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First off Greg Peck I didn't 'bring up zen' and I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
Secondly I am going along with the directors when it comes to Jamaica simply because I'm not arrogant enough to pretend to know more about the oil and gas industry.
You are questioning not only their rationale but even that there's any chance of getting a jv off the ground! That is why I have the right to ask what are your credentials.
I think you've also answered the question like someone earlier, you too have zero credentials when it comes to the oil and gas industry yet that doesn't stop you telling us day in and day out what the company should be doing and where they're going wrong.
As bebeto posted earlier, we know from more than one rns that various entities are as we speak doing due diligence on the Walton Morant basin but of course you know better than all those too.
Finally I welcome all opinions but when I hear opinions that make no sense I will question them and their motives.
Third line from bottom should be Jamaica btw ! Lol.
So my first million. First of all you brought up zen. I have not mentioned it on this board, but as you have yes very nice performance, up 50 percent in the last few weeks. A nice play.
In terms of ‘what qualifications do I have’
What do you have?
This is a discussion board.. legally it’s pretty much on a par with a discussion down the pub. So maybe bear that in mind.
In terms of your more general point around Jamaica. It’s just an opinion. Personally I think they are way out of their depth. They picked up that license at a time when things were changing but they have well and truly moved on.
Just look at the prospect as well. It’s up to 2.4bn barrels but there are a lot of prospects to drill, that’s a hell of a lot of semi submersible activity, FPSO, tie backs, a govt with no existing oil infrastructure. It’s just not attractive in my eyes. Clearly the board will want to make something of it but for me it’s just throwing money away. They will probably end up spending over a million usd on Jamaica for nothing. That’s a deviated well in Egypt.
They need to be raising their sights but Jamaica is just too far. They are not a credible partner and it’s way above any of their comfort levels. Yea they might get lucky but that’s what it will be. Lucky.
I would suggest they put that cash into the war chest and go after another low volume licence with opportunity to scale in a proven basin where it’s too small for the big boys but great for uog. That’s where I see them.
And that is not supposed to be derogatory just common sense.
Egypt for me is a wombat project
Waste of money brains and time.
Hope that’s clear.
From 26th July RNS: Regarding Egypt
"are actively working with Joint Venture Partners to agree the optimum long-term strategy for the development of the licence's potential."
So as far as the Abu Sennan concession goes they'll have the capex figures for roughly the next 5yrs.
With them in mind, the company will be in a good position to increase its asset portfolio, most likely another producing asset and another exploration. IMO
myfirstmillion you really should be less emotional and take the time to read what people write.
Oil has not had it's day but certainly is in it's twilight years. As I said if you had cared to read there are lots of mature fields with existing infrastructure that have enough oil to see us through to where we must transition.
Of course it's a gut feeling but based on what is happening in the world.
I sincerely hope I am wrong.
Bebeto yes I am sure there have been people in the data room but translating that in to a deal is a different thing. Fingers crossed for a good outcome.
So you have zero experience this is just a gut feeling based upon your notion that oil and gas has had it's day. Surely begs the question why you're invested in an oil and gas company doesn't it? Wouldn't you be better suited to some green energy company?
From the 26th July RNS: Regarding Jamaica.
"and the formal farm-out campaign for the Walton Morant licence commenced in early April, with a number of companies currently conducting evaluations"
To get that statement passed the Nomad , they must have provided them of evidence that a number of companies are currently conducting evaluations otherwise it wouldn't have been allowed to be put there.
Whether or not that would translate to a J/V is another matter but it does confirm there is a real interest in the Walton Morant project.
myfirstmillion I don't have anymore experience than you do to suggest it will be a goer.
But what I will say is the company have to keep making the right noises and keep trying, I would expect nothing less.
But those of us who have been here long enough will know the company has form. I listened to a CC many years ago that suggested we would be re-entering Waddock Cross in the coming year. It never happened and that was long before Egypt came along.
Look if there had have been any appetite from larger Oilers do you think lil' ol' united would have been offered 100%.
Surely even you can see that the appetite for such new projects in the oil arena has deteriorated and continues to deteriorate by the day especially when there are many very mature oil fields left to be drained with infrastructure in place.
I don't consider my view negative but realistic and like I said I would be happy for a positive outcome in whatever form. Although I do understand on here that anything other than waving the company flag at every turn is negative.
Levi I asked Greg Peck what qualified him over and above the directors. Since you interjected in a similarly negative way (very unlike you ;) I'll ask you the same question.
What qualifies you that we should believe that you know better than the directors of this company with their combined vast documented experience and many successes to date over a bulletin board poster that has shared consistently negative opinions for years?
This although slightly tongue in cheek is a genuine question. If you explain to me that you have experience above and beyond our directors combined efforts and can prove a track record as good as theirs then I will sit up and take note.
I would much sooner the company concentrate efforts on getting the best out of Egypt and Italy and find new producing assets that fit the companies criteria.
myfirstmillion although I wouldn't go as far as to say that Jamaica is pie in the sky you must surely admit that the odds are against that project and those odds are getting slimmer by the day and after each climate related disaster.
I can't understand how any oiler however big would want to risk the huge financial burden of setting up a new oil play in such a sensitive part of the world which probably won't produce a drop of oil until the latter part of this decade and have a payback over the following 20yrs.
That is why I have said any positive outcome, however small will be a bonus because as it stands that project is flying in the face of public and government opinion which is increasing daily.
Re it's nice to see pecker has taken time out from ramping the hell out of zen to post crap on here again with as usual no facts to back it up.he must be bored
"Jamaica is just pie in the sky and a waste of resources"
Totally disagree with that. The directors of our company have vast combined experience running oil companies, creating and getting deals signed, looking after cash flow, mergers and acquisitions, etc.and they feel the exact opposite. What credentials do you have Greg Peck to support your claim?
Yea, they have indicated ( verbally) that there could be over 60m barrels to go after in Egypt. If they develop a long term high intensity drilling schedule then we will all find out. Tbh that’s always been what I have thought they should be doing. 2 years multi rig assault on Egypt and build a war chest for a similar prospect. Jamaica js just pie in the sky and a waste of resources.
Thanks Greg. I do do my research on oil stocks, but find UOG a bit complicated. They quote 3U 57.8m, I guess it’s around that figure.
Well this well according to uog was tapping into an untrained part of the field but it was classed as development not exploration so normally would not add to reserves as they are simply extracting what they believe is there ( ie it’s not an exploration well like the next one which will add to the reserves if it comes in ). But if you believe Brian and it exceeds the previous drill estimates ( which should be in line with the cpr etc ) then there could well be an upwards revision to p1 and p2 reserves because there is more oil in that area than they expected.
Thanks Greg. So whatever amount of barrels, it’s ‘part of’ the overall 3P or 3U quoted, not extra added reserves?
It depends in which oil horizon it’s present, what the permeability is, how far it extends etc etc. But it’s a very decent ‘pay zone’
As it’s a deviated well it’s also highly likely to flow at a very substantial rate.
Though it sounds stupid, but can someone please explain ‘40m MD of net oil pay’? How much more this adds to the reserves? I know it’s good news but I don’t quite understand how good it is :)
They are probably looking at a multi rig drilling schedule for Egypt. That would actually make sense.
Re reading seems to suggest those figures as totals for Abu sennan with uog taking 22% . However with the article saying reserves do not yet reflect the 2021 drilling campaign of 5 successfully drills including the great result at ASH-3 . I think we can expect a substantial increase in reserves on completion of this years drilling campaign ?
Lots to be excited about here with imminent flow results and the extra drill added which will run our drilling campaign into September whilst oil remains very strong over $75 . Sooner or later I Believe a substantial re rate will occur .. Cenkos core NAV of 6.2p being a good 1st target .
3P 7.6m
3U 57.8m x 0.22 = 12.716m
Does sound like it doesn’t it. But I’m not sure if there will be more upgrade with further drilling, it sounds like that’s the max estimate for the whole Abu field? Worth emailing and ask? Does anyone have a more definite answer?
I’m reading as net to uog but not certain ,here is the source from sharecast news .
United Oil & Gas updated the market on the Abu Sennan concession, onshore Egypt on Wednesday, reporting that an independent reserves and resources report, relevant to the end of 2020, indicated a "material increase" in reserves.
The AIM-traded firm holds a 22% working interest in the licence, which is operated by Kuwait Energy Egypt.
It reported a 24% increase in gross 2P reserves to 16.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, from 13.5 million barrels at the start of 2020, representing a near-200% reserves replacement ratio, before the recent drilling success at the ASH-3 and ASD-1X wells.
Gross 1P reserves, meanwhile, were up by 59% to 6.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, and gross 3P reserves were 21% higher at 34.7 million barrels.
The board said "significant" additional growth opportunities were evaluated in the report, noting 21 exploration prospects, many with multiple reservoir targets.
"It is really pleasing to see the Abu Sennan assets continuing to perform so strongly, and so consistently, with a reserves replacement ratio of over 190% for the second year in a row," said chief executive officer Brian Larkin.
"We remain confident that the Licence has much more to offer, and indeed, these upgraded reserve numbers take no account of the successes already achieved so far during the 2021 drilling campaign."
Larkin said the report "significantly" increased the company's understanding of the potential of the asset, pointing to 21 potential exploration targets.
"With further development drilling due to commence shortly at Al Jahraa, and further development and exploration targets identified across the licence, we are looking forward to further news flow and growth from Abu Sennan, both in the coming months and in the longer-term."
Thanks K3. These are Uog’s net? So the whole Abu’s 3P is 157m? As in 34.7/0.22 = 157
On top with further exploration?