Vodafone Share Chat (VOD)

at the index, the sector chart, the other constituents, other variables ..im really failing to see the excitement in Vodafone. Anyway it doesn't matter. Just opinion. If it ramps up, well done to you all. Il simply have missed the boat

you could argue, that was a past event not now relevant. But it is. Price is at that sentiment today

It's not. It's an analysis, as valid as 200p analysis

Forgive the amateur query. But I need help to understand this. Vodafone yield has grown year on year for a few years, yet the SP capital return is minus 60% since 2014. Slaughtering div collectors of that period. So the dividend yield has not aided share price given its growing yet SP tanked near 60%. To me the increase in div stinks of desperation to stop the SP rot, and is failing to do so. So given the share price the last few years and the increased dividend, what fundamentals now make 180p a support price for the future, and halting 150p? Appreciate your help as a newbie in understanding this. Thank you.

Talk of 140p is without merit....VOD dropped to something like 125p in 2008 and then recovered to c.153p not so long after ..and we are nowhere near any kind of scenario like that...unless we have some major crisis again.... 180p right now is actually foreward predicting a downturn in revenues which has yet to happen...fear and sentiment and a slip in growth estimates in Europe are suggesting it might..but the actual data isnt there yet... To get to 140p you need a major change in economic growth to turn very pessimistic...and there is no sign of that at all....and it would be a shambles if Trump with no previous public office experience were to cause that. What will knock VOD is if...there are tariffs on german cars...given the perceived knock to the german exports and thus economy..... but moving to that kind of talk should such create the need for a summit of talks to resolve the issues.. Uncertainty is hitting VOD at the moment which you merely have to live with and decide how far that will go before it resolves itself Some here suggest August

true. I'm only trading a few weeks. might be the inexperience. Maybe 180 will hold and the shorting funds will actually care about the div and forget SP capital rtn for a change. Well, back to the drawing board for me. Il watch with great interest, how 180 plus the div cover stops the 150 attack. Thanks for the info.

"You seem to be forgetting the other side which is just as powerful...short funds." - LastCall, while they do send this up and down your lack of experience is showing. There is something more powerful than these funds that will prevent 150 area and that is a dividend that is covered for by free cash flow (FCF) and forests. As for technicals 180p is pretty much support level.

"whatever slammed Vodafone in 2014, " LastCall nothing slammed Vodafone. Can you not remember the Polar vortex and California droughts 2014? How about Ebola outbreak? The year Facebook buys WhatsApp? Nigeria schoolgirls kidnapped? How about the Verizon Sale?

Compass good post and have a good w/e.

ATB

Tom :-)

whatever slammed Vodafone in 2014, it's now trading at the low of that sentiment too. And what i have traded similar in the past, rarely didn't drop another 20% +. Some recovered after that. Some didn't. But majority went down heavily first, in this current scenario

It's not about luck. It's about targets. You seem to be forgetting the other side which is just as powerful...short funds. If they are targeting a short and buy to 140 zone, its probably a good thing your only interest is long term div. No price is a shock in markets or any instrument.. .100p or 300p, will seem reasoned and right when gets to either. Just a case of not closing eyes and hoping. It's pretty dire in terms of my analysis below 180. To you or others, its all roses. See how it goes.

Good luck to all of you that think you will soon be buying VOD at 1.40 to 1.60 my opinion for what its worth.....it just won't happen, been here well over ten years and seen the range time after time, VOD may get to 1.80 or just below but take a look at the price come Oct/Nov time you will have wished you bought at this price......I won't wrong but if by some miracle I am I will be still here and taking the divi like I have for donkeys years .....GLA

and 140 is feasible. Back at 2008 prices now. Really needed to rally after last week. I think it was around 140 in 2002 or some year around there. Fair target for short funds wouldn't you say? Massive first two days next week. Needs serious funds buying or its 140 easily

Pokerchips --- well you do seem a little down on your decision to hold VOD shares

Not at all Johandesilva, I am happy with my 184p at the moment and no "vent"...you appear to be using the wrong word ..I am just following sentiment at the moment ..but thanks anyway ...

There do appear to be one or two snowflakes about this board though so you may wish to offer your hugs to them

Have a good weekend

Just loaded another 15K shares.

At these prices, it would be silly not to.

I can wait for the shares to recover to its 200 days moving average of 217p and get remunerated with juicy dividends while I wait. DYOR

"PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT WITH TUNISIE TELECOM"
Watch that share rocket. Any second now,well maybe a few seconds, ok maybe a minute or hour perhaps a day or two or three or .......

Bill's analysis was comprehensive and thorough. A complete contrast to the majority of the posts on this board. However, can't get my head round their recent upgrade so unable to access that source of enlightenment. Thank you
Johandesilva for lifting this board above the mire

"This time round I've bought in at 1.93, 1.92, 1.84, 1.84 for a weighted average price of 1.88."
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Lord Adam, hats of to you with an average slightly lower than mine at 194.

Not a better investment right now for the same potential percentage gains and you will be delighted in a couple of years time but in the meantime will you be trading a tranch?

I do not see this low period lasting too long, with yesterday's drop happened when the EU cut its 2018 eurozone growth forecast[1], this will blow over in a few weeks and if aligned to my source of charts August could be very good time to take some profit.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/eu-economic-growth-forecast-reduced/a-44649654

"I dont look for any support..none .......what do I need that for ?"
Pokerchips --- well you do seem a little down on your decision to hold VOD so to me it looked like you needed some help. Charting analysis has the bottom of 180p and will look to move up in August. So if your looking for charting help to help then I can produce one from a good source. If you're looking for detailed account analysis I have copies of Bill on iii forum with some insight from a retired excellent analyst. His insights will tell you FCF sufficiently covers obligations and crucially the dividend preventing lows that cover the dividend (unless the divi is cut and there is no evidence of that due to FCF and forecasts).

If you're simply here to vent at a poor decision then I would give you hug if I could.

"Can I ask what support you hope to get by posting here?"

I dont look for any support..none .......what do I need that for ?

I agree ... VOD is pretty much a range trading share with a good consistent dividend payment to keep you interested while your're waiting.

I'm essentially an income driven investor ... but when I first set our portfolio up I made some mistakes, as we all do ... I got into VOD but at the wrong time, back in 2015 at about the 2.28 level ... bad timing really but the yield at that stage seemed attractive and I thought they might have a bit to run on the SP -- but it was the yield that I was buying for really.

Sold half in 2016 for 2.25 as I could use the money better some where else, and the second half in 2017 for 2.33 for a small gain.

Overall, including the dividends I made 4.91% pa on them ... so not a disaster for a beginner.

This time round I've bought in at 1.93, 1.92, 1.84, 1.84 for a weighted average price of 1.88.

At that level I'll be happy to collect the dividend for a while ... but when we get back to the 225-230 level I'll be looking to sell again as my capital gains at that stage will be equal to 3-years income and that's my criteria for considering an exit -- unless there's a firm reason to expect further gains or growth in income.

Mike

Pokerchips, there is much to be positive about in Europe with growth in areas like Greece. Can I ask what support you hope to get by posting here? Do you need account analysis, charting help or just unsure of your investment or short?

"This is why people like to buy Vodafone as a defensive stock."

If Europe heads for recession ( which it is not at yet of course,but momentum has slipped ) then VOD will slip back to the likes of 150p

VOD is no defense in a recession ....it terms of keeping for capital value....it is just big enough to survive ...and maybe even issue a script dividend if need be

In fact buying Liberty assets has made VOD less defensive because that buy is dependent on revenues and growth and the huge issue of bonds will be dilutive if VOD doesnt get the revenue to buy the bonds back

Liberty is a bet on prosperity in Europe which would pay off well for VOD over time

Any recession in Europe and VOD will get kicked ...IMO

What will happen when the bear appears.
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Pretty much the same. This is why people like to buy Vodafone as a defensive stock. I am not sure if this is the stock for you Djones21476. The technical trend lines have 180p as bottom and if you look into the free cash flow (FCF) and dividend there is amazing support here. Forecasts in the second year could see 260p and the technical charts support this.

Vod seems to have a trading range. If you buy this share over 2.20 you are unlilely to see much in way of capital gains. if you see the range and are patient and buy only under 2.00 with divs it can be a nice investment. Timing and knowledge= wealth