The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Stupmy. Unless you know better than others, you don't have an edge. They have the edge. Not rocket science, just common sense. ("althought I bought the book as ai''m a reader). KISS".) Sorry I can't make any sense from that comment, but good luck mate with your reocket(sic) science, you need it!
robleo, the 'lot of is the basic mistake' i'm doing fine. i'm not getting rich overnight, but every year, i'm getting a bit more and that bit more is starting to add up. i'm not a **** or buster. i try to avoid the stories/aim. i just go boring, boring, boring and shave a bit.
i get it that trusting good fund manageres can give a good profit. i just like to be keep it all down to me to be honest. hbr is an example (that looks good, not all do). i enter and exit based on charsts and it keeps bobbing about, up an down and each time i make money. if you held in a fund, you'd take the divis, but make nothing int growth. others, not so pretty so not interested in bull****. i'm heavily exposed to enq and it's way off for the moment.
Daniel, I don't think I know any better than anyone else. That's my edge! Utter simplicity. I'm no genious, don't need reocket science (althought I bought the book as ai"m a reader). KISS
Stupmy, i do hope you are making a lot of profit from that as it seems like a lot of work and very high risk
For myself I'm going in the opposite direction moving more back into funds all of my 8 funds are in profit and most have returned around 50% over the last 5 years and that's taking into account they grew by 60% from 2018 to jan 2022 and have currently dropped back by 10% making it around 50% gain in 5 years
my shares on the other hand are all currently in loss, getting a 7-8 or 9% dividend sounds very appealing but if your losing a similar amount or more on your capital its not so great, don't intend selling all my shares just reducing the amount when they come back to a sellable price, but everyone's circumstances are different
If I lose money, I never blame anybody but myself. You are almost certain to lose though if you bet with bookmakers, spread, or sp, that is how they make money. They rely on punters who think they know better than others. By the way, in play, & cash in, has the highest profit for bookmakers. Why do you think you know better than anybody else?
Daniel, this is going to sound really daft now. 'I'm not a gambler' (of course I am). I have a virtual friend! Right there you're laughing at me, that I traded with over many years that paid his mortgage by trading. Subsequently stopped and moved to the horses. He worked with some sites that he shared with me and was still making money. But he quickly got banned from all bookies in his area because he was 'not behaving like an ordinary punter', it's not an exact quote, but it's what he told me and I knew him well in enough over many years to believe what he was telling me. Not my cup of tea, know nothing about horses and on the dogs I watch for one to take dump and bet on it as it's a bit lighter and has clearer focus on the job at hand. But I think you're mixing things up. Having said that if you were / are a bookie, you know about risk, laying off and daft punters. So I'm in no way belittling your knowledge experience. Often the experience of dealing in this area is more important than real knowledge to be honest.
You're still not right daniel in my view. I should add that I get charged every night for my holdings that's profit to the middle man as are the spades (spread/mismatch to the market), but I really think you're wrong. If you bet on a horse race, you put your bet down before the race, at the end of the race you either get a win or you lose the lot. This whole process allows you to watch the race, the runners and jumpers, the fillys and the muts and you can bet and alter your bet at any time during the race. What's not to like? If you lose over time, it's hard to see how you can blame anyone other than yourself. That's my view at least.
Stupmy. Thank you for your reply, but as you say, they are tilting the market away from you, so in the long run you are almost certain to lose. I have spent most of my life involved in gambling of one sought or another,working as a bookie & in other ways. You the punter on average will lose. Investing directly in shares is completely different. Still very risky, but (with the exception of vod perhaps) You have a very good chance of making money. Good luck mate, you need it.
Also daniel, that's not accurate to say I'm betting against Ig. They are making their money on the spread and the fact their prices are not the true market prices. They are almost guaranteed to win because they're sell the spades to the speculators. They also win on small positions when the position goes bad and Ig have not protected it by buying/selling directly in the market. I agree they should consistently win (they don't always and bookies do to the wall sometimes), but mostly I'm not betting against them, I'm accepting that they tilt the odds a little against me. I have to accept that as it's how I get access to the market.
Daniel, I've seen the stats, what you quote isn't accurate, but it's ball park. For sure, not every trade works so I'm currently nicely down having made a mistake on the treasuries. I'm still in and will continue to trade around that and I'll either come out smelling of roses or mossie-ridden ditchwater, that's still to see.
For VOD i tried to be too clever there. I took a profit, obviously that's good, but they buyers didn't have the power to move the SP up really so the SP has now almost hit my first target area of 75p. You win some you lose some. I've been waiting for other trades which are now looking attractive or at least worth paying attention too. They'll either work or they won't.
Desperate Dan, I has been shorting Consolidated Spats since 1929 and im 25× my original stake.
I
Stupmy. About 90% of spread betters on the stock market lose. Also about 90% of those losers pretend they are winning due to pride. Of course if you are in the 10% bracket then that is good, but it sounds like you loseing, due to your 20year treasuries. good luck though, but at end of the day ,you are betting against boormakers (i.g.) index, who always win in the long run.
Cheers roofer, i don't think it's something i would be interested in but will take a look anyway
thanks
Robleo .... IG have a demo practice acc what you can open (free), if your curious, they give you a large amount to play about on , there is alot more to it , as you say ....atb
Some buyers appear to be around so I've taken my profit and will look to re-enter short if we rise. For the moment I'm out. I don't need much of a rise to make it worthwhile as the spread on VOD is good. I still think we'll see 75 or 71 and am still looking to short, but am out for the moment.
That was kind of what I was saying when I responded to your initial post. It isn't and it takes work and after that conviction in your decisions. Whatever you do you can lose money and you'll not be right all the time. And yes, of course I make bad decisions. If there was a rule that 10% of the time gave you a good decision, then you'd be like a computer making money hand over fist. There isn't, you just have to look at lot's of angles and decide what's more likely and what's less likely and think about time. E.g. you say VOD is low, I agree, that means over time it's more likely to rise than fall. It means if you enter today and it falls away, there's a good chance that you'll see 76 p again in the future and you'll not have lost and you'll get your divis. But, it's unlikely that an out of hours news event will happen between today and tomorrow, so since it's more likely that there will not be a news event then I can short in the hope of seeing 75 and then maybe 71p. If there's a news event we could see 100 tomorrow and I'll lose 23 p or so. All risk as no-one can see into the future. Anyone who talks confidently about tomorrow is someone to be cautious about.
Stumpy, thanks for the reply, the problem is nothing is obvious is it, especially where vod is concerned as its trading at a very low price at the moment and at some point the tide will change direction, if only we knew when we could all get very rich, you mentioned 2 you made money on shorting but I expect there may also be some you haven't yet mentioned that you have lost on
It's not easy is it
But good luck
I don't think I said that robleo, I try both short and long depending on the market and what I think about it. For the moment I'm in profit short on Voda, I've been making good money short on US500 and FTSE recently but am out for the moment. I try to adapt what I'm doing to what seems to be happening. I think I was just suggesting that if you believe it's obvious that all markets are dropping, short them and you'll make money if you're right.
Stumpy, so are you making good profits from shorting, more than you would make from buying and holding medium term
And It will be helpful to everyone if you can be honest with us about it
Thanks
Sorry, 2nd part of your message. Good question and for most the answer will be trite. Look back over the chart (I favour daily/and 2h). Track every gap and see what happens to them over time. There's a gap to 71, the price on VOD had increased recently but over time it's a very slow mover I figured what has happened every time up until now will happen again. No reason to suddenly believe 'it will be different this time'. Odds are in my favour, but timing is very difficult. 75 looks very likely, spread is very tight so small moves are enough to give profit, 71 remains possible.
I'm with Ig also and have come across what you're talking about. I've not been forced out of positions, but I've had positions move to 'close only'. Not sure if that's the same as you're saying or you were really forced to close. I deal almost exclusively with FTSE 250 so mostly reasonably liquid shares (VOD Is very liquid) that are not likely to move to 'close only' status. It is annoying when a you are no longer able to 'open and close' positions as it robs you of an awful lot of flexibility in you're work. Yes, for leveraged trading I'm with IG. I did try others but outages meant I was unable to react a bit too often when I wanted to react.
Stup
How do you short please? I used ig index a few years back both for short and long u.
The long position I paid much more than the margin so i couldn't be stopped out, the share price dropped (not a problem along the way) i g index then said they wouldn't deal with that share any more and it would be forcibly sold.
what was your reasoning for vod going down? I added over last month and got it wrong, interested how you got it right. Its hard to sell when there is a rising trend! I hope I haven't got uranium wrong as well, been buying last weeks in a rising trend that's now broken!!
Dan, I'm not reading GS's comments in general, but I am short 20 yr treasuries and I am losing. So something there rang a bell. I'm interested in any view that might explain why my own is 'a bit sh i t'.
If you know it's all going down robleo, short it and you'll still make money every time you're right. I didn't wait for the whole market to turn down, to start shorting. I took a view on Voda. It'll be right or wrong, but it's backed with my money.
Dan, i really don't give a dam about gutter or jax saying the share price is going down every day as we all know it's not going to make the slightest bit of difference to the share price, just laugh it off and take the micky that helps, I'm sure everyone here has already worked out that they are total nutcases
the reality is though they maybe right, my thoughts are things might get worse before they can get better and we could see more businesses folding as inflation interest rates energy costs etc, will be forcing people to make cut backs
we are definitely in need of something good to turn things around
but they are just my thoughts, who knows what will happen next after the events over the last few years
hopefully you guys disagree with me and there's a bull market on the way, that would be nice
anyway be happy and good luck