.
Will be an interesting year. For example, will the EU allocate any of the €750Bn recovery fund in 2022 to an entity that is being sold? An acquiring company would be picking up a regulatory obligation! VOD management strategy is to get an allocation of the Fund this year to deliver on the 'social contract'/ welfare benefits/ rural access etc
Not so long ago, the rhetroic suggested Telecoms are untouchable, with any investment in infrastructure only good for standing still. The likes of Vodafone and BT have seen their share prices plummet amongst a slew of articles talking them down, with various commentators focusing on any negative they could conjour out of any event. Covid somehow dropped the price of Telecom stocks, even though they were amongst the most resilient earners during the pandemic. Vodafone has underperformed against IAG and Ryanair, over the past year, even though Airline finances have been decimated by the pandemic.
I always took the view that Telecom stocks were either misunderstood, or deliberately trashed to force them into the gutter, so they could be picked up later when the time is right. Anyone who believes that the markets are fair, or that big company stock prices can't be manipulated, are miguided in my opinion; Off Book trades usually set their prices by the On Book Exchange price, so I don't see any reason why Algo's can't set the Exchange price, while really big trades are completed off book, or through derivatives, which allows big players to pick up large quantities of stock without affecting the On Book price, look at BT and Drahi for example.
Now all of a sudden, Telecom stocks are seeing a change of narrative, and being eyed as takeover targets; As I said previously, never believed the market commentary directed at Telecom stocks, by vested interest media, so a takeover attempt for Vodafone wouldn't surprise me. Any takeover attempt of Vodafone, wouldn't see the same regulatory scrutiny as a company like BT, so I'd see a takeover attempt of VOD as a more likely event.