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Fleccy
yes.... tempting...but dull.... lol.... Germany may well get to bottom out this winter with a better year in 2024....but... I still see the market keeping pressure on the CEO to make decisions on Italy and to get her targets achieved....I feel the market will reward VOD ( with rerates) only on performance achievement ( ok some trading going on) , and not give it too much benefit ahead of that.... show us the figures Margherita
Mole, if they drop the dividend then the cash would go toward reducing the Net Debt figure instead and likely feed through to the stock price eventually anyway.
I repeat my first posting 3 years ago, 'the div is not 'safe' if you lose it in capital. Take care and keep it below 1% of your total assets. Not just stocks, all assets.
Folk then were dumping big lots into their SIPP for the safe divi, at 140p.
Poker it's a relatively safe stock with a 10.5% dividend yield. £20k would buy nearly 27,000 shares with a dividend return of around £1000 next February, or £2000 for a full year . You don't get more nimble than that, it's tempting.
The market sees VOD as a slow turning oil tanker.... plenty of more nimble ships out there to invest in and make better returns from
Getting a double hit today from sterling jumping. Who knew Cameron was that popular?
I just had a look back and I can see Beo has already mentioned what I've just shown in the graphs, credit to him for spotting this. I probably read his post but it didn't register at the time.
Then look at Cashflow Vs Working Capital:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=642584807&format=interactive
Has anyone noticed that the Working Capital in the cashflow calculation swings from negative in the First Half Year figures, to positive in the Second Half Year figures, effectively cancelling much of it out in the Full Year figures?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=272204223&format=interactive
Vodafone’s results are a checklist of everything bad about a company. It has swung to a loss-making position, revenue is down, the dividend is not growing and there is negative free cash flow,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“We’ve got the usual rhetoric from the chief executive that the turnaround story is making progress but at the end of the day it’s yet another set of results that remind us how Vodafone has lost its way big time. Work is underway to restructure the group but don’t hold your breath for rapid change.”
The results are old news....old data from a quarter that is now behind them....
the SP will now focus on what it thinks the current quarter will achieve ... and that is related to macro news as well , which is volatile as everyone knows
Market will next want to know what VOD are going to do in Italy ...another very competitive market in which VOD performance isnt good enough
So far they have been able to focus on dealing with Germany and Spain...... Italy next !!
I’m not an accountant by any stretch of the imagination, but it is clear that various people on this board with financial acumen have read the results and are painting very different pictures.
The only current definitive answer is the SP and Mr. Market doesn’t seem too happy. Fundamentals might be current news but SP will always be the King.
Let’s hope the Yanks don’t give this another kicking later.
Some figures are good , some not... Overall mixed.. I think once investors fully digest the news, this should go up.. it hit low of 74.10 so far and now on 75 as I type so I think it should go up from here.
Yes, for the full year. But some people seem to think H1 FCF is 50% of the full year value and therefor implying the dividend isn't covered by free cash flow. Whereas people with half a brain can see the accounts show the FCF doesn't generate cash in a linear way throughout the year.
27Bn shares in issue means the 9c dividend costs 2.4Bn EUR
Free cash flow is at least 3.3Bn EUR
Almost 1Bn EUR spare, to reinvest and pay down debt
Because it will bounce at some stage like all shares do, but at the moment its definitely over priced. More downgrades on the way for sure.
Its all context isn't it. The SP is low because these are the type of results vodafone has been delivering for sometime.
Are the results worse than what is already priced into the SP? Who really knows, but if you can actually read accounts, you can see the loss is driven by one of tax rate of 128% due to tax on disposal of business, on a normal tax rate its still profitable, does the earnings cover the dividend? No but it hasn't for some time so that is priced into the SP. And the FCF reduction appears to be partly cyclical with a negative working capital value that has historically return to £0 by the full year results. all things being equal H2 would £(2)b (H1) + £6.8b working capital (eg +£3.4b for no negative working capital in H2, +£3.4b to take the full year position back to £0 , making £4.8b of FCF vs Dividend of £1.2b. will the company suddenly be worth the SP in H2? Honestly if you can't read accounts then don't abstain from commenting
This share never fails to dissapoint I'm affraid, just wondering how low it can go
Dave. I will ask you again, If this company is ****ed, why would you buy if reaches the 60's.
Folks on here argue with black and white narritive in the accounts.... and use all sorts of their 'own analysis' to counter it. There is no world in which these are good results. A strong sell.
"Vodafone's results are a checklist of everything bad about a company. It has swung to a loss-making position, revenue is down, the dividend is not growing and there is negative free cash flow," AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.
Not quite as simple as that.
Of the £2b of free cash outflow the working capital was negative £2.4b (eg the accounts payable reduced more than the account receivable). It looks to be a cyclical thing to some extent. EG last year H1 the working capital was negative £3.4b but by the full year results it was £0.3b positive, so H2 was £3.7b positive.
If you exclude this timing* issue, then the FCF before dividend would have been £1.4b positive vs £1.2b dividends. So its not the dividends per say that added to the net debt, but the working capital movement of £3.4b, the other cashflow items net off. Its all in the messaging I guess and I would have positioned it was above rather than the way they did.
* Im assuming its just timing as thats what last years accounts indicate. If its not timing then thats a worry as it means we are still paying our suppliers on time but our customers are taking longer to pay us. Which would be a separate worry
Diredct quote: "Net debt increased by ?2.9 billion to ?36.2 billion (?33.4 billion as at 31 March 2023). This was primarily driven by the free cash outflow of ?2.0 billion and equity dividends of ?1.2 billion." I knew I read this. People dont understand how BAD these results are!!!!!!!!!
I posted links to these the other day, but no one seemed interested.
The chart gives a nice picture showing the relationship between entries associated with Free Cash Flow and Net Debt.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive
If you select the cash flow tab (Top Left) in the link below it shows the figures feeding into the chart.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubhtml