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Thanks Roofer.
Amazing how a few glasses of whiskey (or jug) can help you predict the sp!
More optimistic about next week though. Hoping for a Santa rally.
I'll go for 74.3
Cheers
Pickedpeck: mainly a VOD problem in my view.
Lots of debt, CEO and strategic plans not inspiring.
Poor customer service as per my own experience on and off over many years.
Having said that, possibly a very good buy at this level. New CEO and/or demonstrated real change/improvement very much needed!
Ive seen many posts over the years saying vod divi nothing to do with share price but completely sustainable because......
Would one of the experts care to explain.
Its cayse the share price has fallen that the divi... pence as percentage of share price seems high. If vod was valued at 130 div would be 5.5 pc for example.
So if in vod for income, and if never sell, you are getting 10pc. So everything depends on divi being kept at this level.
You dont even need a rising divi as 10pc is a return plus inflation beat all in one.
It seems to beat recommended funds as well, as cty, 3 or 4pc divi and capital price lower than many years ago.
Vod closing Sp 71.67p
Newsid 71.5p winner
KiwiTwo 75.9p
Doyen Dan 74.92p
Exil 73p
FredRubble 69.69p
XxxAccount 72.50p
SteveBT 71.94p
Paul30 76p
Tars 83.14p
Roofer 72.45p
Atb
I agree with everything you've said, but VOD is already listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker NASDAQ: VOD.
There are a lot of people slating Vodafone, but any company that can generate more than £3Bn FCF must have something going for it.
So is the drop in VOD price due to the company performance or due to major cash outflow from the a London exchanges? Several companies are using outflow as a reason for their poor share price performance this last 12 months. Some are taking action and either dual listing or looking at changing listing location.
The reasons behind the outflow are not clear, but possible candidates include overall higher tax burdens, Brexit and trading barriers, overall state of UK economy, inevitable Labour next election win, dire Tory mismanagement of the economy, or just that there are better prospects elsewhere than in the exchanges of our sometimes tawdry little island. Whatever the reason the babies are going out with the bathwater with PEs in lownsingle figures, double digit yields and ROCE promises in the 20s and above.
The outflow of cash on the London exchanges is significant enough to have gathered a momentum of its own. A few lifeboat companies are still doing OK, UK money has to go somewhere, but those with any questions over debt, earnings, market position or just general mood music are being punished.
Would VOD be rated higher if it was listed in NY, on the NASDAQ or elsewhere?
Rob. Fleccy, wasn't that the name of the band leader on the Titanic? No, can't be? Vodafone is unsinkable, I think? Happy monday.
Hi Fleccy, yes i totally understand those options, it's just a shame this share has put us in this situation though, and if you've got money to invest it's always a difficult decision where is going to be the best place to invest it for the best return, I thought my last top up here was a bargain at 86p, let's hope this bugger can turn around and reward us, I know what Dan will say that's stay positive, difficult sometimes though, i don't want to sell any of my shares for under a £1 and thankfully i'm in no hurry to sell, so let's see what 2024 will bring us
Rob, if Vodafone goes bust and I lose all my capital then I'll hold my hands up and say it's a bad investment, we're not there yet. I did have high hopes for India, which turned out to be a huge disappointment and I didn't agree with their purchase of the Liberty Global assets in Germany and Eastern Europe, but we are where we are. My choices are to sell up completely, turn my paper loss into a capital loss and invest elsewhere in the hope my new investment choice compensates for my Vodafone loss, meaning VOD was a bad investment, or I could keep doing what I've been doing; Keep collecting the dividends and reinvesting them elsewhere, or on this occasion topping up Vodafone and significantly reducing my average cost per share and keep collecting dividends as long as they continue. Whether or not Vodafone is a bad investment depends on the final outcome, If VOD eventually climbs back to £1.60, or £2, then I'll be sitting on a substantial paper gain and I'll be able to say it was a good investment if I decide to sell at that point.
71p for me please Bob
Up 2% tonight on the NASDAQ, so far. Could this worm 🐛 be finally about to turn? We can only hope and pray. It's not like Margherita or the BOD ever try to talk it up or anything. Stoney silence seems to be the norm from VOD. Maybe large dollops of patience will eventually pay off here!
Accolade this week goes to Newsid well done
Vod closing Sp 1st Dec 71.67p
Speech Speech Newsid, you know the ropes by now
Enjoy your weekend
Full list will follow..atb
Dan, you are the King of sarcasm mate, as much as i like fleccy i'm not sure he will ever admit this has been a bad investment
This is of course the worst situation you can get into when investing in any shares, you buy in because you think it's a company that's going to grow technology of the future etc.
then the share price drops and keeps on dropping every year, so you are now trapped in this share with only two options sell up at a loss or stay in collect the dividends and hope that one day it will come back good again and return your capital, but let's be clear there's no guarantee that will ever happen
where this will go from here nobody knows, let's hope it's up
Cheers fleccy, as rob will confirm, you know I only joking with my comments?
Dan I must be doing something right. I said the share price would likely finish in the low 70's last week, due to going ex dividend, prompting you to change your prediction; And I said it'd likely dip below 70p this week going off previous price action following ex dividend dates, funnily enough by looking at charts; Vodafone hit a low of 69.89p on Wednesday.
Hello roofer. Well I could do a chart, but I think I will just go 74p I will leave the charts to those another planet, or universe even!
Thanks fleccy & sorry but you are just stating the blindingly obvious, that is, if the sp falls you can get more shares for your money, you don't need a chart. I feel that it is folly to buy high divi shares just to re invest, what is the point of receiving the divi if you are just going pay it all back in again with all the costs involved. If vod paid no divi & just kept the money , you might be better off than receiving the divi but then pay it back in. At the end of the day, a fall in the sp is only good if you can guarantee it will recover to the original price. No such guarantee excists of course & vods sp has in the past done the exact opposite. But of course that may change, so it is just a gamble. We are just chasing our losses, but I think the sp will rise, so I am not selling. But of course I could be wrong. Anyway mate, your latest buy is showing a small profit so far, so good luck with that.
Dan it's just meant to demonstrate the compounding power of dividend reinvestment and how a reduction in the share price buys more stock when dividends are reinvested, it isn't meant to be a real world example. Something else to consider is that Fleccy2 pulls in dividend income of £14,633.34 in year 18, whereas Fleccy1 only brings in dividend income of £7,599.37 in the same year.
Here's a chart showing the growth in dividend income with each passing year of reinvestment. It really demonstrates the differences between the two, with Fleccy2's dividend returns pulling further away from Fleccy1's year on year:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=305726335&format=interactive
Fleccy. Having taken another look at your charts, it would take fleccy 2, 18 years just to be equal the fleccy 1 valuation, & that is assuming the fleccy 2 share price, & divi holds, & he is not dead. I know which fleccy I would rather be even if I do live for another 18 years.
They aren’t taking over 3. Reducing market share by palming debt off onto Hutchinson in a JV vehicle.
Who’s gonna run that, well?
Will VOD do an RR?
As an ex employee who’s been through mergers I’d say not with the current senior management. My experience with the CW merger was horrendous but with 3 at least they’ll understand the market.
Voda have a cultural arrogance that makes them think they’re great, they resist change internally despite looking to improve by bringing in others, they also have a very young overall age profile (38), lots of reinventing the same wheel. Their takeover of 3 will certainly create synergy savings and an opportunity to reduce headcount, though they’ll be unlikely to adopt 3’s more agile ways, been there too. That said I’m invested and ever hopeful that they can reduce the debt and move the business forward and improve the stock price for all of us. But do an RR (I’m up to my chest there) unlikely in the short term.
Gazza bombings started again few hours ago,, Not Looking Good,, Could Get Very Ugly Very Soon..
"Fleccy. It is pure fantasy, making the assumption that the sp falls by 50% in 1st year & then continues to rise for the next 29years. "
Does that mean you don't disagree with the alternate reality part of my example then Dan?
Actually you misunderstood the chart, the share price or dividend rate doesn't rise for Fleccy1, or Fleccy2; Fleccy1's share price stays at £2 for 31 years and Fleccy2's share price remains at £1 for the 31 years, both Fleccy's receive annual dividends of 7.7p per share. The reason Fleccy2's shares rise on a steeper curve is because he can buy more shares at £1 per share than Fleccy1 can at £2, and because Fleccy2 is adding shares at a much faster rate than Fleccy1 he increases his future dividends and shareholding at an exponentially faster rate, allowing him to catch up and eventually overtake Fleccy1.
The whole idea of the chart was supposed to demonstrate an easy to understand example of how dividend reinvestment gives an enhanced return as the share price drops.
Dan, I was thinking of doing a chart to illustrate how you can lose more money on your capital than you get back in dividends if the share price keeps dropping every year, but i didn't want to be a wet blanket
as long as we finish on a high tomorrow i will be happy with that for this week
That fleccy1 and fleccy2 example is a very nice illustration of why I like BP shares, their buybacks are at a much lower price than the other oil majors so over the long term they don't need to perform as well as the others for their share price to outperform.
Sorry for going off-topic, I have also invested in VOD recently (after keeping a tiny position from 120p). I am hoping that with the change in interest rate expectations, the debt load will be seen as less of an issue leading to a price rise.