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To be honest I don't think Europe needs to worry about debt levels - he debt to GDP ratio in Japan reached 220% and they have dominated foreign markets with their cars and medical technology for over 50 years.
Personally I have travelled around Europe recently and although I prefer statistics to anecdotes I do feel I must believe my own eyes and experience - and what I saw was a noticeably lower level of economic activity than I have ever witnessed before in Europe - businesses were empty of customers, many buildings were left abandoned in prime locations for tourist businesses, traffic was noticeably lower on the roads.
Hence I don't think Europe's policymakers have a choice - they either print more money or allow to happen what they probably should have allowed to happen in 2008. That is to say I still think they should of allowed the financial crash to run its natural course, i.e. for all of the crazy debts built up during the previous decade to go bankrupt - for the banks to go bankrupt, for over-indebted property owners to forfit their homes, and for the financially sane people (who hadn't indulged in the previous crazy debt binge) to pick up the assets at the prevailing market price (following all of the bankruptcies and forfitures) - and that market price would have been very low - property would now be valued a quarter of what it is - but at least people would have learned a valuable lesson that you can't just keep printing and expecting other people not to care that their hard-earned savings (sometimes their entire life savings) are quickly becoming worthless just because a madman like Sir Fred Goodwin decided that in his eyes it was normal for house prices to increase 15% every year when the governments official inflation figures were about 3.5%.
Re . Jack I haven't been looking on site for a few hours. I can only assume desperate Dan put abusive comments on the thread and got it deleted. Doesn't surprise me, appears to be a man of few coherent words!
I am happy to report to you fellow unlucky, miserable, preyed-upon private investors. We shall not return to our last low again so please hold on tight, add and don’t make the mistake of jumping out early.
Just my opinion guys, your capital is at risk and FCA don’t give a toss about private investors as we are down in the food chain order.
..just seen your post, fair enough
Forget cash, without huge debt the U.K and U.S.A would be war zones. The debt that allows countries to hand out benefits, fake jobs via quangos and pointless military in peacetime is really good compared to poor African and Asian countries with bad credit rating and zero welfare. VOD must indulge in more debt, I think we should go directly to ECB and borrow extra €30bn at 0.5% for 40 years for European domination.
Not sure Jack. I think it was about debt and literary references to research company SP performance when holding to much debt.
I think Vod debt is OK'ish given its regulatory obligation to provide coverage to whole populations. A rational service provider who wants to maximise profit would focus on 40% geographic coverage catching 80% of the population.
If governments are using QE to pay public sector salaries, then a certain level of debt seems appropriate to finance the additional 'regulatory related' network assets required as long as the network is operated efficiently, encouraging innovation, public welfare etc.
NR has ameliorated with options on share buyback and debt conversion depending on post Liberty performance which in my mind is a simple subscriber based model based on bundled quad play prices and consumer spend/ affordability etc...
The SP seems like it is trying to bottom. Our next problem maybe when to top slice/ sell without missing significant further upside!
Good luck and all
Well after asking LSE for a reason, giving credit to LSE, Craig of customer services replied quickly explaining that my post went as earlier parts of the thread were unacceptable. Fair enough.
Substance of my post to Moniman: well considered bearish posts were as useful as bullish ones. I agree VOD was mismanaged in recent years. About 18 successive years of divi increases before last interim, whilst allowing debt to become alarmingly high. No wonder Colao left when he did, selling his entire holding.
No acclaimed investor thinks that high debt is okay. Not Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, et al. On principle they avoid stocks with high debt for a few reasons. Not least that when it gets to the stage of spooking markets, there's always a sharp sell-off resulting in huge losses, paper or otherwise.
In VOD's case, a further increase in debt seems inevitable to finance the $22 billion Liberty Deal. So one wonders what would happen to VOD's SP if the EU decided not to approve the deal on 2nd May? perhaps quicker recovery as they'd avoid increasing debt & could reduce current levels faster.
Nice rise today against a widely falling FTSE. Just hope volume is significant & we can consolidate. - GLA.
Why, Lords knows. It was a rational view to Moniman free of bad or inappropriate language. Result! I won't waste my time making more contributions here until I'm preparing to exit. - GLA.
Fingers crossed for tomorrow
If you don't have wishful thinking, then why invest on the stock market, try life insurance instead!! But of course at the moment 1.60 would be great,& beyond in the short term is of course, as you say, wishful thinking. But come on, you don't seriously believe that vod is run by clowns. I just don't believe you are that naive. If only it was as easy as you suggest, to run a company like vodafone? The back him or sack him vote(Nick) is still open until 12 march. yes or no. AW100 fingers as always crossed.
What's that word, starts with a J, & ends with ous. I just wish I was so rich, that I was embarrassed by it. Another word that springs to mind, is, Starts with Hip. & ends with cal. But 1.60 is good. But if I was a moanyman, I would be pi##ed off. But I am not. Put it this way, If I had inside info, that moniman was to be the new C.E.O , I would sell 1st thing tomorrow!
'Does VOD have more Verizon loan notes? I think the last one is being used for this buyback'
I think that's right..
SEC Form 6-K January 29, 2019
As announced on 19 February 2016, when the MCB was issued Vodafone also entered into an accompanying option structure. This option structure will ensure that the total cash outflow to execute the Programme will be broadly equivalent to the £1.44 billion raised on issuing the second tranche of the MCB, regardless of any differential between the conversion price and the ordinary share price during the execution of the Programme. Therefore, the maximum pecuniary amount allocated to the Programme is £1.5 billion (taking into account money received or paid under this accompanying option structure).
The Programme will be financed out of the proceeds from Vodafone’s Verizon loan notes, which Vodafone received in two tranches as partial consideration for the sale of its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless in 2014. Vodafone received US$2.5 billion in cash in May 2018 following the redemption of the second tranche of these loan notes.
FTSE down, VOD up + on good volume. That constitutes a relatively decent day (for a change) in context.
No-one knows 100% for sure if the bottom has been found. Much depends on final results in May. But there's certainly a good chance the worst may be very close to being behind us. If so, it's no more than those of us who've bought from far higher up & who are still holding on, deserve.
Those who complain after buying very recently: I hope you manage to book your profits soon & find better fortune elsewhere. No-one pretends this game is easy. - GLA.
Doing a ENOFADOV. Unless my screen is upside down?
You seem very uptight, for one who has bought at 1.36,(hardly loosing your shirt). You say the BOD are responsible for all shareholders, I disagree, they are responsible for the majority of shareholders. Big difference. You can't please all the people, all the time. As in representative democracy, But no offence, & I hope nun toucan.
Does VOD have more Verizon loan notes? I think the last one is being used for this buyback.
'They use their Verizon money, dont they?'
Not sure on the numbers, what is ringfenced and how the MCB €4Bn is drawn down/utilised. This link sets out the original Verizon deal and its accompanying commentary ...
'Vodafone will retain by inference 30% of the money, enabling it to halve the level of debt on its balance sheet, taking the firm down to the lowest levels it has seen since 2005. The company will also significantly reduce its share count and hereby "significantly improve" dividend cover.'
" don’t think VOD can buyback €4bn."
They use their Verizon money, dont they ? ...already set up that way ...isnt it ?
The international roaming costs may be a red herring as more traffic goes OTT and calls home go via wifi rather than legacy international circuits.
The industry governance has long dealt with US security issues over Huawei and customer contracts. A complete ban would be disruptive not just Vod but operators who are even more dependent on 3rd party suppliers like H3G or brands like Virgin/ Tesco
meh, I think ECB also believe inflation will run below target for longer too. Vod will need to get its (liberty) quad play pricing balanced/ bundled to flow through as growth.
The ECB has announced some new stimulus measures, earlier than economists were expecting.
It plans a series of longer-term loans, to encourage banks to lend.
It kept its main interest rates at negative 0.4%.
There will be more detail when ECB President Mario Draghi holds a media conference at 13:30 GMT.
ECB pushes interest rates further into future
Several posts from you, without any £##. Perhaps that's the sign of a good day to come, I thought you bought at below the current price?
Yes I would like to top slice at least. I am not sure about the MCBs timeframe. Liberty bondholders have an option to go with Vod or not and the €4Bn may be offset or a fudge?