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As you know I am well out of pocket ATM with an ave of around 197 so to reduce same:-
If we get to well above where we are now say 170, what I was thinking was to sell 25 / 50% late Wed night just before exdd keeping the remainder. It will go down at least the 4p divi price, may be more as we did last time.
Stage 2 Buy them back the next day so that gives me two options, get the divi's 4p on those not sold and the option to buy back at maybe less than the 4p drop. If that happens I will get more than the divi payment, possible 5/6p ?? That mean's if the SP gets back to the 170 in a few weeks after I still have the same amount of shares but more dividend cash or shares ? I think lol
Thanks very much for your post, just what the doctor ordered !!! Great bit of appreciated detail and sense to say the least. I think you have hit the nail on the head and it looks like the markets have taken NR's statements on board and have turned the tides North at last.
Nicely put, Velo - if a share price is so sensitive to sentiment, it’s not one to hold long-term. I’d agree that Voda is now well and truly in that category; although the Div may be protected for now, that’s only a couple of years - and will it recover to pre-slide levels in that time? If so, could expect a big sell as that 2 years nears the end. It’s classic kicking the can down the road - the market doesn’t trust vodafone’s Fundamentals (I’d wager that’s mainly based on debt).
Now I can switch off. TomE you take care. Hi h. Il see you back here on 200p. Danielh will be happy im taking a looooong vacation. Pokerchips still counting his profits. Velo still analysing. Il come around once every few months or so. But holding not enough for me to worry so much. World war 3 was scaring me.
I took 161 as my average was around there. After buying some at 144p. Now I can breathe. Not look at it everyday every minute I know theres probably profit to be made and I sold early but try explaining to the wife I've put everything into vodafone.
Im only holding onto 100k shares in isas. And 233,785 in trading account. They can stay there for divi now. I've avoided the need to explain to the wife why I cant pay off the mortgage when it comes out of contract in dec. So now im relaxed. So I won't be here much il come when it passes my isa average of 175p.
Yes, quite a turnaround & though it always looked oversold to some of us, one did wonder. Obviously maintaining dividends is key as it's attracted more money from funds. I'd also add that some of the more bearish calls here for 90p, et al, were always more about mischief-making, nothing more.
Indeed, let's hope all do well here, Mrd et al, via their own approach. More than one way to be successful, but sticking by what works for one over time never a bad idea. - Regards.
Tom, your open question at 10:52am this morning - ----------
Tom, I think it's wholly a question of sentiment, and absolutely nothing else, certainly not fundamentals IMO. The year long bearish sentiment towards VOD, did a 100% turnaround yesterday, and confirmed this morning..
When sentiment is already in an established bearish down trend towards a company, then yes the example you give has been repeated many times elsewhere, of the SP failing to recover after exiting the XD period.
Had a truism rammed home to me yesterday, that fundamentals count for nowt - it's sentiment alone and nothing else that drives shares (and to me for the immediate future that means trend following, rules the roost).
Tell me, what is fundamentally different today, with VOD's accounts that was fundamentally different all this year leading up to Tuesday?
- The answer is nothing, to very little, everything that was known all year - was known on Tuesday. What has changed is SENTIMENT. I think on the balance of probabilities, should this current sentiment remain intact, then this forthcoming XD period will reinforce that this has been a turning point in VOD's very recent history. (That is, at least until the next crisis pops up :)
The reason sentiment changed? Purely on confirmation that even though dividends can't be fully met from earnings for the next 2 years, the dividend amount will be held (with perhaps the interim payments frozen). And that the shortfall will (confirmed again) easily be met from free cash flow.
Turns out the market wasn't worried over whether VOD can afford the current dividends, it was more concerned about having divis cut! The market was told in no uncertain terms, with serious intent - that the dividend is sort of 'ring-fenced' - and the market went batsh!t crazy. It was all about greed rather than fiscal prudence. It never was all about the affordability of the dividend - it was all about the market FEARING the dividend would be cut.
I have figures that show, far from producing a profit for the current year, that based on yesterday's update it will instead be a full year net loss! Yet the market chooses to not care - it's all about being convinced the dividends will be maintained and financed, safely as they see it, from free cashflow. I have my doubts. But I have to side with sentiment, and hope I can get out of the way pronto, should my doubts and fears come home to roost.
Henceforth I feel safer trading VOD rather than investing. All charts are now singing VOD's praises. Trends are pointing up. I see potentially a little (temporary) blip possibly coming, but it coincides rather nicely and conveniently with the XD period; hence my preference to trade rather than invest. I will take a position in VOD during the XD period. If I'm very lucky I'll get that 143p - doesn't matter; but all previous opinions of sub 140p I now herewith take off the table.