The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks for that link Roofer.
I think most in the link you have to pay for.
The subscription packages I subscribe to, use algo's in presenting the data they offer, and the charting software has it's own coding available for subscribers to set themselves. I usually take their presets and adjust the bits I need, occasionally, but no don't have much experience of them personally. Don't worry about them either.
Have you ever heard of Jim SImmonds? - former maths professor (think he worked for the CIA at one point) who has made billions derived from his algo's etc and computerised trading he devised. They call him "the man who cracked the stock market code". Articles claim he is more successful and wealthier than Warren Buffett and it is HE who is the world's most successful investor/trader. All from algo's and computerised trading. (He employed graduate scientists)
Rather than reinvent the wheel I ride on the back of the stock market trends already in play. You could say it's like being a parasite. Doesn't matter to me who is moving the market, if they make a stock retrace and it becomes significant then I don't fight it. Either short it or go to cash. And go long if a stock is in a bull run.
I'm pretty much settled in my methods these days, so I refine and refine around my core beliefs/principle which is - trend following. So computerised trading is no use to me now I have 'my system' in place. The weak link in the whole process is my self discipline something that would thankfully dissappear if handed over to automated ago's.
And if all those who fear that computerised trading has taken over - don't fear them - join them if you can't beat them If a stock is falling like a mad dog over a long term period - join in and short or go to cash. Why fight them by buying at guessed floors? Wait until the trend turns to the upside. And that's where I have (or think I have) a variety of differing trend periods, to see if it's to be short-lived or passes through each trend to the next stage up, until it becomes the prized/feared long term trend. Too much pressure/greed to get in at the exact bottom or exit at the very top. Most guru's say the exact same thing in the books: they never made their fortunes by buying at the exact bottom or selling at the exact top. The opposite of what we PI's engage in :)
For instance, Warren Buffett buys are often reported in the media.
99/100 times I can clearly see the trend has already changed in his favour, when he makes his move. Maybe it changed after he buys. Who cares? Up is up whoever starts the ball rolling. So much for buying when others are fearful. SP trends change at extremes of sentiment.
Interesting though.
There's a UK guy Tradeinformed? (Mark Ursell? ) not automated algo's etc., who charges only £20 for your own back testing via spreadsheets but that means you have to mess about with stockmarket data downloads from Google etc.,
Velo...link , interesting ive never bothered betting on horses, was wondering with all these books you read do you have any thoughts or experience on AI bots been used now which dominates trading scene now
( Weekend Chat ) thread
https://www.unite.ai/7-best-ai-stock-trading-bots/
That would be a good appointment following all the (economic) valuation work under Read ie structuring big deals and executing in a timely manner.
"WOW. And I thought I was an optimist. But you get top prize.. Of course all paper losses are losses. Everything is on paper, we no longer trade in bread or meat etc,it is all on paper. You and me are both chasing our losses, the only difference is I am not pretending"
I'm not chasing losses by averaging down my cost per share while I see my stocks as cheap, I see it as a good investment in a stock I believe in. I also don't see it as optimism in believing I'll do well at some point in the future, I see backing up my initial investments as calculated moves. I'm not alone in that sort of strategy, it's the sort of thing you'd hear from someone like Buffet and e& said as much when they made their latest purchase, in their words:
"The rationale of e&'s investment in Vodafone is unchanged from the original investment, as announced on 14 May 2022, which is to gain significant exposure to a world leader in connectivity and digital service at an attractive valuation."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VOD/e-announces-increased-investment-in-vodafone-nxvjucwm7v056ga.html
So they'll probably hold a BOD phone conference at half time and give us a ceo
WOW. And I thought I was an optimist. But you get top prize.. Of course all paper losses are losses. Everything is on paper, we no longer trade in bread or meat etc,it is all on paper. You and me are both chasing our losses, the only difference is I am not pretending otherwise. But of course we both agree on the desired end result. Please stick to what you know about, vod share buy back etc, but live in the real world. Good luck with your absolute faith though, I hope you are right?
Sorry - this is nothing to do with the price of butter and it is the weekend so doesn't really clog up the board but after mentioning below running a horse racing spreadsheet and mentioned about "the Computer Kid" I started reminiscing, was it the 80's or later? Decided to Google and see where he is today and if he was an adult masquerading as a kid (they gave him a column in the Sun; and displayed his picks next to the tipsters on screen on the TV horse racing afternoons.
And I came across this -
" The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
- If you read it out of interest or boredom :) It's the 2nd article below the confusing introductory article.
"Sorry fleccy, I love your confidence,& the fact you are one of the only posters on here that seems to understand the share buy back scheme, you do seem to lose your sense of reality sometimes. I.E. You & me are losing money, but hopefully we can win it back, of course? Just be honest with yourself?"
Speak for yourself Daniel, if you perceive a paper loss as losing money that's up to you, but I see a paper loss as transitional and it only becomes a real loss once I sell. In February my investments were in the black, I was showing a paper gain but I didn't realise the gain because I didn't sell, so it works both ways. Since I earn dividends I have the choice to reinvest while the price is low, or I could just as easily use the dividends for income if the shares become expensive.
At worst, by sitting on a paper loss we might be missing opportunities to invest elsewhere, and make big profits should we be lucky enough to invest in the next big thing, but we could just as easily invest in something high risk that destroys our capital completely.
To clarify my way of thinking, lets say Vodafone goes up to £2.40 again, which would be a paper gain of nearly £1 per share for me, I might choose to leave my investment in place and keep collecting the dividends as income and I can look at the gain in my share dealing accounts and feel good about it, if I was that way inclined, but in reality my capital position is no better than it is now unless I choose to sell. It might be hard for you to understand, but emotionally I don't worry about sitting on a paper loss, I do get irritated at the market narrative and games, that I view as false, but that's about it.
jedclampit, it definitely helps if you get a bit of luck on your side, one of the first shares i invested in was Lloyds, i was showing a nice profit there several years back, then they got hit badly with the ppi claims, as the claims were just coming to an end Lloyds announced they were going to pay quarterly dividends and things were starting to look good for Lloyds, then came the pandemic that pushed them right down again then came putins war then inflation, now not even high interest rates can get them moving due to the recession, you definitely need some good luck sometimes
Dan, it's good that you can be honest about it, we all know vod/bt and lloyds have been poor performers over the last 6 years, and sometimes it's not so much the shares that you have invested in, it's just bad timing and also bad luck, shares drop and rise, only sometimes they drop and drop you think ok give a bit more time and they will come back up, but they continue to drop and before you know it your caught in a no win situation, you either sell at a loss or try and make it look better by adding more and waiting for something good to happen to turn it around
now let's hope this new CEO or ever they might be can make the right decisions and build investors confidence in this share
I'm sure most people who invest in the stock market have been in this situation at some time, if they are honest
Fleccy. Sorry mate but you are trying to come out with all this complicated technical stuff. But It is very simple. An annuity is worthless when you die, & as you get older becomes gradually worth less . An investment however doesn't. It is not rocket science, just common sense. I thought you were a fan of holding vod shares as opposed to an annuity, but you seem to contradict yourself so many times. If you had bought vod shares when they were £2plus . then now it would be a very bad investment compared to a annuity, but to buy now at 84p, possible very good. Sorry fleccy, I love your confidence,& the fact you are one of the only posters on here that seems to understand the share buy back scheme, you do seem to lose your sense of reality sometimes. I.E. You & me are losing money, but hopefully we can win it back, of course? Just be honest with yourself?
"fleccy. The main difference between self investment & an annuity, is that with an annuity, when you die, your investment dies with you, but with an investment , it doesn't. Big difference!"
There are various options with annuities in respect of spouses, and I didn't consider the after death capital inheritance issue, since we were talking in terms of income while alive; But you're correct, in inheritance terms it makes a big difference.
"As a tax payer I think I prefer the lowest tax option over the long term and all non discretionary spend will be covered by annuities in my retirement."
I'm not really clear on annuities. I've had three pensions over my lifetime, two are final salary pensions and the third was a DC pension which I put into drawdown, investing the cash into stocks in the ISA's; I didn't even consider an annuity due to the amount involved and my age; I also wasn't earning at the time I put the DC pension into drawdown, so I was entitled to 25% tax free plus my income tax allowance on the first payment, which was two thirds of the entire pot. I did have to pay some income tax on the drawdown payouts, but insignificant as far as I was concerned.
Everyone's circumstance are different and retirement planning is like buying a pair of shoes, one size and style doesn't fit all, so you have to look for the correct size in the style that suits you.
Fleccy, yes there are multiple options for everyone at every phase in the life cycle. I suppose a financial adviser would ask you to tick the low risk, medium risk or high risk box. Active or Passive etc
As a tax payer I think I prefer the lowest tax option over the long term and all non discretionary spend will be covered by annuities in my retirement. Hobsons choice whether you pay tax on income and then put it into an ISA to grow tax free or if you avoid tax by putting it into a SIPP, then later get 25% tax free and drawdown on a tax efficient glide path.
fleccy. The main difference between self investment & an annuity, is that with an annuity, when you die, your investment dies with you, but with an investment , it doesn't. Big difference!
"Think I read recently you could buy a £7k level annuity for £100k."
Maybe if you're over 65, but that's still a good few years away for us.
https://www.hl.co.uk/retirement/annuities/best-buy-rates
There are different ways to look at this, with the annuity you're return is safe no matter how long you live, whereas self investing comes with risk.
If you could be 100% sure that Vodafone would maintain their dividend and the company is sound, currently you could get £21,000 a year income for a total investment of £222,654 + dealing cost, but can anyone be sure that the dividend wont be cut? That's where the risk comes with self investing over an annuity. Something else to consider is that building a self investment portfolio in ISA's gives tax free return but again with risk.
Thanks for your last couple of posts..great xchange ..interesting info
Am a Vod holder and not sure where this decline will settle
Good luck with your investments all
'So, to build a portfolio paying £21,000 a year in dividends, across the three stocks, would cost £335,030'
Think I read recently you could buy a £7k level annuity for £100k. So £300k would buy £21k income. That's a peaceful passive income except that inflation is running hot. If you wanted indexed annuities and cover for her indoors you could reduce that income alot
"Not to keen on you revealing too much ££'s and pence in your posts because you never know who's reading these posts."
I'm not too worried, as there are much easier targets on Crypto exchanges and it'd take some serious investigation/hacking/electronic manipulation to target someone like me over the filthy rich easier targets.
In terms of building a portfolio from my three stocks, look at the dividend income on Lloyds, BT and Vodafone and you'll see the investment/yield make them attractive, as long as investors research them and are happy with the safety of their investment.
This isn't the split on our investments, but lets assume a three way split of stock for a portfolio holding Lloyds, BT and Vodafone at current prices.
BT current price 112.95p
VOD current price 83.76p
Lloy current price 45.18p
Lets assume someone is receiving full year dividends of £21,000 across the three stocks, so £7,000 from each.
BT
BT's dividends last year totaled 7.7p
7000/0.077 = 90,909 shares, current value £102,682
VOD
VOD dividends last year 9 Eurocent (7.9p)
7000/0.079 = 88,608 shares Current value £74,218
Lloy
Lloyds dividends last year 2p
7000/0.02 = 350,000 shares Current value £158,130
So, to build a portfolio paying £21,000 a year in dividends, across the three stocks, would cost £335,030. Clearly Vodafone gives the best dividend return for the least investment and Lloyds the worst, at current share prices, assuming I've done my math correctly.
As a comparison to vod's 4x FCF:
verizon ca 10x
Deutsche Telekom ca 7.5x
Orange ca 8x
Trading now at ca 4x FCF
Hi Fleccy,
"... we're receiving dividends of around £22,000 a year.. "
---------------
Gezalou! I'm seriously impressed there, Fleccy. If you own your home - you could live on that income!
(With a little bit of LBYM's:)
PS.
Not to keen on you revealing too much ££'s and pence in your posts because you never know who's reading these posts.
ie., Read years ago, fraudsters patrol Facebook picking up on those broadcasting the dates their homes will be empty whilst telling all when they go on holiday - when defending your methodology with personal £££'s & pence, from envious posters who feel they can only succeed by putting down others - as if other investors are the sole reason for all their personal failures.
I have so many investing books that I've run out of storage space. Overall my takeaway is that fortunes have been made from all styles of investing methodolgy.
Good morning all, Good god all this talk about floors and charts etc etc,I have been playing this game for 40 odd years and the 1 thing many / most have not mentioned is LUCK .
You play the game with what you like but it's all just a big game of luck. simple as that.
"VOD is still in a long term bear downtrend. So is BT. That's fact not opinion. The fun comes in deciphering when the floor is in."
The only people who know where the floor is, are the big players writing the script in the background. The easiest way of investing, not trading, is to buy when you see value with no set holding period; We're currently sitting on some quite hefty paper losses, but I consider our three stocks BT, Vod and LLoyds to all be undervalued. On the plus side we're receiving dividends of around £22,000 a year and reinvesting dividends in the ISA's, while taking the dividends in the share dealing accounts to be used for other things.
Some people attack this style of investing, as they seem to think dividends are useless and trading's the way to go. It takes confidence in your investments to hold when you're underperforming, but I see value in our investments and reinvesting half the dividends gives us growth, while the other half goes into our bank account for other uses, like forward buying shares in the isa's, then reducing stock in the standard share dealing accounts; You just have to make sure you sell in the standard account when the price goes above your purchase price in the ISA. Everyone has different investment goals and strategies and should do their own research, but what we're doing suits us.
" Remember buying shares phoning your broker then and getting a contract and a month later a certificate in the post and then dividends by cheque. Checking share prices in the newspaper or teletext!"
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Ha! I certainly do. The thrill of receiving a cheque in the post dropping through the letterbox is one I never forget. And those share certificates were works of art. Must have been expensive too (the one's that were heavily embossed with regal crests)
Tempted to frame mine but used to think: But what if a burglar breaks in? So beautiful were the share certificates that after Big Bang a market opened up for collectable certificates on eBay. Haven't checked but believe there's still a market for the old worthless beautiful crested certificates on eBay - regarded as works of art!
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Android101 - yep got all of them. A ton of data on days and weeks of the month. Have pared down a lot of the indicators and expanded the ones that fit my style. Got hundreds of years of data going back to the formation of stock market investing from when they were carried out in London's coffee houses curtesy of various data studies by researchers etc., Too much as often ignore the triple witching hour occasions etc., it all gets picked up in my ultra short term trends anyway. In other words Trend Following for me :)
Subscription specialist charts I can personally go back to 1900 on anything. Further back than that for checking out other things I refer to researchers when their work is available freely.