Vodafone Share Chat (VOD)

Yes this certainly looks sicklical to me....sick as a dog.....and going down down deeper and down......

"Spanish mobile account numbers in Spain have remained at about the 14 million mark for a number of years"

With respect..I think your 14m number is way, way too low ....

I would say more like 30m more like

Spanish mobile account numbers in Spain have remained at about the 14 million mark for a number of years

In Q2 2012 VOD Spain lost 639,000 clients in Q2 after it scrapping subsidies on phones ....there was a price war at the time and VOD were losing money on many accounts...

You might think that customers dont stop using their phones in a recession....but..as what happened in Spain...there was a price war and account subsidies....the result to VOD was ...very poor accounts ...

At that time tou could get a top of the range Apple phone for 35 euro a month......yeah,yeah...you see the youngsters and think they pay their account...ahead of buying food..

...but hey...they are so stupid...VOD is paying for that Apple phone....and YOU are when you see the quarterly revenue drops

Hi Poker,

Thanks. Just an ordinary holder here, but one who prefers to try to see both a balanced bull-case & a bear-case for any stock I'm holding. As we know, little is guaranteed in markets either way. Nothing is entirely risk-free, even when much seems priced in. How many foresaw VOD's fall to 131+? Some, but not many.

FTSE 100 is littered with badly beaten-down, top divi-yielders, whose losses far exceed their collective yield going back years. Some will probably never recover to previous highs.

Much agree re a significant risk of further downturn in VOD's key markets in EU. Italy already in recession. Risk of contagion across other EU economies is real. Most economic projections in short-term are bearish & if we did see recession, much also depends on how long it lasts for.

Of course those projections could be wrong. But the thought that VOD's revenues could escape any effect of a deeper recession in EU, does seem wishful thinking.

Question that rarely leave me for long: if VOD is such a great opportunity at these levels & its excellent yield safe, how come large investment funds weren't piling into VOD at recent lows, prompting a steady recovery & consolidation in SP? Instead we see increasing short positions.

Whilst big players also get it badly wrong, they also have ample resources for greater research on a macro-level & they probably don't get it badly wrong nearly as often as ordinary PIs. - Regards.

Understand Jacks point.

Think what lti was trying to put across too was that ok, Vodafone were hit during the recession and would be again but are in a sector where money will keep coming in. So accounts could easily be affected again but nearly everyone has the lastest smartphone and will pay their bill before they've fed their children.

Worked as a contractor at a debt recovery firm for a while and although wasn't on the front line dealing with customers, I sat near to people who were on the phone. They dealt with Vodafone early arrears accounts where customers have around 30 days to pay before their phone is switched off and they are defaulted. Most paid as people can't live without their phones. Family member worked at the job centre for a while and not to sound snobby but people who said they couldn't afford to eat and had to use food banks all had phones, probably all on contract too.

So Vodafone could easily struggle and revenue could fall but people are always going to keep buying phones / paying for contracts. I'm using my Samsung S8 right now.

Pokerchips

I'm not someone who constantly looks at their phone but use it a lot more than I used to. 3G wouldn't be good enough for me, painfully slow when just trying to do visit the bbc website to see the latest footy scores. A decent 4g signal is good enough, having said that, I wouldn't say no to speeds as quick as / quicker than my home WiFi. Kids today are always sharing videos on snapchat, over WhatsApp etc so they will want the latest technology. Depends what you use your phone for. No offence but you must have an old handset if it only supports 3G.

Lti Jack is right You havent grasped what he said May I suggezt that you look at accounts for SPAIN and you will see very clearly on the accounts page....without having to believe Jack what EXACTLY happened in SPAIN during the recession crisis of 2008-2012 The loss of accounts was HUGE Another good point from you Jack You are the lighthouse Jack whilst some of these posters are just boys sailing dinghys on the high seas

longtimeinvestor

"10 times faster download speeds did I read?"

Round about that. 5g will see speeds of up to 400 megabits per second and currently, download speeds for 4g are roughly 40 mbps. Probably a bit more if you get a strong 4g+ connection. Be interesting to see if these speeds actually come to fruition though as they will be miles quicker than your home broadband.

I made a point that using internet linked devices is one of the last things that people will give up.
That statement has nothing to do with when and how severe the next EU downturn will be.
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LTI,

Fair enough. Points taken on board. You may be right. My view stands: if an economically weakening EU enters deeper recession fairly soon, as various financial reports suggest is very conceivable, that seems likely to impact revenues for many stocks, including VOD. In view of latter's debt, that risk seems significant. Though of course it may not happen.

But a pointless argument. My apology for over-reacting in the heat of the moment when posting. Needed to take a time-out. As I say, life's too short.

GL with your investments, as for anyone else.

Dan,

Nice one & thanks. Much agree. I referred to H-hi's comment, "technically own", something only relevant if we have another recession, greater defaults on mortgages, leading to more repossessions.

I'm fine with most posters, most of the time. Rare exceptions: those who question other comments & then readily scorn any historical evidence for it because they only want to present the bullish case, ignoring all risk. BBs are full of that ilk. They just skew the bigger picture &, in worse cases, mislead others. Saw its kind on DEB's BB from months ago. Life's too short.

By the by, something I see often enough on other BBs, which seems germane here too: when stocks are back under the cosh & paper losses mount again, things are more likely to get heated over things that wouldn't ordinarily matter. I know many here are heavily invested. Some are more than a few thousands down. That can add to stress.

Every false dawn for recovery seems even more disappointing. Only human. Little is easy about this game, bar when investments are rising & targets being met. Not many can say that about VOD, bar the few who bought near 10 year lows recently. - Regards. Catch up later.

Well I still like you!! Cant agree with you though on the mortgage thing.. A bank only owns your house ( or part of it) if you default, & I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of uk house mortgages don't default, but good luck anyway & regards.

JD
''I made a point about deeper recessionary risks in EU & how they might affect VOD. You dismissed it''

I made a point that using internet linked devices is one of the last things that people will give up.
That statement has nothing to do with when and how severe the next EU downturn will be.

LTI,

You're behaving like an idiot. I made a point about deeper recessionary risks in EU & how they might affect VOD. You dismissed it. I gave you evidence of what how a smaller downturn in EU impacted VOD a few years ago. You dismissed that too with your bullish c-rap. Don't post to me again or is that too difficult to understand?

Better still, on ignore you go. Filtered, GL & Goodbye! ;o).

JD
'' Kindly don't bother wasting my time again''

I made a comment.
I did not ask you a question.
Hope I don't have to waste my time correcting you again

LTI,

Sorry I bothered. You're obviously typical of those who ignore anything you don't like. Kindly don't bother wasting my time again. Cheers.

"This is a great - SOLID - company with great fundamentals and....."

Please can you highlight some of the "great" fundermentals as I can only see some that I would describe as average. Maybe I have missed them or we use the term much differently.

PC
I like you do not need faster speeds due to what I use the internet for.
For many others faster speeds will be welcome

JD
Thanks for that link showing a 3.5% revenue drop in a 3 month period from 6 years ago
''due to ongoing economic and regulatory pressures and increased competitive intensity within some markets".

Very relevant (NOT).

''think most will look to get 5g technology rather than put up with 4g as the speed difference will be pretty significant''

10 times faster download speeds did I read?

I am a bit 20th Centuryon all this downlaod speed business...I have 3g on my phone and never have any issues at all

My download speed seems to be fine ....

What am I going to being doing that will need it to be 10x faster ?

Just asking

Giving up using internet connected devices is one of the last things that people will give up.
For some it would be like having an arm amputated
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LTI,

With respect, this is the type of bullish, bias that BBs are full of, but as often, it has no evidence. In fact, it goes against past evidence. When EU saw a sharp downturn in 2013, VOD were very much impacted. - GL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23371747

...only works if you are right next to a transceiver and there are no leaves or insects in the way...what a waste of resource when there are more pressing issues for the planet. Moreover it's more debt depressing the sp.

AW
''think most will look to get 5g technology rather than put up with 4g as the speed difference will be pretty significant''

10 times faster download speeds did I read?

JD
'EU maybe headed for recession. Latter would put more pressure on revenues. '

Giving up using internet connected devices is one of the last things that people will give up.
For some it would be like having an arm amputated

Hi Dan,

VOD? Seems a misread there, Dan. I don’t disagree with H-hi's view that banks “technically own” most private UK homes at least until most mortgages are paid up. Ditto across other nations. Hence the severe consequences of the sub-prime collapse in US in 2008 & the contagion that followed throughout much of the global financial system, not least in UK

Hardly risk-free though. Many banks have never recovered their horrendous losses since 2008’s collapse. At anytime, for e. recession, many of those mortgages can turn toxic, becoming impairments or bad debt. Little is a simple as it's sometimes made out to be. - Regards.