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Under the table.. .x is going to happen (maybe a paranoid belief?)
Funnily enough though, my method to identify such a theory has been very successful
8 of 10 times a major move occurred, could have told you within 3 days prior.. ..watched the 'in the know' appear in consolidation .
And pretty easy see. I look for them every day at 4pm. Ftse top 350 mostly. Rarely miss one.
And that's when il say here....i bought....
a common approach to a buy, is to be as pessimistic as possible.. .and then see does the good still outweigh it....
I only seem negative here, because I believe all those forecasted reports of 'issues to income' are outweighing their buy analysis. Or another title cold be 'Risk to Capital assessment'. Same thing.
Of course thats only an opinion on my part. No more.
Like you, they will have a buy report full of positives. When the 'issues' reports gets outweighed...youll see em coming...or at least i will anyway...
I don't think professionals are allowed on a bb. Even if one did 7 years in a pension fund buying and holding etc, they couldn't say..
Don't know why you and others keep saying 'I maybe dont or couldn't understsnd'
Maybe I understand too well...hence my reasoning..
I'm just guessing here....but my assumption is that they manage holdings differently. Timing a key aspect, and deep analysis of the other side of the market vital.. especially if in a fund that cant short.. .and not an easy bull market.
"I have to say i find that strange. Not just fir capital reasons. But Dividend. "
The only thing that niggles me, is that I could have generated more income going forward, had my timing been better, as in the case of BT. I'm not sure you understand my investment philosophy. I buy into high yield dividend paying, blue chip, stocks. I did used to set targets, but not any more, so my investments are open ended. Some of my holdings are generating a lot of income, but i'm holding more than I feel comfortable with, so at some undefined time, in the future, I will sell some of my excess stock and diversify into other dividend paying stocks. In the meantime, im generating a nice income and have the choice to reinvest, or take the cash.
my price targets are never unrealistic. .
129p is as close as 235p. A price many bulls hope for in the long term.
But their is a difference right now . Market is on my side...and until it shifts...im the most realistic here...
im bot saying your reasons arw not buyable. I'm not saying its rubbish...im just saying.. .I need market to agree....and whether that's at 180 or 100 who knows.
Right now, I dont see the catalyst for negative sentiment, falling away....
"I don't make share price predictions, i'm not bothered if it goes to 240p, it's not something i think about. "
I have to say i find that strange. Not just fir capital reasons. But Dividend.
If you did predict 100p.....would you confidently go un here for income and assume dividend yield would not be affected?
I chase ex div runs. Have for years in a global scale. And i hsve very rarely seen a dividend not affected by sharp or consistent or recession drops.. .
In fact, I know one or two professional income positioners.. .and the first thing they look at is reason for SP to drop, to assess risk on dividend yield.
I don't know Pokerchips, so i can't comment, but i deeply disagree with the statement he made yesterday in associating the Liberty deal with US treasuries, if there's a connection it would be tentative at best. Some of the key financial points from the Liberty Deal announcement:
"UPC Czech, UPC Hungary and UPC Romania will be acquired on a cash-free, debt-free basis, while it is expected that Unitymedia’s existing bond structure (€4.5 billion outstanding today6) will be retained and refinanced over time, with €2.2 billion of Unitymedia’s term loans to be refinanced shortly after completion."
"The €10.8 billion of cash consideration payable to Liberty Global and the refinancing of Unitymedia’s term loans will be financed using Vodafone’s existing cash, around €10 billion of new debt facilities (including hybrid debt securities) and around €3 billion of MCBs, which will be issued prior to completion. The cash consideration payable to Liberty Global will be subject to adjustments for net debt and other items at completion."
"In total, Vodafone intends to achieve equity credit of €5-7 billion from credit rating agencies through the issuance of hybrid debt securities and MCBs, thereby securing a solid investment grade credit rating. Hybrid debt securities will not reduce Vodafone’s net debt on a reported basis. The MCBs will be accounted for as equity."
"The MCBs are expected to mature around three years after completion. Assuming the Group has sufficient headroom within its targeted 2.5-3.0x leverage range, Vodafone may elect to purchase the shares issued under the terms of the MCBs, thereby avoiding equity dilution."
"Dividend policy unchanged Vodafone reconfirms its intention to grow the dividend per share annually, which is further supported by the expected accretion to FCF per share from the Transaction"
Pokerchips has deep fundamental understanding.
I look at all those graphs he speaks of..
But can only translate them as bearish or bullish In my way..
My knowledge is deeply in charts. I'm looking for all the 'pokerchips' in price, to see where they are going..
I thought you might have come back with the Liberty Global deal, in Germany and Eastern Europe and the increase in debt levels, since Pokerchips brought it up yesterday and associated it with US treasury yields.
"What do you see as the catalyst for the drop to 129p?"
Mostly the current market. Whatever the catalyst was from the start of year, still exists imo
What was the catalyst? no idea. I analyse differently.
I am in shares all over America, UK, Japan , Aus and Germany.
I have to analyse differently. No time for company specific expertise. I let the market do that research for me. And try assess their sway.
Maybe what you say will be a bull catalyst...and if I see the true bulls come here one day, il be buying.
You may be right fleccy. But i want to see the market concur. Could happen before 2008 low. I dunno.
"The more it drops, the more the 'cheap' price sucks in retail. So il estimate 2008 low at around 12-18 months "
In 12 to 18 months the India merger shoud be complete and the Brexit picture should be a lot clearer. I don't make share price predictions, i'm not bothered if it goes to 240p, it's not something i think about. What do you see as the catalyst for the drop to 129p?
Yes agree. It's a weakness in most.
I was happy last week to call a price as bad for my position re to strike 190 on the third day above Elliot price.
Nobody of course jad issue with me calling a price above the days SP haha
For me, calling price is a confirmation thst somebody has analysed the market completely.. .after all if ni price a in mind , how can one track their own thoughts ?
As for saying price here, sure, opens me up to ridicule in the future....but I've no issue with that. Not very sensitive to these things.
last call - of course not, i don't post actual sp predictions, no need to imv.
often when people make ramptistic posts on bb's i see them as unsure of their call on a share and that they are looking for the conformation from others for re assurance. or perhaps they are day traders in an out for a profit.
its rare for holders of a share to predict a fall in my experience usually those predicting a fall and giving a actual sp figure are holding short positions, or are looking for a lower entry point.
often though posters, have different views on a particular share, that's natural, on occasions these discussions can get out of hand with neither poster wishing to give way.
i tend to post observations, as i see them.
i sometimes post when i buy in, to a share, or when i top slice, or get out.
to me all factual info and views are useful. however we all have the ability to study the markets, read rns, review websites, understand geo -political influences, and fiscal decisions etc.
but we are never to old to learn and all views should be considered.
How am i supposed to know a date??? No more then you can say when it will be 240p..
But il give it a guess. Time, can not be as accurate as prices obviously .. .example Elliot fund timing, stopped my estimate not stated here, of 160p already being hit
If it continues dropping at the same rate as the last 7 months, then 7 months.. .
But that is highly unlikely..
The more it drops, the more the 'cheap' price sucks in retail. So il estimate 2008 low at around 12-18 months