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Still no sign of Margherita buying on the "dip"!
Even though the us indices have run a bit hot, shorting them is I believe a mistake as they can always get hotter.
Don't get price confused with value mole.
The US markets account for c70% of the Market Cap of all of the worlds stock markets. Some US companies are bigger than the whole of the UK market with a fraction of the revenue and profits. A few combined are bigger than all of the European Indices..
US GDP is 18% of the developed World GDP so there is a massive disconnect.
AS with VOD you need to understand what you're investing in and not get carried away with the headlines.
VOD will recover but I'm still not buying yet, nor the FTSE. And definitely nothing that faces West.
I'm heavily shorting Market at these levels as the soft landing won't be as soft as is priced in. If I'm right will VOD buck the trend - of course not..!
I remember reading posts about the overhot US indices and the oversold ftse 10 years ago. 10 years on, FTSE up 10%, Nasdaq up 447%.
Sadly, the stregth is in America, and the FTSE is just dinosaurs.
Told you us would recover after FTSE closes. It's fine with me because I trade US and invest profits in ftse for the income.
Fste is way oversold, including vod, meaning dividends are skyhigh as you know. Mind you US indices are getting a bit hot which is why I am not in there long term now.
"well they did make a loss in H1 and paid the Interim Dividend out of cash resources and don't expect any growth until new FY ....so..no wonder investors have gone away , for now"
Poker the H1 figures always show a deduction due to Working Capital, this is corrected in the H2 figures where it's added back in. They probably use the working capital to settle Bond debt as it matures. Check out the chart in the link below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=498591&format=interactive
Losecontrol
I hope you are not "losing control" lol
I would re-phrase and pose the question differently - do you see a better value now compared to when you first invested in vod? Averaging down terminology is rather misleading, because if you don't believe in the underlying security, then you should not add more to your holding whether in vod or something else.
From a logical point of view, the money that's burning in your pocket right now has almost infinite number of homes to choose from. The dilemma is which one offers your money the best seat in the house? Your goal is to optimise your objective function, which is CAGR of your invested fund. It may feel and look as if you are doing better by "averaging" down, but it's not the true reflection of the real world.
I can only speak for myself. I see a massive value at these levels and to me Vod is one of the best investment opportunities out there today in these crazy markets. As an example, just look at ARM, it is now trading ca 40x its annual revenue!!! Pundits on CNBC may argue otherwise, but they are being paid by the sell side to push their agenda and story lines.
Lastly, don't listen to anybody, inclusive of this user :)
At 4.30 the US indices will miraculously recover as usual.
Its been the same pattern for weeks now. The FTSE starts strong, gets dragged down by US, which then recovers after FTSE closes.
" I’m already too heavy proportionally on Vod in my portfolio "
then wouldn't it be better to invest for gains elsewhere to create more balance and less risk ???
Unfortunately, the Yanks have put paid to today's mini recovery as per usual and still no buys from Margherita. Disgraceful!
"This is a really ridiculous situation to see the SP hoovering around 60p - 70p for a good while. "
well they did make a loss in H1 and paid the Interim Dividend out of cash resources and don't expect any growth until new FY ....so..no wonder investors have gone away , for now
cant see much change until new Q1 results later in the summer
Any thoughts on averaging down, started buying in a few years ago, significantly higher average price then currently and buying more (I’m already too heavy proportionally on Vod in my portfolio) won’t make me a massive difference to average price but at least does lower it 10-15p.
Silly question really as most in here think either it’s a buy or a sell and whilst I’ve read through various messages recently I wondered if there was any fresh thinking?
Thank you in advance!
This should and will recover for sure. Such a giant of a company struggling is really overdone.
This is a really ridiculous situation to see the SP hoovering around 60p - 70p for a good while.
So I expect recovery is on the way when the SP reaches such low capitulation levels
I is in a holding patern. I noticed it were up goode early-ish. Don't feal like it will finish red tho. But you never nows...
Swisscom revenue static and capex in Fastweb up just 1% , although looking at AI solutions investment with NVIDIA tie up
Fastweb own network only reaches 8m homes, so far,
I think there is a lot to do before VOD decides Fastweb and Swisscom are the right partner fit
I trippled my holding this morning Carrington around 64p.
Swisscom profits today" boosted by growth in its Fastweb business in Italy." - that imo puts pressure on Iliad - if Swisscom were to go ahead with the VOD purchase that would fuel their Fastweb business which is already performing well in Italy - not good for Iliad, not good at all - I can smell a higher bid coming here from Iliad - I have increased my holding accordingly this morning
gla dyor etc
UPDATE 2 – Swisscom profit rises on Fastweb growth, declines comment on Vodafone talks
08:31
(Adds comment and background on potential deal with Vodafone in paragraphs 3-5)
By Mateusz Dobrzyniewski and Anastasiia Kozlova
Feb 8 (Reuters) – Swisscom met expectations with a 4.9% rise in full-year core profit on Thursday boosted by growth in its Fastweb business in Italy.
Fastweb is seeing accelerating growth in its customer base, with revenue from both business and wholesale customers increasing despite lagging broadband demand in a tough market environment.
Telecoms groups in Italy are exploring opportunities to consolidate a market grappling with shrinking revenue and margins.
Britain's Vodafone on Monday said it was in "active discussions" about a deal in Italy, after rejecting an offer from rival Iliad last month in favour of pursuing other options.
Sources have said one of those options is a deal with Swisscom's Fastweb.
A Swisscom spokesperson declined to comment on the matter in an email to Reuters, saying the company would not publish any additional statements on Thursday.
The group posted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 4.62 billion Swiss francs ($5.29 billion) in 2023 while analysts had expected 4.61 billion, a company-compiled consensus showed.
The former state telecoms monopoly said business in Italy continued to develop positively, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in Fastweb's revenue to 2.63 billion euros ($2.84 billion).
For 2024, Swisscom expects revenue of around 11.00 billion Swiss francs, compared with 11.07 billion last year. It forecast annual EBITDA in a range of 4.5 billion to 4.6 billion francs.
The company said it would propose a dividend of 22 francs per share for 2023, unchanged from a year earlier. ($1 = 0.8731 Swiss francs) ($1 = 0.9275 euros)
I'm guessing we'll be treated to further SP erosion today. Margherita needs to put her hand in her purse and buy a load of shares. Quite frankly it would be outrageous if she doesn't, given the SP collapse since she took over as CEO. I'll keep an eye out for the RNS but I won't be holding my breath!
Correction, the combined market cap is 40bn, where vod's holding is worth ca20bn
Currently trading at 20bn, where vod's holding is more than 50%.
Says a lot about the dysfunctional markets and miss pricing. A reversal to the standard norm and mean is inevitable.
Polo Tang (UBS): Hi, thanks for taking the question. I have one question about Etisalat. Can
you clarify when they will take their seat on the Vodafone board? Are there any further steps
that need to be taken before this happens? Separately, have they given you any feedback on
where they would like to see the dividend and shareholder returns? Thanks.
Margherita Della Valle: On the timelines, we are still going through the process and as
Vodafone we are of course supporting the process with whatever information sharing is
required by the various authorities. However, it still needs to be completed and therefore we
will update you. We look forward to welcoming Hatem to the board and at that point having a
fuller conversation around the topics you mentioned. I think it would be really helpful to be
able to have these conversations once they join the board
Luka Mucic: Yes, I can only reiterate what we already covered at H1 earnings. First of all of
course we are very focused on generating capital. That is the whole focus on operational
excellence and certainly looking into all of the components of our end-to-end cash conversion
chain. I think over time I am sure we will have further opportunities with the customer,
simplicity, growth focus to also improve there. Then more importantly in the short term, in
terms of the capital allocation, we have covered briefly already on one of the previous
questions, the question around capital intensity, so nothing that would suggest any need for
any changes in that respect. In terms of the balance sheet I am pleased that I was handed a
very solid and strong one, actually with very long-term debt at reasonable interest rates. Also
in that respect there is no significant shift that anybody would need to expect. Then in terms
of the actual shareholder returns, yes, I am convinced that we have to look at a good mix of
different means. On the dividend front it is important to me to make sure that an ongoing
dividend is covered by the underlying free cash flow of the firm. Spain is going to change that
a bit but we will use all of the visibility that we have by then to then come up with the right
call. Nothing is decided and yes also share buybacks could then be part of the mix. In
particular, if we have sizeable one-off cash inflows like the one that we are expecting from
Spain at the closing of that transaction.
Akhil Dattani: Can I just clarify one thing Margherita on your first answer? Does that mean
that Italy in terms of whether it happens or not and the construct of any potential deal does
not necessarily impact? I guess it is quite a big asset for you, so I am trying to understand
how you can give clarity in May if potentially that deal has not yet materialised by that point.
Margherita Della Valle: Our intention remains to give clarity in May. As you can imagine we
will have the €4 billion proceeds from Spain coming in and therefore we do not think we
should delay any further, so we will update you in Ma
Hi Dan, this has been a tricky little bugger this one, just as you think it's stopped dropping it goes down a bit more, so i can understand how some are getting a bit frustrated here, but it has to stop somewhere, so how about we throw a bit of poo back at them on the way back up, that will be something to look forward to, and the sooner the better
best of luck mate
The price is going to keep decreasing because the big boys are avoiding VOD - now is the time for value investors and retail investors if you can find the bottom. To be honest, the enterprise value is already super low so the share price will only soar once the big boys join the game.
A share buyback for £1.8bn (10% of share capital max as authorised at 2023 AGM) seems sensible. It would reduce total dividends paid (c.£200m/year) while increasing EPS (due to reduced share capital), and thereby increase dividend cover to 1.7 (new EPS/dividend per share). Even Luka (CFO) alluded quite strongly to a buyback during Q&A - he just needs a bit of time to get comfortable around a sustainable dividend + capex. Remember he did 2 share buybacks in SAP and both times share price went up > 50%, so he knows what he's doing if a buyback happens. He may have to cut dividend per share because the cost of equity is too high (c.12% dividend yield) vs. cost of debt of 2.5%, but this would further increase dividend cover above 2. I'm willing to take a haircut on the dividend, and increase it 5-10% each year. After all, c.40% of CEO and CFO's remuneration is in shares, so they have an incentive to get this share price back up(e.g. MDV's average SP on previous share awards was 120p).
Once that is all done, VOD is sorted from a equity and debt front, and they can then turn their focus to pushing up the revenue line, whilst turning their shared operation cost centre into a profit centre (like charging Zegona £110m for Vodafone Spain, and I suspect the same for Vodafone Italy if a deal is struck).
Futher potential upside: Vodafone-Three merger, IoT business, shared operation cost centre, ORAN, Vodacom, Vodafone Italy, possible takeover (if Illiad is willing to pay €11bn for Vodafone Italy, I'm pretty sure they could partner with a PE fund to buy VOD at £18bn and sell its parts)
I look forward to the May FY results. We're in for a ride, but the destination is going to be very sweet because you could sell parts of VOD now, or VOD gets taken over (for very cheap), and we'll still win at the current price.