Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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For those willing to take the time to decipher it....!
"Although a subset of mouthwashes were effective in vitro, it was important to determine their effectiveness in vivo, where virus is being shed continually in the oropharynx. A randomised clinical trial was undertaken to measure the antiviral efficacy of mouthwashes following a 30 second rinse. 78 hospital in-patients with PCR-diagnosed COVID 19 were recruited, following invitation of over 400 to participate. Despite a positive PCR test in the preceding 14 days, only 27/78 patients had live SARS-CoV2 present in their baseline saliva. Recent studies show that live virus is almost never detected beyond 9 days post-symptom onset in immunocompetent patients (44). As our patients were ill enough to be admitted to hospital, many were likely beyond this timepoint. Unfortunately, this was not known at the time sample collection was initiated and only became evident towards the end, with the study terminated at 6 months. By then, new UK daily cases had decreased from 55,892 (31st Dec 2020) to 4,052 (31st March 2021), hospitalised patient numbers were declining and co-morbidity and ventilatory support in these patients rendered them ineligible for randomisation (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk), making further recruitment impossible. Amongst patients with live virus, saliva was collected before rinsing (baseline), and at 1-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes post-rinsing, with mouthwashes containing either containing CPC/IPM (Dentyl Dual Action, n = 8), CPC/benzoate (SCD Ultra, n = 7), PVP-I (Videne, n = 6) or 0.9% w/v NaCl (Normasol, n = 6). Data is shown as both log2-fold reduction from baseline (Figure 5 D) and as individual patient data (Figure 6). Across the entire cohort, baseline salivary viral load varied widely, from 120 PFU/ml to 2.8 × 107 PFU/mL (Supplementary Data1.xls). All four mouthwashes reduced salivary viral load 1-minute post-rinsing, with the smallest reduction being from Normasol® (median 3.9 log2 fold reduction from baseline) and the largest Dentyl Dual Action where 6/7 patients recorded no live virus (median 14.3 log2 reduction from baseline) (Figure 5 D, Tables 3,4). The persistence of the effects varied with rinse. No significant reduction in salivary viral load was seen with Videne at any of the time-points, while for Normasol® a significant reduction was apparent only at 60 minutes. For SCD Ultra, a significant reduction in viral load was seen at 1 minute only (median 8.9 log2 reduction from baseline, Figure 5 D). Dentyl Dual Action was the only product to demonstrate a persistent effect, with a significant reduction evident throughout at 1, 15, 30 and 60 minutes respectively (medians 14.3, 11, 8.8, 9, log2 reduction from baseline). Impressively, in 3/8 patients treated with Dentyl Dual Action, no live virus was recovered at any timepoint after the initial rinse (Figure 6)."
I disagree with QD22 for a number of reasons:
1. Withdrawal of government support for covid testing - while there’s 50% who couldn’t give a monkeys and don’t wear masks etc there’s 50% who do. They will be actively looking for ways to minimise risk especially as wearing masks will become increasingly uncommon - for example goi g to a work meeting.
2. We are all assuming covid is “being lived with” all of a sudden. Didn’t we think that 6 months ago with delta? Then came omicron. So there’s no guarantee covid can’t whipsaw back again.
3. The fact this is further backed up elsewhere such as Salisbury hospital gives further credence
4. The fact that it is PEER REVIEWED is also key. This matters more than the size of the sample.
5. Id also point out vlg are competent marketers so I dare say they are executing product plans they had on stand by for today.
Meanwhile Chinese sales are other reasons for optimism and the forthcoming results are reasons for optimism next month….
Gla
Jatw, first, thank you for your earlier reply. I appreciated your measured kindness - especially in a total vacuum of any other response.
I wish I had time for a proper response - hopefully later.
First thoughts are that yes, what a crying shame the trial was so small.
In 40% of the hospitalised patients, who would have the virus all over it never came back. That's amazing.
In the rest the results were only for up to one hour later. Oh! 99.8% reduction overall. ie probably in most it was also completely eliminated.
Basically it's clear but not proven - as before, but much more so - that's it's a very effective first line of protection.
I am "immunologically compromised". I have been gargling nightly. I have nice fresh breath, clean gums (I'm sure my dentist on the breadline is DEVASTATED!), and am living a normal life!
Why wait for the trial? It's cheap and it's not going to hurt you. £1.99 in Home Bargains. Lasts for months, you use half a capful. Recommend the clove not the mint :) !
... are out and were successful. However, the sample is tiny (smaller than I appreciated) and further large scale trials are now required. Don't hold your breath (sic) for it to be an earner for VLG anytime soon.
QD22, you have the results…….interesting but the number of patients tested is not statistically sufficient.
The question now is do they do the large study……costs will be significantly more and may not generate sales….
This is not the future of the company so in my opinion they should pause testing..
The delay would suggest the trial was at best inconclusive and at worst a failure.
The vaccines have worked and there may be no sales bump to be gained now……best to let it go and be forgotten.
WHERE ARE THESE RESULTS?
18th November 2020, RNS:
"Today, the Company provides an update on the recently published[1] in-vitro results from a separate, independent laboratory study undertaken at Cardiff University by Dr Richard Stanton and his colleagues.
In their published in-vitro[2] study, scientists at Cardiff University concluded that Venture Life's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus completely (>5log reduction, equivalent to 99.999%) within a 30 second exposure."
1st December 2021, RNS:
"The Company continues to await the publication of the peer-reviewed in vivo study carried out by Cardiff University, which was completed in April this year. Whilst the Board is disappointed that this has taken longer than expected to publish, and does acknowledge that the timing is outside the control of Cardiff University, it is hopeful the final publication will be available soon. Further, the Company notes the recent announcement made by Salisbury Hospital regarding specific mouth care guidance for patients with Covid-19. As well as regular toothbrushing, the guidance also suggests that both Dentyl Dual Action and Dentyl Fresh Protect should be used. The Company understands this guidance was based on research conducted by Doctors at Salisbury Hospital, as well as the in-vitro (lab based) results widely published by Cardiff University in November 2020."
How is my throat going to be a fundamentally different environment from a test tube at the same temperature?
Open Orphan have been conducting trials where they infect volunteers with the virus deliberately: that way they can study the progress of the disease from day 1. According to one of the BBC science programmes (Inside Science?) that shows it starts in the throat, moves to the nose, then on. Gargling 1/2 X per day with something that kills 99.999% of the virus should therefore eliminate it or slow it down so much the body has no problem preparing for it and dealing with it. Thus effectively it would work as a free vaccine as well. It's CHEAP, it's EASY, it's already known as SAFE, it's already IN PRODUCTION, with DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN PLACE WORLDWIDE.
I emailed - politely - but got no answer.
I cannot see how this would not have saved many, many lives. The trial finished in APRIL.
Sometimes it's right to be very, very angry.
Simon Thompson tipped VLG on 31st January as follows (not posted here before):
"Penny drops with Venture Life
Share price rises 36 per cent following pre-close trading update
Order book significantly ahead of the same time last year
The recovery at Aim-traded Venture Life (VLG:51p), a developer, manufacturer and distributor of products for the self-care markets, is gathering traction.
A pre-close trading update for the year just ended was in line with my financial analysis three weeks ago when I made the case to buy the shares, at 40p (‘Venture Life’s recovery potential revealed, 10 January 2021). Of more importance is
news that the order book is “significantly ahead of the same time last year”,
shipments with new China distribution partner have started, and two UK health
and beauty retailers will be launching Venture’s lesser known in-house brands
(for rosacea, women’s intimate gel, and wart & varruca pen) under their own labels.
The group is also progressing an aggressive expansion plan for prostrate cancer
management product Pomi-T.
Priced on a forward PE ratio of 11 for 2022, I maintain my 100p target. Buy."
Took some more profit this morning …. Vlg is looking good!
I took some at 51.40…. very happy …. Will hold the rest!
it is time to take some profits from this morning 44p ,nice
yup growth up over 30% ..... I will cash in some Again ... but still think 60P in a few months!
Growth
DYOR
The tide can turn quickly with these v small cap companies.
Pre covid there was a steady self care business with excess manufacturing capacity.
They opportunistically started making hand sanitising gel (like many) for which there is now no margin (who cares), they also naively hyped a long term sales deal with China that could not be delivered (selling a western made chemical in China against local and copycat competition was alsways going to be a difficult task), the new China deal promises that VLG will be paid for what they sell which is a much sounder business. The core f the pre covid business is still there plus the two add ons.
We will need to see how the new products go…..I would prefer they don’t white label as that must mean a lot of value passes to the own brand and cannibalises the full price brand sales.
Market has probably overshot today by going over 50p…..but if your time horizon is several years it is probably a bargain.
...to sell.
It's a funny old company this one. When I compare the awful trading update of just 2 months ago against this one... it's bizarre... and I feel sorry for those who felt compelled in December.
looks very good this morning, 44p to buy
Indeed - great to see VLG updating and trading nicely in line, without any nasty surprises and everything appearing to be returning to a smoother path forward.
Good to see "the order book for the Group is significantly ahead of the same time last year".
And lots of progress product-wise:
"We are also pleased to report that a leading UK health and beauty retailer has confirmed they will launch our in-house developed product for rosacea in the UK and Ireland later in H1 2022 with the product being marketed under their own brand. This marks the first product launch under this retailer's own brand and paves the way for future collaboration. Furthermore, another key UK health and beauty retailer will launch our Wart & Verruca Pen and Women's Intimate Gel in H2 2022 under their own brand; finally, other new agreements have been recently completed for other products in other territories.
Following the successful integration of BBI Healthcare and Helsinn acquisitions, one of these new agreements has been signed for Pomi-T in Germany, which marks the start of the expansion plan of this product into key markets around the world, in another of the 5 major EU markets."
Brilliant result:
£32.6m revenue vs £32m guided. £600k ahead of expectations.
Run rate (extrapolating H2) is £37.5m revenue.
Adjusted Earnings £6.3m (?)
"Order book significantly ahead."
FY2021 result confirms this is trading on a PE of 8 in a growing company with outlook for 2022 where peers are on a PE of 20. It's safe to say this isn't gonna stay at 36p a share.
It's been delicious bargain buying today but I was lucky; I was in the process of moving funds from one SIPP provider to another so had dry powder through that.....
Once things settle down about the Ukraine we'll see a bounce in the market
Very good, thank you, but the market doesn't want to know.
I wish I had spare cash to take advantage of the carnage out there today, but sadly I'm fully invested. Another lesson for me to learn. What I certainly won't do is sell any of my holdings in this turmoil. Tin hats on.
Given the recent fall I went back over the recent interview on Vox Markets to write down the key points of the interview.
1. Brand strength in their niche areas (60% of revenue). Products are staples.
2. Customer Brands (40% of revenue) opportunity for new opportunities, additional sale of VLG products (white labelling)
3. Vertically integrated - helps offer better levels of service to customers
4. BBI - Balance Active Diabetes products - growing, 2 new areas of therapeutics - women's health; additional Swedish manufacturing capacity
5. Helsinn - Oncology products - help reduce side effects of cancer treatment - profitable and growing
6. Majority of sales are European. Looking to grow US presence. For now use Amazon. Good relationship with Amazon. In the future looking to acquire a US presence.
7. Chinese distributor strong until early 2020 (é7m sales in 2020). Hit with lockdown, large inventory, never recovered. Samarkand now in place who specialise taking European brands to China. VLG now deal with the UK people of Samarkand.
8. Overstocking. Hand sanitiser - over ordered during covid.
9. Margins. 3% hit to gross margin due to cost increases e.g. shipping costs. Now passed on customers as higher prices in 2022. Will we see margins above 40%? MD replies YES YES
10. Dentyl has ingredient called CPC. The research will be peer reviewed in 2022.
11. New product development. Innovating on existing products. More acquisitions around women’s health. Acquire weak brands and rebrand them using VLG’s brands e.g. Balance Active
Four levers to achieve synergies in acquisitions. 1. Strip costs out e.g. admin costs (+5% margin) 2. internalise manufacturing (+5% margin) 3. International Markets 4. New products. Leverage “substantial benefits”
12. Debt capacity in Jan 2022 - £5.5m includes lease obligations FRS16 – net debt is “considerably lower”. Scope for £50m inc accordian… can buy 2.5xPBT + what they’re buying.
13. "Expect 10% growth"
14. Existing manufacturing capacity to grow sales to £60-70m
VLG not escaping this week's market jitters - down almost 20% from recent highs.