Vodafone Share Chat (VOD)

Jack, OFAH

"Best of luck to you both.....put it all behind you and look forward to the summer.
=============================================================
Sorry that you had to take the loss. OFAHs right, you do feel better and its good for the soul to be clear of it. Having experienced the same a few times over the years and to date, the normal reaction is shock and it moves in waves. Important to recognise that before attempting recovery (discipline as you say is a good example) otherwise it can amplify your risk preference and compound losses/ errors in strategy ..!!

I am continuing to hold my VOD shares, watching the SP and looking forward to post Liberty...

GLA

In case many of you just don't get my point, it is this. Ok. so call me old school, but I believe that a company like vod should have an sp that reflects it's value, I.E. profits etc, not trends in buy/sell, graphs, etc. Ok so that may be the sad case, but it is very dangerous. At it's extreme we will have companies that trade shares on nothing to do with there true value but just on graphs. Just look at crypto coin markets. Do we really want crypto vod. I know professional investors use these guides, but if you use them, you are undermining the whole point of stock market investment, unless of course you really think you can beat these guys, because if you do, you are kidding yourselves.

Hi. Poker, but the only why you can learn not to loose, is not to invest. Simple.. It is impossible to make money on the stock market, without a risk of losing.

Jack, OFAH

"Best of luck to you both.....put it all behind you and look forward to the summer.

I personally realised that you dont really learn to win at this game until you fully learn how not to lose....and that part is what we all have actually learnt from in this unexpected severe downturn in the Telecoms. "
=================================================================================
Hi Poker,

Thanks also. Sound advice, as for the rest of your comment. Live & learn, hopefully. Or face likely financial catastrophe with SBs. No hiding place in that domain as learning curve is steeper & errors tend to be punished severely if self-discipline lacking, or if there's too much ego & pride. That too has ben an issue in not taking losses sooner once key support levels fell.

FWIW, though it’s poor compensation that doesn’t even nearly cover my losses in VOD, I’ve taken hundreds of points profit from UKX since March, as posted on ii’s UKX BB. Thus, in future, I’ll focus all leverage trades there. It gives me at least a chance. UKX also pays weekly dividends. Occasionally over 20 pts.

I also think a break is due for me once I've deleveraged from a couple more stocks. One particularly vulnerable to heightened risks of a hard Brexit. But those hits combined will be much less than here.

Then it'll be just real shares held in various divi-paying stocks, with occasional trades & UKX for SBs.

But whatever happens with me, I know many others have suffered badly here, some holding shares from higher up than my 198+ & 175+. Whatever more I decide later, I sincerely hope all others get to see a VG outcome here over time. - Regards.

Catch all later.

"Hi Jack, sorry to hear about your big hit. What I don't get though is why anybody bets on the sp, spread bets, c.f.d's etc when the odds are stacked against you."
========================================================
Hello Dan,

Thanks & ditto for your other comments. Good question. Tellingly, I’ve never advised anyone to take up SBs, having been asked a few times by others. I always say, if I had my time back, no question I’d stick to real shares. However, having put a decent 5-figure sum into it previously & now well down, I’m trading to get most of it back.

Also a bad move on my part not setting stop losses here, missing exit opportunities when damage would've been far less, as well as banking on dividends being safe for long enough to cover holding costs until better recovery. Foolish to assume anything in this business.

Indeed, relatively few are profitable with leverage. Maybe 10%, or slightly more. Losses & gains snowball fast. Patently, I’m not one of those profitable. Eventually, I’ll pack it in for said reasons, whether I get my money back or blow my account. I guess I also enjoy the challenge of that, despite some bitter disappointments. But all losses 100% my fault.

Re claims that FCF ensuring divi was safe: indeed, that line was parroted on various VOD BBs, not just here Also on ADVFN & ii. Many times! Any dissenters were usually lone voices, often drowned out by the majority with accusations of scaremongering. But such is the nature of most BBs, not just VOD's. Bulls tend to be more present. - Regards.

Board seems very bearish. Time to be buying

Jack, OFAH

Best of luck to you both.....put it all behind you and look forward to the summer.

I personally realised that you dont really learn to win at this game until you fully learn how not to lose....and that part is what we all have actually learnt from in this unexpected severe downturn in the Telecoms.

Take the learning and the experience and put it all to good use and never give up .... success in life really does come from having learnt from the mishaps and the mistakes

Good luck

Jack, Interesting to see your comment about many thinking free cash flow, meaning the divi was safe. I have always been very positive about the vod sp, but have always questioned that free cash flow means the divi is safe. I was wrong with my bullish predictions for the vod sp, so how about all you lot, who banged on about free cash flow, admitting you were wrong??

Sorry. to cont' I know I have lost, but I have very small overheads to pay holding a share, so I have just got it wrong, but leveraged, is just like betting against a bookmaker, & unless you know more than everybody else(which I don't), you will lose. The bookie always wins. But good good luck anyway, I always find your posts very informative.

Hi Jack, sorry to hear about your big hit. What I don't get though is why anybody bets on the sp, spread bets, c.f.d's etc when the odds are stacked against you.

Hi O.F.A.H. You probably did the right thing bailing out, we all have to admit defeat at some stage. Me I guess I am stubborn enough to hold on. I guess I am lucky in that, I don't have to work to earn a living (retired), but I thought your comment about having to go back to work, was ironically funny. (Only Fools And Horses). Good luck anyway. Of course there are some on here that think, if you admit you are losing money, you are not allowed to comment on this forum. We can all pretend we are winners, it take,s far more courage to admit to being a loser, but you can live to fight another day.

Hi OFAH,

Thanks! Good to hear from you & I hope you're keeping well. Maybe you're prospering elsewhere since you exited this mess? I sincerely hope so!

Indeed, definitely the right call for me in view of the heightened risks ahead if VOD's next update disappoints markets again. Couple more leveraged hits due elsewhere quite soon. Deserve all I got for not exiting at circa 170 in December as, however briefly, I actually considered it at the time.

Like you, I'll also be posting less in future as I'll be focused elsewhere. Will pop in here to catch up with posters comments, links, germane news items, etc. Will give the VOD shares I have left a little longer as at least those incur no holding costs. - All the best!

Well done Jack, a tough move but the right one I feel.

I felt much better once I closed all my losses down. Live to fight another day.

For transparency's sake: Closed all 5 leveraged long positions in VOD at 133.30. These were from 214+ to 189+, as posted live on ii's VOD BB. Huge hit taken, though whilst first entry was over £20 a point, thankfully they dwindled to £5.

Two tranches of real shares left at 198.32 & 175.85. These to be reviewed after taking more dividends.

Reasons: seems little hope of huge recovery anytime soon. Certainly not this year. Also, since 40.02% divi-cut announced 14th May, SB holding costs no longer covered. This mess now costs me net loss every week I hold.

Key questions I asked: how may markets react if VOD’s next update sees more falling revenues & earnings, mindful that debt will rise? What chance of VOD turning results around soon? Where’s the future growth coming from? VOD have been losing millions of customers, especially in EMs like India.

If no turnaround, whilst by no means 100% certain, IMO, we may see new 10 year closing lows, so below 123.32 from late May, intraday 122.22.

Looking ahead, this ought to recover over a longer timeframe. Just hard to be bullish now.

Competition in this field rising, lowering customer prices. Key markets in EU facing downturns. 5G uptake expected to be slow. All reports I’ve read say that even by 2023, over 70% of smartphones will be 4G due to high 5G running costs. VOD’s debt expected to rise further.

So too much risk for me & never again will I buy into stocks that require tens of billions expenditure just to upgrade technology, whilst seeing little to zero net benefit to holders. For all the past gains made here, a huge error hanging on & fully deserved losses.

By the by, so much for all the majority claims on all VOD BBs that divi was safe as FCF covered it. Not a dig at any individuals, but a cautionary note: most BBs are investor dominated. Confirmation bias runs supreme, without exception.

Dumping this total leveraged mess is the right call for me. Will focus on UKX with SBs. But more deleveraging elsewhere to be done soon. - GLA.

Discounted cash flow is always king. Future is Rosy.

Oh well here we go - looks like we are going to finish down today which is a disappointment with ex div tomorrow - hope i am wrong or we will be back in the 120's

Metamorphosis got out the wrong side of the bed this morning, Calm down! I,m sure trendfreind is capable of defending himself, if he wants to.

Furthermore, you talk about post adding value.
Well, trendfriends post added value but was met with such scorn as this:>"
If you are right with all this mumbo jumbo, then god help us all. Of course if everybody believes in graphs, & trends & act accordingly, then if will happen. ( self proclamation). Sounds like ponzi economics to me. This is a real company, not some crypto nonsense"

All very well for daniel to say that, if he is winning, but he isn't this share has been losing, so to be dismissive about someone's helpful advice is rude.

To then claim that pointing out this flaw is "rubbing salt in wounds" is equally rude.

No you're point is invalid.

You seem to be of the judgement that my post this morning was intended to: "rub salt in the wounds of individuals".

Indeed it is obvious that in both my posts so far today, the intention was to suggest than trading analysis should not be met with the scorn that it received here.

Metamorphosis84.

Thank you for your reply. My comment was not a personal attack - as I have observed, and even been the recipient of, on some bulletin boards. I do not know any contributors on any bulletin boards on a personal level, and unlike some individuals on other boards, I have no intention of causing offence.

My point is a valid one however. Why visit a bulletin board, and rub salt in the wounds of individuals, who by their own admission have made the wrong investment decisions? This does not apply to me on this occasion, but like most contributors here, I have made one or two serious mistakes, and that fact is annoying enough without having to read comments attesting to the fact.

I should add that I do not regard myself as a gatekeeper to this board, as your opening remarks suggest. However, like you, I have the right to comment. On this occasion, I commented that (other than adding to some investors' discomfort - which surely wasn't your intention? ), your comment added little value to this board.

Regards.

Cheers, I'll post as frequently, or infrequently as I like thanks. And I'll post what I like, be it an opinion or something else. With or without your approval buddy.

But seeing as you have decided to launch a personal attack, I'll give you a fact and opinion:

Fact: A contributor here has provided some Trading Analysis.
Opinion: I believe that dismissing this information is arrogant and a foolish mistake to make, especially when you have demonstrated over a long period of time to be misjudging entry points and have lost capital in a failing share.

Oh and one last thing, are you really stupid enough to think that any contributor to a BB has the ability to ramp or deramp a listed company with an mcap of 35bn?

Ciao for now.

Metamorphosis84.

Your last de-ramping post was issued around 5 weeks ago. Why bother? My contributions here are somewhat bland; sadly yours add nothing whatsoever to this bulletin board. Should you contribute some facts to justify your opinion, I will thank you for the information. Merely re-stating an opinion on an infrequent basis is a pointless activity.

Trendfriend's posts are very useful to me & others. As is all well-founded TA. Not that I follow TA as gospel, but is still has its value. For L/T holders from a fundamentals side, I can see why they feel differently. But no need to knock it.

Off for a long walk & will post again later. - GLA.

Maybe trendfriend is offering some helpful analysis, the sort of charting that might have saved you from losing so much cash buying this dog of a share, had you taken it?

In all probability you are probably right :-). Still, I currently think the dynamics have changed and are 'more curvilinear' to the upside. With SP and market uncertain where next, we could gap up..

We have been discussing 131 support in earlier posts. Have to admit, I was pleasantly surprised to see 134 today and genuinely pleased for everyone suffering from higher entry points.