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Interesting week for me. I tracked Velos insights on candles as a technical indicator. I can see the merits, but this week the clunk and click of debt market tenders and new issues seemed to me to dominate the US and EU SP technical patterns leaving Vod with $1Bn incremental debt for 'corporate purposes'. I can only assume this debt is routing as per the debt programme pending Liberty clearance ie incremental cashflows that add to net present value and the SP?
In the meantime a hold.
Holding became more exciting this week with the emergence of Libra, Facebooks crypto currency now challenging the global monetary system. If successful, 27 partners, including Vodafone, would take some control of monetary policy from central banks. Of course, how that plays out globally, regionally and locally is now (urgently..) being assessed by a G7 working group in conjunction with the IMF and central banks. Democratisation and decentralisation of centuries old institutions and the emergence of multinational corporations, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank....time will tell. Certainly a long term investment pregnant with possibilities!! You can pick up an article in the Weekend FT Opinion if you want to read more on this.
No surprise BB is seeing widespread disappointment here & folk letting off steam. Falling SPs are stressful for many holders. My remaining shares in VOD currently showing my biggest paper losses. Looking ahead, as long as VOD's SP stuck in tight range, the pressure likely to mount in weeks ahead. Especially if 123+ support is re-tested & falls. So much at stake on VOD's next update with a turnaround so soon seeming a very big ask.
Whilst nothing is 100% guaranteed, another drop in revenues & there's little question, IMO, of seeing new 10 year lows. Just realism.
By the by, wise to have sold out of IQE when you did 2months ago. No doubt IQE's reduced revenue forecasts yesterday was a shock, fuelling a huge exit. The reasons for it (US restrictions on Huawei, also hitting various chain supplies) may also concentrate minds on various uncontrollable macro-factors challenges across the sector, which may even impede the speed of take-up of 5G.
I post my live trades on ii's BB. Been busy with UKX. Also got lucky yesterday with IQE. Bought shares at 44.85, sold 53.01. That despite a technical gap left there from the previous close at 71.65. Preferred to book quick gains than risk a reversal due to the volatility with that stock. I still have smaller SB longs underwater in IQE.
Still hanging on here with my 198+ & 175+ share tranches as I'm not selling in 120s. Too much of a hit. But now bracing myself for another test of 123+, which is VOD's 10-year closing low from 23rd May. - Regards & GLA.
No need to apologise for mentioning another equity up on here - My fault. I'm the culprit that initated it :)
Markets are closed. It's the weekend; so what the hell :)
I'm amazed and shocked for you with that £25K profit (Thought I was the bees knees with near £15k Profit on GVC over 5 years or so - until I read that). Amazed and very pleased to congratulate you - well done mate! Well done!!!
And shocked in the same breath.
Shocked as in - WTF were you thinking??? It was odds on to go t!ts up.
It's a high risk, volatile, low expectation share, with the emphasis all weighted on high risk, so I would have expected someone like you to have placed a modest to balanced stake on it - but to make £25K profit - well I'm left speechless.
You high risk taker you! You high roller you! You Las Vegas gambler you! You pulled off the heist of year!!!
Go on tell me, shame the devil and own up - you go on bungee jumps over death defying gorges in the far east when on holidays, don't you?
Respect man. Respect. You pulled it off whilst dead bodies lie all around you.
(No, not holiday makers at the foot of the gorge - IQE holders :)
Many thanks for those kind words. I have enjoyed reading your posts, in no small part because you are a patient and courageous investor. Many would have reduced their holding, and looked to recover their losses elsewhere. As things stand they are “paper” losses, as is my VOD holding at present.
I have only been invested for a short time during my current VOD cycle, and intend to hold until, hopefully, the share price is well ahead of my entry point. I may be around for a while yet. As Jack D regularly stated, I hope that the share price will pick up later this year when we are through the current headwinds (perhaps we should call them trade winds); the first tests will be the resolution of the proposed LG European assets acquisitions which will lead us into the end of the protracted ex-div period in early August.
Best wishes to you danielh, you said previously that you are heavily invested in Vodafone and I hope that it will; eventually provide you with your targeted profit.
Hi Velo. I sold out of IQE about two months ago. I struggled for most of the year, through holding my stock during several rises, and subsequent fallbacks. At one time, I was holding 100,000 shares at around 18p per share down. Finally, I found my rhythm, and after three relatively successful Buy - Sell cycles, I walked with a net profit of around 25,000 pounds. Had I been a more patient investor, the profit would have been considerably higher.
Earlier today, I received the IQE statement, by e-mail before any trading commenced. I visited my broker’s site a little later to find that the share price had fallen to around 43-44p. Being a very cautious nowadays, I bought 50,000 shares in tranches averaging around 44.5 a share. I placed a sell order for 50p, and later discovered that the stock was sold at around 10.25 a.m. The result was a small profit, which would have been greater a few years ago when I would have bought probably double the number, and held for longer. After a few hits in early 2018, notably with CPI, I am more cautious nowadays.
I expected the IQE share price to rise to the low 50s and fall back later, due to the inevitable shorting that this particular share regularly suffers. The closing price surprised me. Sadly, I do not have too much of an appetite for risk nowadays, but will continue to monitor the share price.
All the best Velo; apologies to all VOD investors for discussing another equity on this board. I promise to contribute any relevant new VOD information when I receive it.
And i know i spelt Moron wrong - i think its a pretty pathetic word to use to call somebody
TLWilliams.. Thank you for your high quality post, the sad answer however is, this site has been hijacked by an infantile bunch of moaning idiots. I don't pretend to contribute high quality info, but come on this site to learn from those that do, including you perhaps. But unless we can persuade the daily moaning morons to buy a punch bag to vent there frustrations,( often expletive) I suspect the high quality posters won't come back.
Hi TL - You still in IQE? (Haven't seen you or Jack on there for some time - I don't post, only read/ 'lurk' there).
Read their latest profit warning (2nd or 3rd now?) this morning and the subsequent result uoon the SP. Pain!
Not in it, but have followed it in a watchlist for a year or two now.
Whatever happened to the large number of high quality contributions that I read on this board on a daily basis until recently? My best guess is that in the absence of any update, there is little to discuss for the time being. This, together with the fact that the share price has remained confined within a narrow trading range since the ex-dividend date, leaves investors in a temporary limbo. The same is true for other stock - Taylor Wimpey (TW.) for example.
Until we hear more about Vodafone’s proposed takeover of Liberty Global assets in Europe, the current quiescent state is likely to remain. I do not have a great deal of confidence in broker’s ratings but it is mildly reassuring that they are mostly being held at consistent levels - well above the current share price. Let us hope that all Vodafone investors will have something to smile about later this year. For the time being, it looks as though we will need to remain patient with the status quo.
Ah well the end of the week. One tries. Do you want me to submit and accept defeat?
Can I push for asking for just a wee bit longer? No, admit defeat you say? Well I remain defiant and state here and now:
My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius Velo, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered candlestick, husband to a murdered second digit 3. And I will have my vengeance, in this week or the next.
Can I have next week please? :)
Read trying his best to attain 10% divi yield. Failed on SP. Failed to maintain dividend.Don't fail on Liberty.
And there we go another down week - yes venting my anger again and i dont give a **** what people think
Telecons being hit hard today. MM's f off and annoy someone else.
If this doesn't improve significantly soon Read will have a lot of explaining to do at AGM. If he turns up!!!
Because its vodafone and they have no intention of it rising
Anybody know why it's dropping after great broker forecast.
Thinking of selling the lot and putting it on red or black - at least the odds are better and it wont be such slow torture
Kepler gives Vod buy rating rise from 160 to 175. Down we go. Groundhog day again. Getting tedious.
Aah thanks for that Uddinkas. You're a client of theirs. So the inference from those media analysts who're reporting a mood swing against BT is genuine. It's just that I'm not reading it generally.
I do pay a subscription for the cumlative brokers estimates for the future and that still indicates an increase in earnings. I'll stop here as it's not VOD pertinent. But thank you, it has cleared up a qeury I had.
Finish this cuppa off and time to turn in.
You have to be a client of UBS for that research note, so I guess it’s not 100% free.
I take broker notes and research with a pinch of salt, but I prefer reading them as sometimes they shed light on something that you haven’t thought of I.e the cost savings of sharing masts. But all in all, a research from a reputable financial institution has more credibility than someone spewing their tripe on a free bulletin board.
In any case, please do your own research and never invest what you can’t afford to loose.
My personal favourite advice would be to aim for slow financial success rather than get rich quick scheme, as the latter is never good for your peace of mind or your portfolio suffering volatility.
Uddinkas - Out of general curiosity, did you get that UBS research paper for free by sheer chance, or as a paid subscriber to UBS?
I ask because seeing a disturnbing increase in media analysts briefing against BT saying due to analyst downgrading earnings for the current year.
Haven't seen any myself (all my research shows an expected increase - not downgrades), so assumed it was paid subscriptions to Broker's houses. Only thing is all the latest Broker's noes on the BT page have a very high SP forecast for BT so doesn't sound like they're downgrading BT.
It's left me puzzled, so I wonder does it mean they're subscription only, did you pay for the UBS paper on VOD?
Send me your e-mail address and I’ll share the research.
'UBS analysts research'
Do you have a link to the research that can be shared?
No worries if not. thanks for the update
Just re-read UBS analysts research on this share and they are very bullish and that’s excluding the potential masts share that will save them almost 500M per year.
Although the share is down from 52 week high but this is a long term play and is in the growth sector and the coming of 5G and IoT will accelerate the growth and with a nudge from consumers wanting to upgrade who normally don’t to utilise 5G.
Although I’m at a paper loss but don’t hesitate holding this for a long time while picking up the divi while I wait.
'trust has gone'
The new chairman, new brush, liberty clearance etc. Should come good with strong cultural leadership and no ambiguity.