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VOD - Business Description and Key Statistics
https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/VOVOD/tearsheet
Not that I want to be a party pooper but there's not much fun to be had by guessing how bad posters think the SP will be in a week's time. These guessing games are more enjoyable when the SP is in the ascendency. Let's hope by next Friday, everyone's wrong and the SP is back the 80s!
71p...
Vod closing Sp 26th Jan
KiwiTwo 70p
FredRubble 69.69p
Roofer 68.5p
Added to list Entries by 12pm Mon Atb
69.69 for me please. Many thanks
Can I have 70p for next week please
The MUPPET that is Jax yet again posts an opinion that the SP here will fall by 2% but it rises by 2.62% & he also submits on here a vile misogonistic post aimed at the female MD.
Just have a read of this, it was posted at 16.35 on 18 January & it shows this particular individual to be the morally inept, prejudiced, abhorrent person that he really is.
Vod closing Sp 19th Jan 67.64p
Bobrad 68p Winner
Doyen Dan 70p
KiwiTwo 69.56p
FredRubble 69.69p
Jesteh 72p
Tars 73.14p
Exil 71p
Newsid 70.2p
Roofer 68.25p
Enjoy your weekend..atb
"Since the end of 2022, Vodafone has been supplying almost 100% of motorways via LTE with at least 100 Mbps. More than 3,600 cell phone stations along the highways already provide drivers with 5G technology. The carrier also said it operates more than 6,000 mobile phone sites that serve to cover motorway routes and tunnels.
Vodafone Germany’s 5G network reached 91% of the country’s population as of the end of 2023. The operator’s 5G Standalone network (SA) currently serves nearly 45% of the German population. Vodafone previously said that 5G SA technology will reach nationwide coverage by 2025"
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20240119/5g/vodafone-inks-deal-boost-mobile-coverage-german-highways
Whatever any of us may think, the market commentators keep bashing Telecoms companies over their debt, so its clear Vodafone need to reduce their debt.
Going off Vodafone's Bond list:
I think the Hybrid Bond for €2 Billion with a next call date of 3rd Oct 2023 has now gone and I also suspect they've already paid off the $3 Billion worth of US Bonds maturing on the 16th Jan 2024. There's also a €750,000,000 Bond maturing on the 30th Jan 2024 and I'm assuming all three of those will disappear after the 5th Feb Q3 results. The total debt maturing for the 2024 calendar year, including the two US Bonds that matured on the 16th Jan, comes to €5.066 Billion. 2025 has €4.326 Billion worth of Bonds maturing.
Is Jax an idiot? Yep !
The strategy involves investing €150m from cost savings into customer service and continuing to target the full €1 billion of cost saving which will free up cash to further push for revenue within Business as the margin there is higher. Business hindered by economic conditions until interest rates start to come down
Cutting debt in itself is not the strategy and they have not made any decision on the allocation of capital from Spain and wont do until the sale process finishes, so it may not be used to reduce debt
"current strategy which is all driven by dealing with the debt overhang."
No it isnt.
The strategy involves looking at markets where the ROCE is poor and action needs to be taken either to leave the market (Spain) or leave/consolidate within the market (Italy)
Mole_man99
Share price driven by Option players here, I suspect and today was Option Expire Day, so the rise "may" be due to some closing Options, forcing buys on the side of the table...see next week if that is so...or not
Any move from Put to Call now and the share price would rise from the lows the Option traders take it to.
If you think a good period is coming,you take the price down first in order to benefit the most from it , and no readon to for the FCF guidance to be much different than expected and H2 will see receivables and other time delay revenue inputs which dont appear in H1
It's such a relief to see the SP up today and a majority of buys over sells. Isn't it funny how getting back to the 70s would be seen as a great result. Perspectives change depending on the vantage point! I'm sure this prolonged visit into the 60s must be due a correction upwards. Vod has to be worth more so hopefully it's in recovery mode from here. 🤞
Let's hope he had the courage of his convictions and shorted it for a pretty penny.
Somehow doubt it.
Given the price the market is prepared to pay today, it suggests there is a dim view of FCF prospects, whatever the CEO says.
That is the retail investors chance though, to spot an opportunity the spreadsheet driven big money can not. I don't have that much confidence in VOD though, given track record and current strategy which is all driven by dealing with the debt overhang.
Accolade this week goes to , and 1st time to the podium Bobrad, well done
Vod closing Sp 19th Jan 67.64p , were treated to 2.6% increase
Speech Speech and thoughts Bobrad
Full list will follow Enjoy your weekend..atb
Hey Jax
“Yep and tomorrow we’ll be 2% plus down”
Do you feel an idiot today - you are very quiet again on an up day !!
The FCF is H2 weighted so will perform better than in H1 and they have already laid out the reasons for that , and hence stick to their Full Year guidance on it
Previous posts provided an interesting discussion regarding DCF analysis chaps, my take on this for what it's worth.
Firstly valueinvesting (269p) and Simply Wall St (202p) are just silly as they are both based on 37p eps which is the preadjusted figure excluding extraordinary items so their analysis is worth nothing.
If we believe the CFO then €3.3 billion in free cash flow for FY24, given approx 27 billion shares equates to €0.12 per share, or £0.10.
Do your own DCF, or plug this into moneychimp, select 0% growth for next 5 years and 0% thereafter . This gives a DCF calculated fair value of 90p at an 11% discount rate, or 133p at a 7.5 % discount rate.
(What discount rate to use is a moot point. Wish I could get 11% reliably, but for comparison, Goldman Sachs predict a FTSE total return in 2024 of about 7.3%.)
So the TLDR is that purely on a simple DCF analysis VOD is presently well undervalued.
But maybe I'm just being optimistic - DYOR and good luck!
Grumpy
Jax said “Yep and tomorrow we’ll be 2% plus down”
Well there was a 2% change but it was positive
Mole_man99
The CEO stated
" we have been very clear when we issued our guidance for FY24 that the number we are achieving this year is going to be a base to grow from and we are intending to grow in FY25."
4.8m / 1.8m buy trades just got through, is this a good sign
The CFO at H1 analyst presentation :
For our next year, we are actually already around about 70% hedged from an energy perspective and we will see this ratio going up fairly soon to around about 80% already.
So, I would expect energy to become a tailwind in FY25 even though likely not yet fully returned to the levels of FY23.
In FY26 I then fully expect us to be back to levels let’s say perhaps slightly above what we saw in FY22.
Then of course the underlying growth that we are seeing in the business should translate into stronger EBITDA growth than what you have seen in H1.