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Sensetalka giving up posting on here? Not a good sign
Thanks Sense for that comprehensive response. Much appreciated.
Hi all,
Trying to spend less time on these bulletin boards now but don't want you thinking I'm being rude so to answer a few of your questions.
1. No, had no reply from the company about the land sale, it will take them ages, we all know how bad they are at investor relations - soon as I have any reply I will post here.
2. I said big year for VLS this year because this is the year we are expecting the announcement of SAF mandates, FEED completion for the plants, F4C award and financial close on Bayout. Next year is when financial close on Altalto is so also a big year.
3. Risk/Reward, someone was asking me about that, I understand where you're coming from on likelihood risk, for reasons I've stated already I think it's more likely than not that the plant gets funded, my own belief, and that's all it is, is that we're about 80% likely to get at least 1 plant funded. My point is that on other stocks I am in the risk has a 100% downside so if the investment doesn't work out, I will lose it all whereas here, I believe there is a downside of 50-60% if neither of the plants get funded but an upside of over 1,000%
4. Competition, the SAF sector needs to grow 250,000% by mid 2030's so whilst it's not ideal that other competitors are showing up on our shores, until we have 4 or 5 of them then there's still a place for VLS. UK alone needs 14 plants remember and no one single company can build that many so we need competition.
5. BA, it was inevitable BA were going to invest in SAF supply chains themselves, they openly said they had £400m to invest and never once said it was all going to VLS. Makes perfect sense for them to spread their bets, especially if mandates do come into force in 2025 as predicted then there's going to be a global shortage of the stuff and hefty fines if you can't get your hands on any. Remember that carbon offsets are not going to count, or the idea by ReFuelEU and others is that they shouldn't count. Just on carbon offsetting, I did some digging on that and even if ALL of the available land on the planet was used for planting trees etc... that would only allow the transport industry to offset 8% of their emissions so it's just not feasible as a long term solution whereas green fuels with carbon capture and sequestering are. Something both the Bayou and Altalto plant have or will have access too thereby producing net negative carbon fuels.
Links to stuff I've posted here is all kept on my twitter thread for anyone interested >> https://twitter.com/sensetalka/status/1340042817645793281?s=20 Like I say, don't plan to use this bulletin board much going forward.
Well the trend is down so it'll be up to you to judge if now is the right time. Until material progress is seen on this project, i think it will continue to trickle down. Its clear that the Management are not concerned about SP, as they have no skin in the game.
We are now below the pre-xmas spurt level which would suggest further downside.
I'll post when I have a response from the company goldtrig. As Loosely has already shown the timescales are contradictory and need clarifying. I mailed the company this morning after seeing that but as we know, they're not exactly hot on investor engagement.
You should never take advice on whether to buy and sell stocks off strangers on the internet. By all means read and understand their comments, combine that with your own research and make your own decision. You will be far more successful doing that.
Trust in yourself.
I'd like to think we will see a turnaround in SP/sentiment here shortly. 3rd March chancellor unveils his budget where he is expected to outline the mandate for the newly established NIB. All eyes and ears on that.
Only you can really answer that. We've been lower and we've been higher. I'm holding for now - in at 6.5p - and believe good things to come as we continue as a world to become greener. I guess basically I hope Velocys gets in on the act. But yes patience is getting a bit thin and would dearly love the company to release updates/plans/responses etc.
Guys I'm getting sick of this stock. Everyday going down!! be honest with me should I just sell and move on???