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"Oh dear, Garonne attempting to ramp this share with an end of year prediction. Further hypocrisy.
Please take anything this charlatan says with a huge pinch of salt."
Heh bumble,
It's not possible to ramp a stock of this size.
Spent a little too long on the aim boards methinks.
I've heard of AFC.
They couldn't score in a brothel.
Apologies to VOD posters but unfortunately I've been followed on here by an unhinged AFC poster who has seemingly begun stalking me! (I'm guessing most of you have never heard of AFC)
The shareprice has collapsed by circa 62% since 31st December 2022 when Nick Read stepped down as CEO and Margherita took over in an interim role, at least initially. Some say that she should not be called out for this atrocious performance but I disagree. The buck stops at the top, so MDV needs to start addressing this catastrophic failure or go. Maybe she could start by talking to the market to emphasize how her plan (if she has one) is going to bring prosperity back to this fallen giant. We never here anything from her in the media or elsewhere. It's an extremely poor show.
The Vantage Towers growth capital expenditure entry might be a one off in the last FY22/23, probably wont show in the current FY figures.
Vodafone's a complex beast, but the three stand out's are EBITDAal, Net Debt and Capex. Dividends are accounted for separately from Free Cash Flow and adds directly into Net Debt.
These are the entries feeding into the Cash Flow calculation:
Adjusted EBITDAaL
Capital additions (Capex)
Working capital
Disposal of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets
Integration capital additions
Restructuring costs including working capital movements
Licences and spectrum
Interest received and paid
Taxation
Dividends received from associates and joint ventures
Dividends paid to non-controlling shareholders in subsidiaries
Other
Working Capital is deducted at H1, but adds back in at H2/FY, so the FCF fluctuates synchronously with Working Capital:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=498591&format=interactive
I suspect the Working Capital goes toward paying down debt as it becomes due.
Free Cash Flow feeds into Net Debt, but separate to that these also feed into the Net Debt calculation:
Acquisitions and disposals
Equity dividends paid
Share buybacks
Foreign exchange (loss)/gain
Other movements in net debt
When Vodafone publish their Adjusted Free Cash Flow they add these Adjustments back into the figure:
- Licences and spectrum
- Restructuring costs including working capital movements
- Integration capital additions
- Vantage Towers growth capital expenditure
- Other adjustments
Overall without doing a deep dive into the segmental analyses of future required Capex and licences/Spectrum, it isn't clear how much selling assets like Spain and Italy, or merging VOD UK and Three would save on future Capex; Vodafone probably know how much difference these changes will make going forward, but it's beyond me.
Vodafone could maintain FCF if they can reduce Capex and Spectrum/licences, on the back of any disposals. Interest paid and received is less than half the dividend payout, so easily manageable. If Vodafone cancelled the dividend it would be equivalent to around Taxation and Interest on Debt combined.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive
If I've got anything wrong, let me know and I'll take another look.
" but free cash-flow wont sustain an 11% dividend. "
yes , I think the market is already suggesting that , indicating the dividend would be cut back should the revenues drop as a result of asset sales.... The market is giving its view for the BOD to take note of, I suspect
95p for me please
I'll go for 92p - optimistic I know!
Eoy Vod closing Sp
AbjectP 107p
Lawrence 175p
Unlucky9 250p
Added to list
*please note weekly Prophecy closes 12pm Mon sharp
EoY £1.75
EoW £0.82
🥳🥳
Put me down for 75p. My glass ball says sale news about to drop. 🙏
VOD get, Surely it’s less strain on the other parts of the company as they don’t have to make up half a billion in loses. Won’t the dividend be covered by not having the big loses as these companies. How ever much they add to total income they are just a negative on. adding anything so profit.
'Surely getting rid of two big loss making countrries can only help the dividend.'
Probably.
MDV will need to firm up the contribution each of the continuing businesses is going to make if she sells underperforming assets as a strategy. In particular, dividend sustainability, E& leadership etc
Surely getting rid of two big loss making countrries can only help the dividend.
£1 this year if MDV can get the BoD to make big decisions.
Selling Italy vs merging Italy will tell.
We know a couple of disposals can clear debt to zero but free cashflow wont sustain an 11% dividend.
Think I want E& rns increasing their stake and the div maintained
$hitcoin is the biggest scam ever transferring wealth from the haves to not haves.
Dr Varoufakis nailed it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JGYpDZixlY
My EOY prediction - 250p
Think this will be a much better year for shares in general and vodafone will recover to over £1 by year end
Dan, how are them night classes going mate? It would be a strange and boring world if we were all the same and all had the same opinions, i don't mind Fleccy or pokerchips posting charts as long as they don't force me to read them
one thing we all have in common is we want this dam share price to rise, but personally i don't want to wait 10 or 20 years for it to happen, let's hope this year will be a bit kinder to all of us Voders
sack the CEO i say and give their bonuses to me lol
The imminent approval of a US spot ETF is currently sucking all the air out of the room, CNBC seem to be talking about it every time I've looked in today. I've taken a long hard look at Bitcoin and I just don't understand why any sensible person would invest in it. Poker the reason I'm mentioning this is because I'd be interested in your view of Bitcoin and Crypto/DeFi in general.
How does Bitcoin Mining work:
Bitcoin is mined by processing Blocks using ASICS to compete in a race, to find to a Hash lower than or equal to the Target Hash. The large Miners build huge ASIC farms to increase the probability of finding a winning Hash, or smaller Miners join Pools, where all the ASICS in the Pool work together to increase their chance of finding a winning Hash. The Network runs a difficulty algorithm that looks at the number of Blocks processed, and either increases or decreases the difficulty every 2016 Blocks, dependent on the average time taken to reach the 2016 Block difficulty change point; The idea of the difficulty algorithm is to limit the overall speed Blocks are processed, to an average of one Block every 10 minutes; The more Network Hash/processing power used to find a winning Hash, the faster the Network will process the 2016 Blocks causing the difficulty algorithm to lower the Target Hash, making a winning Hash harder to find. Because of the race to find the winning Hash the Proof of Work method requires massive amounts of energy, to power the huge number of ASICS required for the miners compete and win the Bitcoin reward. The transaction space available in one BTC Block is around 1mb, so the Bitcoin network can only process 1mb of transactions every 10 minutes, which is pitifully slow. Each halving comes around approximately every 4 years, and reduces the Bitcoin reward by half for the miners who find the winning Hash, the next halving is due around this April and will reduce the Bitcoin reward to 3.125 Bitcoin per processed Block. The Miners rely on the Bitcoin price to increase with each halving, otherwise the on-grid miners wont be able to cover their operating costs and make a profit. As the BTC reward falls, in the absence of the Bitcoin price increasing, the miners will have to rely on transaction charges to fill any gaps in income.
My view is that Bitcoin is the most hyped, artificial, useless investment the planet has ever seen, so the fact that people plough their hard earned cash into something comparable to the Emperors New Clothes is astounding in my opinion. The vested interest commentators have telegraphed various use cases and narratives to pump the token, with the only remaining one describing it as Digital Gold, more like Digital Fool's Gold if you ask me.
Is it any wonder companies that actually do useful things are down in the dumps in this topsy turvy investment world?
I'm still awaiting a convincing argument supporting any value in Bitcoin, maybe someone on here can set me straight?
Another day with huge amounts of trades going through something must be cooking...atb
Fleccy
"many" people here just watch the share price squiggle on the page ..they don't get very involved in accounts, charts, debt repayments etc ... ...they just buy and follow whether the price goes up or down ..and call the CEO useless if they lose money !!
Interest rates at the moment make it less risk to invest in other asset classes than shares ..or even bonds ... and all the market is ..is relating risk to reward ... not valuing assets etc ... UK is more risk adverse I think than the US ...the US tends to realise more time is needed to grow a business
plus..there isn't the leverage right now to pump more borrowed money into the markets ....
I do get the impression that the Swiss, French, German Investment banks have been particularly negative towards UK shares with their CFD shorts and sells
London though has become a trading centre - especially during harder times ..... shorter term price cycles
Interesting what the taxes the Govt receive from the City currently are.... that tends to bring change if they lose tax revenue !!
the US has a lot of money of course .... the Golden 7 in the SP500 seem merely as car parks to park cash whilst wondering what else to do with it ...but take those 7 out and the SP500 performance hasn't been so great either ...
There are a couple of reasons I have faith in BT and Vodafone; One is that the Telecom sector has been trashed for years and is overdue a different narrative, the other reason is the persistent trashing of UK stocks over the same period, also overdue a change of narrative. From recent articles I believe the Government are starting to view UK stock valuations as a serious issue and will start looking at ways to turn this around. I suspect there'll be some sort of carrot and stick approach, probably centered around tax benefits and allowances. If I was in Government I'd immediately end the right to hold foreign stocks in ISA's and make them available for UK listed stocks only. There are also changes they could make to encourage UK based investment and pension funds to invest in FTSE stocks. I don't see why any UK based investor should receive tax benefits for investing in Foreign markets.
As far as my opinion's concerned, I just tell it the way I see it and present arguments reflecting my opinion, and if I get something wrong I'll admit it and make corrections as necessary.
I even received criticism after I've gone to the effort of producing charts detailing Vodafone's debt maturity, and reduction in Bond debt over time if debt repaid without refinancing; You just can't please some people.
Pokerchips. A very good post from you about fleccy, & exactly how I feel, but based on fleccy's response, you clearly have a far better way of putting it than I do, so thanks for that.