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Lol.. Looks like Rightback's in a bit of trouble with time soon running out. Nothing has landed today so far, may need to get lucky at 7 tomorrow.
Bound to give up a bit of ground as each day goes by without news - FUD will set in
RB, who do you use for L2 info if I ask?
Ho and re the town hall ive still another days grace, i did say one or two days if you look back. ha.
A shake on this morning on no volume yet again.
L2's good 2 v 1 move back easy on a few buys.
September is getting shorter (just sayin) I’ll say it
You wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend lol
Morning BaxtersSoup, good ponits.
I certainly would like to see £1 and£1+ I think the question is what will precipitate that and when.
A steady flow of updates on products could deliver that for sure, but as far as I am aware the only imminent news is due on 201.
Not saying higher values won't materialise only that life changing jumps in SP might not happen on the 201 news alone.
Buy on the rumor and sell on the news, but maybe not on the first news when it comes to VAL.?
Bankfool, good reasoning on valuation but don’t forget......
the massive cost cutting exercise
streamlining of the IP
healthy cash balance and
developments such as:
301 trials with a pharma which should lead to a deal.
This excludes 201 potential soon with headlines this Q and detail next Q
Also 401, with financing from Black Cat which is another capital stream for no VAL outlay.
If the glove fits then l can see +£1 in Q3/4
Hi sharegnomie, I think estimation is hard.
That said we were at 3.5p immediately post consolation
We were around 7.5p after G and S we removed as directors.
Fundimentally nothing has changed in terms of the products.
The bigger changes are in the way the company is being run (no longer an company inhospitable to investment)
The recent rises do appear to anticipate good 201 results,
If we think 201 results alone are a 10 bag result then:
I would say a low estimate for SP on 201 news would be 35p +- 5p
High estimate 75p +- 5p
Well that's my approach to valuation.
Note I haven't valued the IP at all
Surprised if I see any alternative valuations today based on anything else other than picking a number.
Looking forward to news soon gla
Well if we know it has to be before the last day of the month and we get close to that, then I can see the price starting to rise.
we could get another investor like Adam Hargreaves pop up and take a position that might get the price going but we will have to see. If any one is going to get in it will have to be very soon.
I have been trying to work out what I think the company would be worth if the news is good on 201 but there is 301 and 401 and the combinations of these. So if none are any good the share price drops and we all go home poorer. That has the same chance as all 3 being a complete success the most likely is 2 out of 3 being successful, but which two?
So I think the thing to do is try and work out a value based on 201 then see where we end up, and is a JV part of the calculation? The only way I can see of coming up with a value is to base it on what a similar company is worth and from what I can see that's about 50 - 60 m, but if we add a JV then it could be a lot more.
Any one else having a problem trying to estimate the value?
Agree, happy to sit tight at 25p until 201 x 2, 301, 401 and BC201 news before year end.
I agree boys and girls, people have taken their positions, and now waiting. Unless this goes to the wire (last day of the month), or a leak, I don't see where major movement will come from. On news day, hopefully we will be at £1 ;);)
Christ! a good question, the most profitable answer is when we have had news on everything in the pipeline I guess ?
Which news do we sell on?
I think the few days leading up to Friday 25 Sep will be very interesting if we haven't heard in the near future but is this a "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" situation?
I am inclined to agree with you, it looks like we have reached a level where “most“ are happy until news..
I was originally thinking mid 30’s but looks like we are settling for mid 20’s?
I wonder if grace has named that pooch yet?
Not sure about FOMO Friday. The volume has been tailing off which I would suggest indicates that people are generally happy with thier respective positions. SP seems pretty stable so I think we will just hover around 25p till the news lands.
If no RNS this week, going to be a crazy FOMO FRIDAY heading into the weekend!
The asked Suzy the following question via email yesterday -Can i ask do we have any idea when we are due an update or timescales of the Japanese tests on 301 and how long these are likely to take place before any up dates?
Within 5 minutes i received this reply -
Thanks for your question, and for your positive feedback! Following our communications protocol, I’ve added your question to the listfor the next Q&A session, and I’ll send you an email to let you know when the answer has been published.
I find her such a approachable, honest person. Whether she can answer much on that front, probably not but worth a shot to try and gauge how long they have been told these tests will take.
Thanks gmcc, I found a lot (really a lot of others), but many similar studies have been hospital or university based in Japan, so some major sifting needed To get the commercial affiliates or funding partners. If I get the chance again, I will sit down with a fine tooth comb and magnifying glass. Something to do while watching this unnatural horizontal saw tooth pattern in the intradays!
Good Morning @ force10 et al : undisclosed Japanese pharmaceutical company - endometriosis ?
Did find this company not on your list ( just a stab in the dark ) - article below researching endometriosis - just a stab in the dark
"Traditional Japanese Medicine Eased Endometriosis Pain in Mice"
"Of note, two of the study’s authors are employees of Tsumira & Co., a pharmaceutical company that makes Kampo-based medicines."
VAL301, the same peptide ingredient as VAL201, is being investigated for the treatment of women with endometriosis in the preclinical stage of development.
The Company announced on 1 May 2020 that a Material Transfer Agreement was signed with an undisclosed Japanese pharmaceutical company, which is carrying out laboratory-based evaluations using their own processes to determine whether to enter a licensing agreement with ValiRx for further development of the project.
Endometriosis is defined as the presence of endometrium-like tissue outside the uterus. The disease is common, affecting 10% of reproductive age women and 40% of women seeking infertility evaluation. Until recently, obstetricians and gynecologists had been unaware of the potential risks during pregnancy of patients with endometriosis
New to the board, so this may have been covered in the past re 301, but this article dated June ish this year, shows the top 10 pharma in Japan, with a little dossier of their specialities. I cannot cross reference enough about 301 to eliminate candidates to narrow this list down with confidence (for example, is it ok to remove true western pharma from the list, if so then there are 6 Japanese companies remains, or....maybe Val were approached by a smaller firm, not in the top 10, but that doesn’t seem likely) and maybe the narrow down task would be fruitless, but this may help someone with a keen eye, and better skills than me to share an insight, and it may be satisfying to know that the partner could be in this list!
Well if you look at SD’s linkedIn page she has over 500 connections so could be anybody!
I guess as an Oncology / Bio specialist attending seminars etc., she will similar pro’s all over the world so she is def in the right circles.
Found this which is interesting:
ST would certainly be interested to see if you can find any Japanese links or Japanese names appearing on Dr Dilly's LinkedIn page or wherever you have seen top pharma guys liking Dr Dilly's posts..This might be like fishing in the Dead Sea, but at the moment the whole 301 arrangement sounds so secretive it may actually be quite exciting to get any hints from anywhere of who we might be dealing with.
they didn't necessarily stay on until the end of the trial but completed whatever cohort or cohorts they were in. They have sufficient evidence from each patient.