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Cheers Bebeto thanks. The Cenkos & Optiva papers give a good snapshot and agreed there will be developments to come changing the picture levistubbs - the Colter licence expires in early 21 so i would assume that'll be quietly handed back to the OGA and the adjacent PEDL's i think only run to next summer (?) - all the sunk costs for these were written off in 2019's accounts. Waddock X has a few years left for them to get something away. We'll have to see what they do with Zeta, whether they ultimately try and flip it Crown style or run with it... for balance, the last holder of the Zeta licence handed it back to the OGA as they weren't keen on it post tech review.
Yes it would be good to get the divestment sorted and move the Dorset assets on, although I don't think there will be many companies eager to take them. It's a pity Colter wasn't a little more convincing.
Nice posts Badger 99, I suspect they'll be one possibly two further developments before the end of the year, which will have an impact on next year's balance sheet. I think we have enough exploration on our hands so that leaves divestment and or something operational.
GingerHippo - FYI, Cenkos are supporting that c.£5m profit figure for 2019. Group 2020 estimated PBT $4.8m. Corporate G&A will be c. $1m-$1.5m, so Egypt is forecast at c.$6m. Looks like Cenkos' 2020 figures are for 12 months rather than just post deal signing as it seems a bit high for 10 months. Group 2021 estimate PBT $7m based on oil at $44pb - looks a bit lean for 3k boepd so i'm assuming they've included a slight chokeback at El-Sam5 and/or some general Egyptian well depletion in their financial model. Also the Italy start date will impact of course. I dont have access to the full paper to try and answer some of my Q's around their assumptions and UOG don't appear to have permission to reproduce the paper on their website (they only have Optiva's) Extract below with a hat tip to Delboi https://twitter.com/DelBoiAIM/status/1280775088195977217/photo/2 ATB
Once RKH are done and I have no idea how long that will take and results are decent then there's no reason why 8p cannot be met this year early next I ignore broker targets like 17p discount them by 50%
It's a familiar story Levi, I was paying out the equivalent of three mortgages and underwater in the shares and said to myself "if I do the same as other investors then why would my results be any different" so I changed everything when one of my longs came in, I'm currently in three shares all of which is invested with generated profits and I'm mortgage free. You can beat this market and there's a lot of money to be made. This share has real potential to become mid-tier company within 5yrs, you maybe underwater now but patience is your best weapon.
'If he does raise equity shareholders will gain'? What like the last one and the one before that. My average is over 4p for a reason and each equity raising since the 5p one has been down and long term shareholders haven't gained. The only one's to have gained are those that took a punt in the 1s and early 2s and those flipping the raisings. The hope is shareholders will gain but history is telling a different story at the moment.
I would be happy for him to get us past 4p at the moment, at least then I would be almost back in profit, but as each piece of good news and volume is sold in to by 'whoever' then I don't see it happening soon.
Am not keen on him in all honesty think his coffers are being filled but not ours plenty of directors shagging the hddrs to fill up over long periods of time on AIM let's hope BL gets us past 7p again for starters
Of course it is undervalued, any idiot can see that but unfortunately some companies have a habit of remaining that way and one sure fire way to do that is to keep diluting and diluting poorly. Hopefully Brian has learnt a few lessons and here on in we can start to increase shareholder value and not just increase the mkt cap by issuing more shares.
He is doing a good job but far from the perfection some are placing on the wee man's shoulders. At the end of the day he will be judged by shareholders on how much of a return he makes for them and at the moment he is failing on that on all counts. For me he made a mistake of moving from the main list to Aim. That should have been a big red flag for me but I believed him when he said they needed to do. Of course understandably it was so he could issue confetti to get his deals across the line. But most companies when doing a transformational deal come back to the market stronger, see Sqz for a start, but we came back significantly lower after Larkin could only get 3p away even though he had persuaded BP to come in on the deal, blaming all sorts of problems for the low raising. And from that we have never recovered. We have had too many shares issued in to loose hands in a short space of time and we have a 114m overhang from Rkh. Now as much as we are producing 3000bpd and have other decent assets we can't get the mkt cap to hold above £20m. So all though he has done well let's not go patting him on the back until he makes us some decent money. There is every chance that the king of blarney may roll the dice again for another project and set the confetti printing machine going again while we are still flailing about below 4p and below many people's averages.
Lets be clear BL has no way of controlling the SP. He is ruining a business and so far he has delivered on everything he has said, which for aim says alot We as investors are looking for undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals. If you believe in the company you should be buying at these levels rather than moaning. The true value will come and the longer it stays at these levels the more chance it will over shoot
We have a transformationial deal in the way of Egypt, 0 - 3000 bopd in under a year with 3 more drills due in the short term
100% of the high risk but extremely high reward Jamaica, even a sniff of oil hear and this SP shoot into the stratosphere
Selva coming online within a year
We are a cash generating machine and the patient will be rewarded
Bryan has a very good point with producing 3000 BOEPD and the MCAP of just £18M. There's other AIM listed oilers not producing anything or very little in comparison and their MCAP's are over double ours.!
Seriously undervalued and happy to carry on accumulating, knowing the balance sheet will correct the future shareprice.