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had to check the graph to see the last time we were at these levels and that was back in nov 1997!
With the stock price at this level,why continue to pay a divi?
Definite signs, though maybe still not quite there. Today’s close at 126 at least only slightly down on yesterday’s, plus on significantly lower volume than seen past 2 days, though still well above average. Today’s volume over 125m. Past 2 days were over 168m & 181m respectively (source ADVFN), indicating significant reductions from larger funds.
In perspective, VOD’s average 1-year daily volume about 84m. Once bigger holders exhaust their selling, there’s a reasonable chance we’ll finally find support. So maybe not far off & one can only hope so! - Regards.
As far as I can deduce, the sp has reached the bottom or thereabouts. The historic 10-year low is 113.2p, although the sp may well have gone lower intra-day at that time. Consequently, we may yet be presented with another surprise, although it is now looking less likely than at any time over the last three trading days.
The 10-year high is a shade above 250p, so that the share price has fallen by 50% since the last time it was double its current price nearly four years ago. Since January 2018, the share price has fallen steadily with pullbacks along the way from 237p to its current value.
This was never a company which would make common or garden retail investors like myself rich, although the progressive generous dividend seemed to suggest that it was a good share to hold as part of an income portfolio. I never accepted that argument because of the steady core capital depreciation as the share price declined.
I have always managed to come away with a small profit c. 5-8% from each successive “punt” with Vodafone, and I believe that it is currently possible to do the same. I have read and re-read the board’s recent information to investors, as well as a cross-section of recent opinions from financial journalists and elsewhere. The Vodafone market price pre-results steadied at c.141-144p; IMHO, now that there has been a little time to assess the factors affecting the share price, including the dividend cut, I am expecting a gradual rise to c. 146-150p, although I wouldn’t expect it to happen too soon. I was wrong about my pre-results expectations. I expected a fall to the mid 130s in the event of a dividend cut followed by a rise to the low to mid 140s. As that didn’t happen, I have revised my expectations. The lowered dividend is more than acceptable if the share price rises to pre-results levels. The board’s plans show that Vodafone has a very complex structure with a large number of factors and possible headwinds affecting future revenue streams, and growth. Fellow contributors on this board have discussed most of these in detail. It is therefore impossible at the present time to deduce as to how much the share price can recover in the future, and the time scale involved. I have set myself a 160p sell price target yielding a 14% profit on my current investment. This may not be realistically achievable in the foreseeable future and I may well settle for less. The brokers’ analysts have mostly stood their ground, following the events of the last few days, apart from Numis, who are reassessing their previous position. Numis were much quicker to twice reiterate a buy rating for BT Group, who have suffered a similar fate to Vodafone since their results announcement - with their dividend kept intact.
I was sorry to read that a fellow contributor to this board has been extremely upset by the decline in Vodafone’s share price. Life is too precious to allow ephemeral share price movements to affect one’s quality of life. IMHO a recovery will foll
Trump backing off EU car tariffs....should ease concerns and keep EU economy confidence ticking up...would haven been a disaster for Germany
Wow whats that - in the red - never cant believe that we are never in the red !!!!!! - oh sorry we are always finishing in the red.
Well the divi cut went down well then. Everything this company has done has turned into a disaster. India. Verizo etc. Don't make same mistake with Liberty. You Owe us big time Read.
No it doesn't function like that. It's net debt after various oddball deductions and additions.
- Let's assume you mean £30b higher and nothing to show for it? (In real life you'd have bought another Liberty deal surely?)
You racked up that additional debt paying and paying say dividends that weren't covered by earnings. So you have no assets or gained no acquisitions or whatever. You went out spent an additional £30b get home open your carrier bag
- and it's empty!
So you look in the mirror and say damn knew I should have gone easy downing those expensive Costa latte coffee's. How am I going to tell the wife I've spent all that on my credit card and have nothing to show for it?
Because it's NET debt that it calculates not gross debt. But anyway, if your example held true the EV would show up as less than the MCap of £34b.
And there are shares where the EV is lower than the MCap value.
But as said, I rarely pay it any attention. Because the SP is controlled by emotion or as posh people like to call it - market sentiment - Not the EV metric.
But offer a sheer robbery pittance to acquire VOD and things like NAV and EV values would be thrown in your face with a derisory taunt of:
Try again sunshine, but look in your wallet first, big boy.
my2penneth, you don't need to name names, it's obvious. Often the rats don't post for ages, then boom.
Does that mean if vod's net deb't was 30 billion higher that it is now, it's enterprise value would be 91 billion. If so, why would a fair takeover price be closer to that value & not the market cap? Why would anybody taking over vod pay for a deb't?
The "loss" was mainly down to a write off in India ...a big one off.
I doubt a takeover is imminent, but if things carry on in this vain, it's a good possibility imo. As for ratio, or etc etc, not sure I fully understand. But when the vultures circle video, it may not be pretty, that's what history as shown me. As for nick read, I feel slightly sad for him as he's only been in the c e o position for a short period. Good bean counter, but I feel it's a bit like Olly Gunnar at man it's, totally out of his depth, but he never caused any of the problems he's encountered.
plus a 29 eurocent drop in value per share means v soon it will be trading at the £1 mark
from yesterdays RNS
Basic loss per share was 29.05 eurocents, compared to earnings per share of 8.78 eurocents for the year ended 31 March 2018.
vod enterprise value is 61billion
and when you think almost 20 years ago just for the purchase of mannesman VOD paid twice the amount of enterprise value ( probably more now in real terms)
it goes to show how much it has slumped over the past few years
Here's the textbook explanation which is at least 10 pages shorter than would be mine :)
Enterprise Value (EV) represents Market Capitalization plus Net Debt, and is a truer reflection of the actual size of a company than Market Cap. More specifically Net Debt includes Total Debt, Minority Interest and Preferred Stock minus Cash and Short Term Investments.
This Enterprise Value is based on the latest available figures for Debt & Cash, i.e. interim figures if these have been published since the annuals.
The EV figure I have quoted is still not updated to incorporate the latest trading results. I can post them when that's done given time in next day or so. It's something I never usually refer to and never use as a decider in buying /selling. It's just background paper noise to add to total knowledge base in researching a share.
A very very slim to bu gg er all chance of a T/O. If people really though that a takeover was on the cards, the share price wouldn't be where it is.
When you say the vod enterprise value is 61billion, is that after paying off all it's deb'ts?
Just bought in to average down. It might go lower but - who knows. Hopefully thinking a little bit more ahead than 2 minutes.
I note one name below ( I won't say who -but a poster on another board : "The Lemon Fool") that I know to have sold his shares in VOD and I guess is now deramping - I wonder if he will eventually buy back in?
EV is 79%+ more than the current MCap and not 90% as I posted from my non-spilt coffee hand.
Still mega higher though.
But that's on paper and the market is the market and when sentiment rules does it take notice of paper evaluations?
PS to Char - If you were guesstimating the value on say PE ratios then VOD's forward PE ratio is a full 3 points lower than it's industry average at PE13.9 (Industry fwd avg is PE16.9) so I can stop spilling my coffee a little at your price range suggestion.
It was only late last year that I posted that VOD was expensive on PE ratios alone and needed to fall to circs 141/v high 130's just to be inline with industry averages.
Well it did that and carried well past into what now could be termed value hunters territory.
So am I a buyer? No I'm not - due to other issues but save those opinions of mine for another time.
I fully support Longish's post early morn yesterday that the CEO will be replaced sooner rather than later.
Not a hope.....
Not from China and it is highly unlikely the EU would let a US buyer take over VOD
...and an Asda/JS type deal with someone like Orange or Telefonica would be a non starter
When all else fails come up with a takeover theory. BT phone Vodafone!
Come on Char at least do some research to back up your theory of a takeover:)
Spilt my coffee laughing at your:
"...£1 60 to £1 80, only a guess ..."
Hee Hee, damn right that's a wild guess LOL! Geezalou!
Do you know what the EV metric (Enterprise Value) is for VOD against it's current MCap of £34b?
- It's showing as £61b!!!!
That means to a scrap merchant it's worth 90%+ more than the market values the SP at.
I'll leave you to calculate adding 90%+ more to the current SP is of circa 125p and realise how much you'd be giving away for free at today's prices. I'm not disputing your belief of a takeover only the value you're prepared to hand VOD over for. Start at 90% more and see which interested party would bid higher to win the prize.
Most takeovers occurs towards the top of the market though.
This now looks a likely takeover target, imo. There's lots of positives to Vodafone + the vultures will circle overhead. Thing is what price will they offer. £1 60 to £1 80, only a guess , but no doubt vid board would say it's in the best interest of the small shareholders. Yeah right. Perhaps the bad news is out & in time the turbulent waters will calm + vid will run up. But been saying it will get better as never actually been the case. Telecoms is a very competitive market + all providers have cut their clothes accordingly. When I owned Sainsbury's + Tesco shares people said on these boards , people have to eat. Yes but not at those two, as Aldi & Lidl, gobbled up their clients. Same now with telecoms. I for one feel sorry for everyone who's holding at high price & seeing their investment fall. I hope it turns asap for you all.
Good Luck Peeps.