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Thanks fleccy. I thought the whole point of your support of vod was it's div'i ? So I am puzzled by your comment which suggest's vod should reduce it's deb't by reducing it's divi? I am trying very hard to believe in your positive stance here? But I am having a struggle with that at the moment? We all know vod's deb't is a problem? If vod reduces it's divi, then all you have said in the past goes straight out of the window surely? I think it is fair to say though that anybody who posts anything on here against the sheep like, go with flow,sack Nick Read attitude is not going to get many recommends?
All original content Dan. The numbers and information are all out there in the public domain, you just need to find it. If you tune into Bloomberg or CNBC you can listen to what the policy makers are actually saying, which is usually the biggest driver in the markets, although the reaction can often be delayed.
Financial ‘experts’ invariably have a hidden agenda and financial journalists are far more clueless than you could possibly imagine, so I wouldn’t dream of cutting and pasting any of their work.
Just trying to help people put things into context. Many moons ago I frequented boards like this and got sucked into the euphoria on various boards instead of learning and ended up losing money. I then learned how to do it properly and spending time writing detailed posts is just my way of paying forward, plus it can help me clarify my own thoughts.
“That's your problem Gary, you know absolutely nothing about VOD”
Fleccy - Some posts on here are tinged with irony, tired irony from long suffering VOD holders.
The thing is mate one has to possess a certain amount of intelligence to understand irony … you obviously don’t get it but never mind.
Hello compound. Great to have your input? But do you actually come up with all this yourself , or just uplift it all ? Sorry mate,but if we all just uplift stuff we will get nowhere, just one uplift against the other? How long did it take to write that? Reading it was a marathon?
Lots of reasons this is tanking - I’ve been posting them.
Macro economic situation is dire. Inflation running hot and yanks are hiking up rates to try and control it. The chairman of the Federal Reserve yesterday said that basically they are going to keep rising rates until they get inflation under control, even if that means putting the US into recession. Markets didn’t get it yesterday but they have today which is why the US markets are tanking, and where they lead we follow.
The situation is worse in Europe as inflation is just as high, but 60% of it is rising energy costs, so raising interest rates will have limited effect, and besides Europe (where VOD derives most of its income) is already teetering on recession because of the Ukraine conflict. UK is some where in between the two and has more scope than Europe to raise rates, but nowhere near as much as the US. The governor of the Bank of England said almost 2 weeks ago that we are facing hyper inflation we can’t do much about, and a recession is looking likely, but again the magnitude of those comments still hasn’t sunk in.
VOD does have relatively stable income streams which they are trying to increase to keep up with inflation, but they have rising costs as well - everything from energy, wages and material/construction costs for the 5G rollout. Their forecasts in the results this week was for increased turnover, but flat EBITDA and slightly reduced FCF as the higher cost of borrowing and capex slowly kick in.
The dividend is safe for now but won’t be increasing and neither will profits. Bond yields are rising and it won’t be long before you can get a guaranteed 5% income from investment grade debt, so why on earth would you hold a share to get a 6% dividend yield when that dividend could be cut or stopped and there are significantly higher risks to your capital.
The UAE do indeed have money to burn and have been buying anything at any price for years, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.
VOD declined offers a few months ago as the price wasn’t good enough, and there’s no way in hell those offers are going to get any better from any shrewd investors / companies as they’ll be keeping their powder dry for potential fire sale bargains.
So the macro economic picture is rubbish and now results are out and there’s virtually no chance of any juicy M&A happening, I’m not really sure what could drive the price up in the short term, although ex div day is going to be a shorters wet dream now most of the upside risks are off the table, and they will be targeting £1 a share at least.
We are all entitled to our opinions about what might happen in the future, I’m just explaining what’s happening now.
Markets move in cycles, and right now it looks like the only cure for high inflation is a recession, so be prepared for that eventuality.
yes did have a look at phnx and mng but hold aviva as well so don't want any more insurers......looking to invest in a mining
Hi soton, I recently got psn , with a current div of around 10%, not a recommendation of course, but might be worth a look, but please dyor on that one, mng,dlg,phnx, are also good div payers similar to lgen
it ain't easy picking a winner is it.....I'm 57 still working at the mo so looking to secure some good dividend stock for an early retirement so any thoughts would be happily accepted got lloyds at an average of 59 but willing to hold on to that as think well hope that will come good...vodafone has been a bit of a roller coaster 129 average but happy to hold for the divi until it gets up to the 140 mark then reevaluate also have BT...BP....IUKD....LGEN...GSK and a few others
Hi soton, of course i wasn't thinking that, good luck to you for that, your probably a lot more experienced than me, but i was just trying to say be careful you get the next one at the right price, as you want to hold onto that profit, something I realise I'm crap at, that's why i do it in a few stages, good luck with whatever you pick and hope it does well
Hi fleccy and any others, so if the debt is not the main issue here, what do you think the reason is for this going back on the famous ski sope, as it's looking like it's heading in that direction right now, cheers guys, think we would all like all your thoughts on this
Hi Rob am not being smug about GLO bitterly disappointed as have said excellent divi with a good growth prospect like you said though profit is profit.....As for UKW i think there will be a share issuance later this year so if you gonna buy in to it don't go mad as if they do an issuance it will be in 135-140 region also they could be next in line for a takeover guess you pays your money and take a chance....it's not easy this share malarkey
"Hello fleccy. You sound a bit rattled today. unusual for you. What do you think about vod's deb't?"
Not rattled, just been roasting in this hot weather. I don't like Debt, but Vodafone has carried a ton of debt for years. If they wanted to go debt free, they could have done that when the sold their share in Verizon Wireless. I'm not sure why Telecom companies like to carry debt; They don't need to carry as much as they do, as they could focus on debt reduction using their profits, possibly at the expense of the dividend. It must suit them to carry the debt, otherwise they would reduce it, an accountant might have a good idea why.
I think the 8 years was in reference to Telecoms in general, with moves to 5G/IOT/FTTP. I said 8 years as companies like McKinsey reckon on multi Trillion Dollar revenuse from IOT by then.
"By 2030, we estimate that it could enable $5.5 trillion to $12.6 trillion in value globally"
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/iot-value-set-to-accelerate-through-2030-where-and-how-to-capture-it
That will be spread across multiple industries, but Telecoms should get a good cut of the profits imo.
Hello fleccy. You sound a bit rattled today. unusual for you. What do you think about vod's deb't? Is it manageable? You did mention 8 years for vod to turn this around in an earlier post which is a bit worrying I think? I don't think the average vod shareholder has that much patience? Cheers mate.
Gary. Fair point, Even I recommended your post.(your 1st post that is) At least you have a sense of humour. Have a good day.
" Time will tell & if I know VOD that will be a very long time."
That's your problem Gary, you know absolutely nothing about VOD.
Three reasons Rob, debt, debt & debt as Mikey correctly says it is still going up.
Perhaps four reasons as VOD need to shell out much, much more on upgrades etc every year just to stand still so very probably more debt. Proper investors just have no confidence in VOD apart from those lot who just brought nearly 10% at almost £1.30.
We have to ask ourselves why & why at that price, perhaps there is something in the offing or perhaps they just had too much money floating around. Time will tell & if I know VOD that will be a very long time.
Easy - the markets have no confidence in the muppet who is running the Company and his constant under delivering in his words he says every year at results . Debt is rising not falling - he constantly goes on about getting value for shareholders - hahaha - worst investment E& ever made !!!!!
The results seemed ok, so why is this still dropping, any ideas
Here we go - the yanks are taking us down again - maybe Read is part american !!!!!!!
I just hope that 'e&' don't decide that they have brought a kipper & sell their holding of almost 10%, that would bring us under 90p for certain.
Mikey & Daniel, can you just swap mobile numbers (VOD I hope) & then you =can both text your insults at each other & leave this board to what it is supposed to be.
It would save ALL the other readers & posters on here reading your sh i te.
Hi soton well done a profit is a profit, i did take a look but was getting better dividend elsewhere, another one i lost out on, have as many shares as i need right now, may be too many, trying yo improve on them by adding at a lower price than my first purchase when i get the opportunities, hate it when you buy a new stock then the price drops, my timing is terrible so having realised that i try and do it in a few stages, don't get the bottom price, but helps me to avoid buying at the top and being in the red forever, was looking at rio but entry price was looking too high at the time, how is ukw doing, renewables seem to be the future
Hi Rob not sure if you will remember but back in March i said have a look at GLO an energy stock....well gutted to say they are being brought out with a 36% upside...made a good profit on that but would have preferred to keep the stock as paid an excellent divi quarterly....not sure where to go with the proceeds safe to say it won't be here.....maybe will plummet for a mining stock.....
Thank's rob, what would we do without you? You should get the job of speaker in the the house of commons? Order. Order!!
Fair comment dan