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The results can only be in The second half of April now. So much for early April.
Hope there is not a technical problem as well as the GT staffing issue.
Apologies. For some reason when I wrote the last post, I was thinking it was Wednesday. So there is actually two days of trading this week left.
I sold this morning. I still think Venture Life is great company (I've been using Dentyl and I think it's brilliant mouthwash) but this lack of communication about the results is frustrating. The results HAVE to be out by tomorrow because I believe there is no trading on Friday for Easter weekend, however, I don't have faith in that happening. Might buy back the shares down the line when the matter clears up. Good luck to everybody holding and I hope this rockets.
We are 40% into April…..definitely middle third and middle quintile…so I think mid-April has been reached…..no longer early April.
“When does early April become mid April become late April ?”
Exactly. Investors need certainty and the lack of an RNS even just announcing a specific day for the results to be released is frustrating. Next week, fingers crossed.
When does early April become mid April become late April ?
Accounts need to be out next week….otherwise there will growing suspicions of problems.
Having an RNS any day now would be nice. Just to clarify what date exactly will the results will be released. Sadly seeing strong sell numbers over the last couple of days.
There's quite a number of these sorts of delays happening with auditors.... S4's share price crashed this week when PWC announced they couldn't finalise the audit. VLG have painted a very positive picture so once this is endorsed in the FY2021 accounts we'll see a rerate.
I picked up more VLG today sub 37p which I'm pleased with.
The RNS mentioned early April, so maybe next week at the latest. I was hoping for an RNS today to confirm the date, but alas nothing.
I will be worried if the results aren’t out by Easter ??
The announcement clearly blames the auditor…..but a delay did happen before when they changed the CFO.
The two acquisitions win 21 will make it a bigger job, and there is a lot of covid about which may effect staffing. A little bit more information about the circumstances might help the market avoid the worst of the speculative reasons for a delay.
The management commentary implies there is nothing untoward.
"This delay is not acceptable."
Especially announcing it the day before the results were supposed to be released. Don't know if this is on VLG's end or the auditor's end.
This delay is not acceptable. VLG needs to change auditors.
Let’s hope it is just a resource issue rather than a problem.
**233% upside?**
Hi all, I'm very excited by today's update. Let me share why.
1. Revenue £0.6m ahead of estimates. So what I hear you say. Bear with me.
2. EBITDA "in line" so that means it's around £6.3m. So 2021 PE of 9.9 (half to that of its peers)
3. Samarkind/China boost started in early 2022.
4. Forward PE forecast to drop to 7.8 based on past assumptions..... BUT
5. Did anyone spot the "Q4 revenues 59% above Q3"? Game changer in my opinion. My maths is that we know H1 2021 was £13.9m revenue leaving £18.7m for H2 yeah? We know Q4 59% above so £18.7m/2.59 gives us Q3 at £7.2m (same run rate as Q1 and Q2) and Q4 as £11.5m. 50% jump from Q3 to Q4.
6. What's more a 11.5m for Q4, assuming we see only modest 10% growth in 2022 now suggests a £50.5m revenue for 2022, or £5m ahead of Cenkos prior forecasts. I think 10% is too modest because of China/Samarkand so indulge me and assume 20% that brings us to £55m with a likely PBT of about £8m compared to Cenkos current 2022 forecast of £4m (based on £41.7m turnover).
7. On that 20% scenario the 2022 PE has now dropped to 6 so now about 233% upside compared to peers which suggests a fair value of 133p
8. However it just gets better. We know VLG have a credit line of nearly £50m and potentially more based on the GP of the acquiring firm so there's room for other upside via acquisitions. We also know they have production capacity to cater for growing revenue (to around £65m-70m).
9. We also know that Covid is rampant even if we are now apparently pretending it isn't there and we can all take the masks off. Practical steps like taking Dentyl is probably the way forward in a world where keeping a mask on makes people frown. I've been to business meetings recently where I felt like an odd ball keeping my mask on. We also know the Chinese profilically eat their shark fins and rhino horns and all sorts of weird stuff so they'll hammer the Dentyl if they think it will do them some good.
10. For what it's worth I felt the new CFO is a better speaker than the prior one. I think they've filled that vacancy well (or pushed out the old one and replaced him with a better alternative, who knows)
Anyway I'm very bullish and I'm gratified to see this heading in the way I anticipated it would. I think we'll see Cenkos' article in early April then ST apeing their analysis shortly after. That gives you a week or so window to buy in the 40s. I've a healthy position already here but I must say I'm sorely tempted to top up further ahead of news.
GLA
Announcement re: Full year results for the year ended 31st December 2021
Venture Life (AIM: VLG), a leader in developing, manufacturing and commercialising products for the self-care market, announces that the Company's auditors have been unable to meet the pre-agreed timetable for the approval of the results on 24th March 2022, citing resource issues. As a result of this delay, the Company expects to announce its results for the year ended 31st December 2021 in early April.
Vol. Sold 1,767
Sold Value £649.85
Vol. Bought 165,215
Bought Value £62,710.59
Some frenzied buying today.
Hopefully we'll see some positive results and SP go past 50p.
The recovery at Aim-traded Venture Life (VLG:51p), a developer, manufacturer and distributor of products for the self-care markets, is gathering traction.
A pre-close trading update for the year just ended was in line with my financial analysis three weeks ago when I made the case to buy the shares, at 40p (‘Venture Life’s recovery potential revealed’, 10 January 2022). Of more importance is news that the order book is “significantly ahead of the same time last year”, shipments with new China distribution partner have started, and two UK health and beauty retailers will be launching Venture’s lesser known in-house brands (for rosacea, women’s intimate gel, and wart & varruca pen) under their own labels. The group is also progressing an aggressive expansion plan for prostrate cancer management product Pomi-T.
Priced on a forward PE ratio of 11 for 2022, I maintain my 100p target. Buy.
why the drop never thought VLG had exposure to Russia?
Hi Agricore. I think one of us is misunderstanding the other. Your points:
1. I agree. I'm an example. Immunocompromised as I am I certainly wouldn't be going to the pub on a Saturday night, as I did the other day, without having found ways - like Dentyl - to minimise the risk.
2. Absolutely I agree, and that's why for me this is still so urgent. As I've said before, this is cheap, accessible right across the world, and it works.
3. Again I agree. I'm a believer!
4. I'm no expert, but I think both are essential - however peer review is no use without the numbers to review.
5. I truly hope so.
And I'm glad you mentioned the Chinese. They're not fools, they're worried sick about their poor vaccine + Omicron and progeny of, and may well pick up on this. If these competent marketers can get their act together for China VLG could as you say still do well. Meanwhile the rest of the world can go on breeding variants. I think Dentyl could help to stop that, my beef is that now we need another trial which will take forever.
Some quick thoughts on those details:
1. Surprised that they confined themselves just to hospital inpatients. No wonder they had trouble recruiting. So many outside also with viral loads in the saliva, far less worries about survival, and no co-morbidities. And given that - astonishingly to me - the only practical area where they seemed to be considering application was dental appointments then ambulant outpatients would seem to me to be more appropriate.
2. So with only 78 volunteers of which 27 had live virus (due to the time the disease had had to progress by the time they were in hospital), they had only enough patients for 6/7 for each of the 3 oral rinses they were testing plus the saline control: Normasol. Thus they were not going to achieve anything like useful statistical results.
3. VERY surprised indeed that "saliva was collected before rinsing (baseline), and at 1-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes post-rinsing", and not at say 12 and 24 hour periods afterwards, as well. For Dentyl normal use is twice a day, so 12 hour is very relevant.
4. Dentyl had 7 patients. IT WORKED. Far, far superior to the others. "Impressively, in 3/8 patients treated with Dentyl Dual Action, no live virus was recovered at any timepoint after the initial rinse" - but of course that is just up to 1 hour.
It appears that Dentyl just about wipes the throat clean, exactly as the in vitro results indicated 16 months ago. The virus does minimal harm in the throat, but while the throat is clean it will be far less likely to be passing the infection to the lungs where it does become dangerous, and while it builds up again the body is learning to fight it. That's what I think! And that's why I'm gutted that this trial is such a damp squib.
But at least - at last - finally - we have the results.....
For those willing to take the time to decipher it....!
"Although a subset of mouthwashes were effective in vitro, it was important to determine their effectiveness in vivo, where virus is being shed continually in the oropharynx. A randomised clinical trial was undertaken to measure the antiviral efficacy of mouthwashes following a 30 second rinse. 78 hospital in-patients with PCR-diagnosed COVID 19 were recruited, following invitation of over 400 to participate. Despite a positive PCR test in the preceding 14 days, only 27/78 patients had live SARS-CoV2 present in their baseline saliva. Recent studies show that live virus is almost never detected beyond 9 days post-symptom onset in immunocompetent patients (44). As our patients were ill enough to be admitted to hospital, many were likely beyond this timepoint. Unfortunately, this was not known at the time sample collection was initiated and only became evident towards the end, with the study terminated at 6 months. By then, new UK daily cases had decreased from 55,892 (31st Dec 2020) to 4,052 (31st March 2021), hospitalised patient numbers were declining and co-morbidity and ventilatory support in these patients rendered them ineligible for randomisation (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk), making further recruitment impossible. Amongst patients with live virus, saliva was collected before rinsing (baseline), and at 1-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes post-rinsing, with mouthwashes containing either containing CPC/IPM (Dentyl Dual Action, n = 8), CPC/benzoate (SCD Ultra, n = 7), PVP-I (Videne, n = 6) or 0.9% w/v NaCl (Normasol, n = 6). Data is shown as both log2-fold reduction from baseline (Figure 5 D) and as individual patient data (Figure 6). Across the entire cohort, baseline salivary viral load varied widely, from 120 PFU/ml to 2.8 × 107 PFU/mL (Supplementary Data1.xls). All four mouthwashes reduced salivary viral load 1-minute post-rinsing, with the smallest reduction being from Normasol® (median 3.9 log2 fold reduction from baseline) and the largest Dentyl Dual Action where 6/7 patients recorded no live virus (median 14.3 log2 reduction from baseline) (Figure 5 D, Tables 3,4). The persistence of the effects varied with rinse. No significant reduction in salivary viral load was seen with Videne at any of the time-points, while for Normasol® a significant reduction was apparent only at 60 minutes. For SCD Ultra, a significant reduction in viral load was seen at 1 minute only (median 8.9 log2 reduction from baseline, Figure 5 D). Dentyl Dual Action was the only product to demonstrate a persistent effect, with a significant reduction evident throughout at 1, 15, 30 and 60 minutes respectively (medians 14.3, 11, 8.8, 9, log2 reduction from baseline). Impressively, in 3/8 patients treated with Dentyl Dual Action, no live virus was recovered at any timepoint after the initial rinse (Figure 6)."
I disagree with QD22 for a number of reasons:
1. Withdrawal of government support for covid testing - while there’s 50% who couldn’t give a monkeys and don’t wear masks etc there’s 50% who do. They will be actively looking for ways to minimise risk especially as wearing masks will become increasingly uncommon - for example goi g to a work meeting.
2. We are all assuming covid is “being lived with” all of a sudden. Didn’t we think that 6 months ago with delta? Then came omicron. So there’s no guarantee covid can’t whipsaw back again.
3. The fact this is further backed up elsewhere such as Salisbury hospital gives further credence
4. The fact that it is PEER REVIEWED is also key. This matters more than the size of the sample.
5. Id also point out vlg are competent marketers so I dare say they are executing product plans they had on stand by for today.
Meanwhile Chinese sales are other reasons for optimism and the forthcoming results are reasons for optimism next month….
Gla
Jatw, first, thank you for your earlier reply. I appreciated your measured kindness - especially in a total vacuum of any other response.
I wish I had time for a proper response - hopefully later.
First thoughts are that yes, what a crying shame the trial was so small.
In 40% of the hospitalised patients, who would have the virus all over it never came back. That's amazing.
In the rest the results were only for up to one hour later. Oh! 99.8% reduction overall. ie probably in most it was also completely eliminated.
Basically it's clear but not proven - as before, but much more so - that's it's a very effective first line of protection.
I am "immunologically compromised". I have been gargling nightly. I have nice fresh breath, clean gums (I'm sure my dentist on the breadline is DEVASTATED!), and am living a normal life!
Why wait for the trial? It's cheap and it's not going to hurt you. £1.99 in Home Bargains. Lasts for months, you use half a capful. Recommend the clove not the mint :) !
... are out and were successful. However, the sample is tiny (smaller than I appreciated) and further large scale trials are now required. Don't hold your breath (sic) for it to be an earner for VLG anytime soon.