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74.1 for me please Roofer. Thanks
75.3 please
74.25 please
Roofer 73.91 for me please.
👍🏼
Mesh
Fair points.
The revenue number you are referring in FY23 is definitely after the elimination of discontinued business activity.
The analyst projections maybe a full year impact of discontinued business activity or it maybe the handset lifecycle or something else. I imagine the mix of propositions are moving toward data only and consumers using handsets for longer. There is ultimately a handset replacement cycle when things wear out or become obsolete (5G etc).
Not sure how they feather in price increases but its likely they look at prior periods and are behind the curve.
On net debt, you referring to the range. The consensus is the mean net debt reduces
Net Debt €41.6Bn FY22
Net Debt €33.4Bn FY23
Net Debt €32.9Bn FY24 outlook
Re DAB platform, I agree its an enabler and VOD particularly expects to capitalise in the Business segment. I think Mpesa is an Africa product and is scaled differently to Europe. Africa certainly can generate stellar growth rates if thats what the analsysts have in their models.
Telcos are looked at through a legacy lens and regulated in that way. A positive is only licensed regulated operators can provide services and as long as they are not creating consumer harm and are competing efficiently etc, thats a barrier to entry and therefore the cashflow projections are probably more reliable than other industries looking ahead at the macro.
I dont know anything about algo analysts but I can imagine AI beating many at a game of chess.
In the meantime, we have to wait and see H1. JPM may have presented Spain options in that timeframe too. 9c div for FY24 is my guess
Vod closing Sp 30th June
Exil 73.5p
Roofer 73.41p
List so far
Noveck many thanks for your insight
Atb
Can i go 73.5 please Bob
Android,
Always funny to read " analysts' projections, which are typically a follow a herd mentality mindset to ensure they are all either right or wrong.
Most surprising is their projection on revenue, where they are anticipating a drop by ca 5%. Likely an adjustment to sold off entities, but what about price inflation and growth of new products? I.e. they are projecting revenues to be flatlining around 43bn for the next two years. How is that possible in a scenario of above inflation price hikes of 10%+, both on the commercial as well as private side of the business. Just look at Vodafone's performance in turkey. Europe will follow suit given the rampant inflation.
In a similar vein, they are also anticipating debt to grow, why?
All it takes for the telcos to take off, and vod in particular, is when the dumb money realises A.I. needs a proper platform to flourish and to achieve the scale distribution its craving. As per previous post, Vod's DAB platform is a game changer and only a matter of time before everyone jumps on to ride it out. Couple this with the prospects of integrating it with digital payment platforms such Mpesa.
It's clear that traditional telco analysts are looking through things via a legacy lens through which to make predictions and to price assets accordingly. A shift is on the way as new technologies are converging and these legacy analysts will be a thing of past, when replaced by algo analysts who are better equipped to connect the current dots.
PS "same" analysts want you buy Nvidia and Tesla at current levels
Vod closing Sp 72.69p
Noveck 71.8p winner
KiwiTwo 69.6p
Doyen Dan 78p
Beo1 75.25p
Jax05 62p
Robleo 76p
Prk1 74.8p
Tars 81.5p
CWWX 70.5p
Forensic 81p
Exil 75p
DarkBlue 77p
KelBoy 79p
Tindal 77.5p
Newsid 71.2p
Roofer 75.55p
Atb
The dividend looks safe and VOD has a few options to keep it on track.
I prefer the cash now (3rd August div payment date?) rather than the revenue line and 10% inflation.
Thats useful, thank you Android101. Makes me think how JPM will handle the Spain (divestment?), what the baseline is etc. As JPM contribute to the consensus, I assume the consensus is something close to the baseline they will be using to present options on Spain?
Spain revenue is c€3.5Bn and adjusted EBITDal c€0.9Bn according to FY23 report.
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2023-06/2023-vgplc-form-20-f.pdf
This is a handy crib sheet if you find yourself struggling with numbers to use in posts.
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2023-06/consensus-output-june.pdf
https://investors.vodafone.com/reports-information/analyst-coverage-consensus
Cheers Roofers, I said several weeks ago when this was in the 90's it would hit 70's. There is continuous talk of a rerating on here. It is being rerated but not in the way some suggest it should - it's being downgraded for several structural reasons - cost to service the debt, seemingly inept management, poor customer care and a resultant drop in real revenue.
On top this there was likely going to be a market correction which now seems to slowly happening, and I didn't see VOD bucking the trend.
I manage money for a living and I play the markets for fun, I've done it for 30 years and get more right than wrong. This will turn but probably not in the way that many believe so I'll add slowly from here and hold.
“Let’s not forget it makes 10bn a year profit. “
And dropping by the day. Germany is ripping the heart out of Vodafone
Well, one observation is that today we didn't have the usual plonkers on here, constantly trash talking their nonsense about this company, some pretending to be invested here. Another is that, like myself, people tend to buy low and sell high and clearly Vodafone are at their lows for this year. Only one way for Vod at the moment, that's up!
Ignore the silly shorties and day traders on here, Vod will be £1+ by xmas and GLA.
Another one of jax's predictions wrong today. As per usual then.
Speech Speech Noveck, what's your secret...atb
There are 40 things dragging it down and 41 dragging it up today. Think the market/ consensus is generally steering toward more up than down with recession threatening. I can imagine subscriptions to other media being cut by consumers under cost pressure. I can't imagine no mobile phone/ device. However, MDV has to execute a major ticket item to keep the momentum going. There is plenty in the playbook. I can see private equity SP under pressure from higher interest rates, so E&, Liberty and Illiad mergers etc more prominent strategically.
I believe this has hit around the low now. There may be a last push down to just below 70 to clear out the final ‘weak hands’, but I think we’re in a clear accumulation stage and will start the push upwards in the not too distant future.
Agree
Accolade this week goes to "Noveck " not robbed this week, well done
Vod closing Sp 23rd June 72.69p
Full list will follow
Enjoy your weekend...atb
Clear as day has turned the corner
8,182
Vol. Sold 14,474,707
Sold Value £10.50m
Vol. Bought 40,124,281
Bought Value £29.14m
PE Ratio 1.930526
Earnings 37.65295
Dividend 7.808674
Yield 10.742%
Time for the long and the shorts to chill, me thinks. Have a good weekend!
https://youtu.be/9wxI4KK9ZYo
LARGE AFTER HOUR ORDERS HAVE STARTED COMMING IN.UNTILL NOW THEY HAVE BEEN SELLS