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ben: it's a reasonable P/E ration for a going concern with FCF - the hypothesis I was using.
Is 10/1 PE ratio normal for a AIM mining company though?
antharry: small tweak but, with the latest equity issue, 1p would be around £145m, as we'll be up to about 14.5b shares when they're admitted to market. Merely to reinforce your point...
The company can get there with BPPM and the Carlibaba extension, on the basis of FCF and a very reasonable 10/1 PE ratio once debt on those projects is paid off. (BPPM alone would potentially do it, or come close.) So, conservatively, even without diamonds, and subject to finance, they will get there - but it would be 2 to 3 years.
Or we get more assets going in Romania / Chiadzwa to speed this up.
IMO.
mizman: "value at 1p and 2p".
IMO, we only hit 1p+ near term on a diamond spike.
We'll see what the BPPM JORC turns up in just a few days. In the meantime, going on the long-standing ballpark of $100m asset value estimate, that means:
1. $80m to Vast in the accounts, minus debt.
2. If the market attributes value on a going concern basis - as it might well do over the course of November / December - then we could well see 80% attributed, so M/Cap $64m minus debt.
3. Debt to Atlas currently stands at around $7.3m after we paid some interest plus $500k principal, so the net asset value, attributed at (say) 80% as a going concern, might well be around $56.7m.
4. That's about £45.36m.
5. At around 14.5b shares, that's an SP mid-price of 0.31 / 0.315, or about 0.29 / 0.3 on the bid.
Vast has been diluted to the point where the BPPM asset valuation is no longer much of a value driver here, unfortunately. So we need one or more of the following: (a) diamonds; (b) established FCF from BPPM so that M/Cap can go beyond the raw asset value on a P/E basis; (c) more assets in Romania delivering value through asset valuations or FCF.
It's been indicated that the re-finance is to cover a spectrum of projects, including more Romanian assets. That would potentially allow much more value to be attributed once we get a clearer picture of the Carlibaba extension value and other projects, e.g. a serious catch-up on Zagra.
So yes, throw in 2 or 3 more good assets, backed by a good-quality re-finance, and 1p looks much more serious.
Or a diamond spike.
SAndy - 1) waiting for November, new Aug/sep.. 2) agree that is entirely ok and industry standard.
Trust on this BOD has eroded to the level you doubt every move this lot makes. What lies ahead??
GL
Mizman - good luck.... :)
Fantasy:
1. "No one is lending these lot."
Well, let's see if we get the binding Term Sheet by end November, as the parties are "targeting".
2. "Why did they recruit Mr.Harvey who is also conveniently a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists?"
Craig Harvey has been with the company for some years now and has been COO for some time. It's quite normal to have a COO. And many explorers/miners do have a geologist on the Board, either as CEO, COO or some other role. This is perfectly normal.
Let's not drift into paranoia. No need. There's enough to grumble about as it is.
Yes someone is spouting a Fantasy. I doubt it's me, so I'll give you a clue.
What's your name?
sandy - yes shortly... next placement..
Mizman - you are in a fantasy world dreaming of 1p or 2p in vast. Under this incompetent leadership, the only way to achieve your targets is "consolidation". For goodness sake, look at what vast has delivered or achieved over the last 3 years? You have to look at why vast couldn't arrange finance for aladins cave? Why mercuria tranche2 fell through, now I don't believe what vast in the past. No one is lending these lot. Why did they recruit Mr.Harvey who is also conveniently a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists? What new story these lot are making up that you haven't seen in the last 3 years?
Shortly?
Yes all shareholders, including holders in the future, who will see value at 1p and 2p.
mizman: "It's time for AP to reward".
To reward shareholders please, not just himself.
1p, 2p and beyond is very possible for VAST. I don't think there is anyone who doesn't accept VAST have excellent resource. The issue has been development and lack of funds to exploit.
With refinance around the corner and steady profitable cashflows now landing, IMO its the time to hold and add. It's time for AP to reward.
Thanks starvest, like yourself i was waiting for the 1p or 2 party to arrive here after being invested here for such a long length of time. This recent placing was the final straw for me. Hope it works out for you and get the exit you thoroughly deserve.
Thanks fantasy... my biggest regret is not selling at 0.78p when i had the chance, kept waiting for the 2p party....lol after todays RNS whatever little faith i had, went up in smoke... ive been fortunate that ive had some good gains on GGP, OMI, EUA AND ODX which exceed what ive lost here. AP is like SS from Ukog who both like diluting shares and shafting shareholders in the process.
Apologies..." tired convoluted continues....."
D3lboy I am sorry to hear of your decision, I also thought of selling 2 years ago and I kick myself for not doing it on days like these. I can recover some of the loss from other shares I hold but feel why take a loss now not having made a switch to other potential shares where I could have made 5 figure gains. Only if we had a crystal ball; don't think I am that far off selling as well if the tirade convoluted comms continues. Hope things workout.
D3lboy - sorry to hear that you have lost money in vast.. I haven't bought vast in the last 18 months.. Had a significant holding 3-4 years ago, but sold 2/3rd of my holdings at 0.4p with 30% loss and sold most of the remaining at 0.20p in Jun-20.. Fortunately for me, made most of it back with other shares.. I hope it works out for you fella.. Never like to see someone losing.. GL
After the shambles of an RNS this morning, i sold my diluted to death shares in vast at a considerable loss... it was the final straw that broke the camels back , enough is enough...i was invested here for 3 years... good luck to all... PS: FANTASY , youve been bang on the money