Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
To invest mostly in operating UK wind farms with the aim to provide investors with an annual dividend that increases in line with RPI inflation while preserving the capital value of its investment portfolio.
Find out MoreLondon South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wind solar and hydro shouldn’t be impacted a lot unless prices are heavily impacted by demand. There may be delays in construction of new sites and potentially there could be parts issues I guess. But Maintenance wind farm teams have been identified as key workers, my mate is skipper on transfer vessel and they are sanitising the ship 5 times a day. I’d like to see large scale BESS projects integrated into the grid to balance the network without need for fossil generation.
Thanks Bumbling for the reference. It's a great point, with regards to how some energy providers (like biomass) are contingent upon broader supply chain in order to operate. Wind, solar & hydro much less so I'd expect.
Stob RNS today states they are having trouble fulfilling biomass orders due to reduction in activity
Posted this also on TRIG... Thoughts?
Worth taking a note of monthly consumption data distributed by national grid: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/166976/download
21966 GWh used in March, down 12.3% from 25032.71 GWh used in February. Renewables are down as a sector, but not specifically due to coronavirus. We need to bear in mind that that (as per recent TRIG RNS) wind generation for Jan & Feb were at significantly higher levels than normal, whereas March was less windy in general.
My reading is that whilst energy demand is noticeably lower as result of spring coming, quarantining and industry slow down (folks see the PMI data, wow!!??) renewable energy seems to be coping ok at the moment. I'd like to think that they'd scale back carbon intensive sources of energy before clean energy. And I think we can see that happening . Coal performance about halved. Nuclear also seems scaled back. Whereas hydro and biomass are business as normal, and wind/solar etc varying according to weather (which is biz as normal also, no?). Perhaps main competition will be gas
Anyone else observing anything?
Agree with your comments JTS, good area to be in and they have acquired a fair few wind farms over the last 12 months. Also the forward prices for their electricity is covered. The sp has just followed the rest of the market it’s concerns over the virus.
Well, seems that probability of getting those top ups at close to a pound are long gone now....
Recognise that Slieve Divena was agreed in Feb, but also a positive that UKW is seeking to honour growth agreements and not needing to defer or reserve cash. A further positive indicator I feel
This has started to re-rate nicely. Anticipate some rockiness over the next couple of weeks as people adjust portfolios for end of year. Equally, last time I anticipated some decline we went up around 10%. Think this will gain renewed interest come next dividend installments
Seems to be about as safe as they come
Morning Beevorma, certainly a reasonable concern to have. Much uncertainty over the impact that low oil prices will have on energy prices. Equally, I wonder how much of that will be passed on? OFGEM has price capped energy prices for a while (hence why shares like Centrica are in perpetual decline). I would suspect that there may be more competition at the supply chain level, but don't expect to see this to find it's way down to the consumer...'much'
According to the RNS provided yesterday, I suspect this to be safe for at least the next 12 months. Wind generation is up significantly, to the point where that should off-set any uncertainty in the energy price - which are also forecasted to be somewhat stable for rest of this year despite the decline in oil prices... I think I read somewhere it can take 6+ months for pricing to filter through, cause it takes as long to travel along the supply chain, or something like that.
I'm not sure about to what degree, but if you take a look at TRIGs RNS yesterday, they comment that - yes, prices are down slightly but looking to recover for rest of the year - they however have 75% hedged, including value of subsidy. UKW will also have certain measures in place to safeguard against any sudden price decline.
Main risks to me at the moment are sourcing of components necessary for maintenance which could potentially result in lower production efficiency or some turbines being taken offline. For example, VESTAS is shut down, and they account for around 28% of the turbines used by UKW... equally, I envisage all of that as temporary
Yesterdays jump up shows how quickly things can move once this virus situation settles. I'm expecting us to drop back down again (although nice Director buy at 108p could slow that decline) and will be adding at anything close to or under a pound
i do like this stock, it's been on my watchlist for a while, my only concern is the current low oil prices but i think this is a feel-good share to have as well as a good long term investment because of the returns
Highly reassuring update today. Whole market does seem to be up, so positive across the board. Anticipate that this may be a short lived spike up, but could be nearing the end of the steep declines
As you say @Lurka, whole sector is down. In a sense, it is promising, as it's obviously not a problem unique to UKW - such as a couple of fields having gone offline without news breaking out. Hopefully it's nothing major - like slashing of pricing.
Considering slightly more, perhaps most likely funds deleveraging broader sectors. 'Energy' as a whole has been crippled, and renewables comes under the broader bracket of energy. There will certainly be some funds selling us off due to portfolio rebalancing. For example, 10% of portfolio in energy stocks must be ESG type. As broader energy sector got hammered, our percentage of the portfolio rises and then fund is forced to sell off some to rebalance. Not only this, many funds may just be selling off energy full stop.
Again, only conjecture... maybe we shall never know. Just hopeful that it's all temporary and that this will be back to 1.20+ by year end
Thats interesting. I emailed Costello in the Times but he didnt know of a reason. Possibly very cheap gas would make gas generators produce really cheap electricity. It doesnt really add up though. Like you say, wait and see
Thats interesting. I emailed Costello in the Times but he didnt know of a reason. Possibly very cheap gas would make gas generators produce really cheap electricity. It doesnt really add up though. Like you say, wait and see
And the drop continues...
Have been doing some searching online to see possible reasons why (beyond selling off to cover losses elsewhere).
1) Both VESTAS and SGRE in Spain have shut down. Whether out of protest or response to the virus, it is possible that UKW IIs are fearing something similar happening in the UK.
2) Somewhat informative article here (https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1677028/coronavirus-creating-considerable-downside-risk). You can register freely to read. It's connecting to a Bloomberg piece of research into global wind farms, noting (A) supply chain disruptions that will impact both development and maintenance, as well as (B) potential personnel challenges caused by the virus, meaning staff to service the farms might be negatively impacted.
Combined, there is probability of existing farms not being able to achieve stable production, as well as potential for new developments to fall behind schedule.
I've not seen anything directly relating to competition for electricity. For example, whether or not drop in oil price will make traditional electricity channels cheaper and either reduce demand for wind farm energy or impact pricing out of a price war type battle.
Some informative insights, but still doesn't match up to me... Guess that there is also the fact that once selling has started, there is a general environment of fear and cash seems to be king at the moment. A 7% dividend doesn't fair well when faced in context of large capital loss.
Equally, assuming virus situation is sorted out this year, then assets and supply chains should quickly bounce back and this should be back up to where it was at the beginning of the year... Arguably, SP should be higher as dividend yield will be even more competitive with other high payers (oilies, financiers etc) being decimated
Hmmm.... let's see
Lets hope so
Likely people selling off this to cover losses / margins elsewhere. Perhaps also people speculating on higher growth opportunities elsewhere with this recent crash... Can only speculate as to what others are doing and their reasons for it.
SP is now below the last stated NAV (although noting that NAV is down 1.5% this past year). This should limit further drops
Hello Senior Brian, i am puzzled by the share drop too. TRIG & FSFL look much the same. Bit worrying. Cannot think of reason
Not much feedback on this share recently... why the larger drop today? I cannot find any reason.