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"Germany their biggest market is now in an unexpected recession = unexpected huge decline in revenue"
Why will that translate to a huge decline in revenue? People still use their mobile phones and watch TV during recessions.
"Selling assets to pay off debt = desperate"
I used to work for Vodafone, made redundant in 2019, and back then they were constantly looking at selling assets they didn't consider Core. In fact throughout my time working for VOD, they were constantly assessing what to keep and what to unload, this is nothing new.
"Keeping the divi at marginal (and marginal is important here) sustainable levels = reckless"
I'm surprised they've maintained the dividend myself, but they wouldn't pay it unless they thought they could afford it and they could easily drop it if they needed too, hardly a sign of a company in terminal decline.
Parity with BT is my prediction
10% down tomorrow
Still 90% short on various markets but started to pick up a few bargains today - but not these.
There is no conspiracy, these aren't being played, it's a further downward rerating on the higher inflation and therefore higher interest rate numbers is my guess.
Still a way to go before the market bottoms - so no rush...
Germany their biggest market is now in an unexpected recession = unexpected huge decline in revenue
Selling assets to pay off debt = desperate
Keeping the divi at marginal (and marginal is important here) sustainable levels = reckless.
No tier on interest rate hikes.
To name a few
For once I agree with fleccy.
VOD is still making billions.
It's cut its debt, and costs (workforce)
I dont believe in conspiracy theories but it does seem like the sp collapse is being managed somehow.
"Vod is becoming terminal"
jax, show us a detailed financial analysis to back up your statement, I guarantee you wont be able to.
Malone and Liberty Group allegedly have a 4.9% stake in VOD as of March 2023 (no mention of him shorting it? Anything is possible in this rogue as **** market though!)
"This has all the signs of a walk down in price, before a full takeover - increasing the premium so it is approved by shareholders - 100p offer will be 31% premium and an opportunistic deal!"
There's no way Vodafone would be sold off for £1 a share. The only way a takeover would happen is if the BOD went along with it and although poison pill strategies are illegal in the UK, there are plenty of legal ways to prevent a takeover at a low price. Also I suspect there'd be more than one bidder, if a too low a price was offered.
Yet there won’t be a takeover bid
Vod is becoming terminal
I stick with my prediction tomorrow
I suppose it could be E&, another 1.5%, but that would be 1% over their 15% authorisation and would suggest they are going for 20% and a 2nd board member. Could be Malone closing his short which he said he would do ultimately, but more to come to close his position.
RNS this week?
This has all the signs of a walk down in price, before a full takeover - increasing the premium so it is approved by shareholders - 100p offer will be 31% premium and an opportunistic deal!
Doesn't make sense. We are now circa €24b market cap, plus €33b debt = €57b EV. A very simple sum of parts will get you easily to €80b, which means 2x current market cap ie circa 140p.
EBITDA is €13.3b ie EV is 4x EBITDA. Yes, FCF impacted near term BUT a combination of cost cutting, energy cost subsiding, corporate M&A and debt reduction from remaining Vantage disposal more than supports a higher EV. Dividend IS sustainable.
Something is up with the SP action and it isn't based on fundamentals!
At this rate, VOD could be a single digit penny share!
Our highly talented and observant BOD would notice that I am sure ;) So, they would decide to consolidate 1:10 which brings the SP nearer to £1 again but cut the dividend pay out by 90%. And all Vodaphone problems solved :D
What's there to worry about! (Shhhh .... don't tell anyone that the number of shares held by everyone get reduced by 90% as well)
It is really getting silly now, over 20% drop in a month!
This is Vodafone. An Elephant that's not supposed to move this fast.
You're not wrong, the average daily on exchange volume is around 60 to 70 million per day, 315,270,194 UT is massive.
what she said was amateurish and destructive.
to think not only us pis have been turned over but also institutions and pensions - double whacked by the ***** at the helm
I bought in at 84 for the div, decided to dump it at 78p enough is enough. Not touching anything that trades in USD while the USA debt limit isn't agreed. This is going down until 5th June. If there's a spat in the senate, more pain is coming.
In any case after a long hard think. Vod doesn't really match my risk profile. I don't usually go for heavily indebted firms. Was hoping for a quick bounce at 84, but hey-ho
Know when to limit your losses. I'm going to grab a quick bargain somewhere next week at max fear, for now market jitters will prevail.
Rick.
It’s dropped just under 2% for a few days, it’s hardly dived. If you bought at a £1 or higher it’s a headache, I get it, but it’s not the end of the world as you believe if you read this thread.
Agree. If you look at the SP either there is an imminent decrease in divi or this is the biggest bargain around. A yield of over 10% when interest rates are a maximum of 5% and likely to decrease as inflation comes down? I can understand that with an ill researched AIM share but something like Vod (who were I believe once the company with the highest cap on the FTSE) is analysed up, down, left, right and sideways by the city. i don't get it. Having got stung in the Carillion debacle I am wary of big name, very high yielding shares.
Tomorrow is d day I see a 10%? drop and a temp trading suspension
That is NOT normal!!
The UT was a whopping 315,200,000 !!
Some massive after hours trades in the millions.
This daily drip drip fall is highly suspicious...
The CEO has killed Vod with her comments, she needs to be kicked out
On the day we’re circa 65% lower than ftse100 and if you’re comparing the Ftse 100 to Vod then look at the 1 year chart:
Ftse down 1%
Vod down 40%
Open your eyes for a second
“Also we ended up down 1.65% against the FTSE being 1% down. so, it's not as doom and gloom as you make out Jax”
BT a fellow telco was up what a smidge under a percent - something is killing Vod
Definitely a strange one, why position for another place on the board at 25% if they weren't looking to add to their position. And if they are looking to add its surely at a price that would be attractive to them.
Also we ended up down 1.65% against the FTSE being 1% down. so, it's not as doom and gloom as you make out Jax. I reckon we could have a bit of positive news from the debt ceiling overnight which will help the markets recover slightly, so i'm going for a 0.5% to 1% increase tomorrow.
Yes FCA short trackers shows zero UK based short positions but this sort of daily, relentless slide on low volume is 100% a short selling attack.
I refer again to what Tiger Global did to Tesco in 2015/16. So OK a 10.5% yield now; >5% for June alone; no Etisalat holdings RNS yet...