Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Ocelot
'It is for each investor and potential investor to arrive at their own conclusion.'
Absolutely spot on !
Too many on here have been centre stage for years with Act One, Scene One 'The Nagatives', with endless encores and requests for yet more of 'The Negatives'.
Along come a few people with a different opinion about a fairly new development and some won't allow themselves to believe it could succeed and others despise that someone could see if differently to what they're used to.
I get it. Thankfully,, I haven't had to sit there for years whining and moaning and in candour, wouldn't have chosen that option anyway.
Day after day of endless criticism of an investment they chose to make, a ridiculous scenario, almost borderline foolish.
If they think their constant doom and gloom sniping posts have no effect on their own financial prospects, they need to rethink.
This stock is driven by PI interest, not institutions. It's like anything else that someone is considering to throw money at.
My better half is regularly looking at items for the house, sofas, pictures, ornaments, etc.
'I really like this one, it looks great, I nearly bought it but the majority of reviews are bad, so I'm going give it a miss' .... a sentence she often uses, or similar.
These negative posts they keep spewing out are the same, they're 'reviews', read by other PI's .... and then they sit there frustrated at the share price performance to date, day after day, and moan some more.
Truly self defeating and self harming.
Anyway, there's only so much time I wish to devote to debating with negative types and I'm now going to enjoy the rest of my day away from it.
:o)
Penguins
Many thanks. My computer says no if I try to find the source document but it downloaded in 2s using internet download manager. Better not say what version of windows I am using but it does not update!!! Not sure it would even run version 10.
Wizard
I am unaware of any injection or EOR techniques used by AME but then again they are not always the operator of their farm ins.
Ibug,
pdf is:-
http://docs.petform.org.tr/docs/scout_reports_18112020.pdf
Takes a while to download.
Unfortunately UKOG so far haven't been very good at spreading risk - effectively buying out partners - probably because they were the only comp[any interested - rather than farming out - dumping the risk on shareholders - for the first well and seismic in Turkey they are carrying all the risk. Well done AME!
AME have 88% of E Sadak - is it another indication of perception by other companies.
Ibug
Do you know if any of the AME wells use water injection, flooding or fracking to enhance production.
Ninetails
That's exactly why I see it as a positive change.
Possibly 'dragged along' to success in Turkey by AME.
That, and of course, the rapidly improved speed of progress, without the Uk Councils and Uk objectors and also the lower operating costs in Turkey.
ZYX
Sitting on a licence for four years prior to doing any seismics or drilling can be considered to be licence banking. Are you suggesting that all licences in Turkey are drilled in the first year ? In the same way, property developers can sit on planning approved land for three years prior to putting any of the footings down.
http://www.sayergroup.com/eng/conn.asp?company=gy&page=ispindika
http://www.sayergroup.com/eng/conn.asp?company=tmo&page=ispindika
Old websites with companies run by the Sayer brothers.
That's what AME do for all of their licences, as do GYP, they share the risk .... and equally, the reward on success.
GYP and AME even share the risk on certain licences, with 25% each.
It's commercially sensible despite you wishing to believe it's to the negative I agree with that post, that appears to be their(AME) strategy half the risk and half the reward, but we as UKOG shareholder are not familiar with the CEO being commercially sensible we had partners that were sharing the risk, until he decided to buy them all out, and for what ? Around 70million spent for between 100 and 200bopd.
RollingInit: "It doesn't concern me that AME have sat on licences for years, before developing them, or 'licence banking', in the same way that property developers 'land bank' to develop at a later date."
No, 'land banking' in the way that you imply does not happen in the oil industry.
When the initial licence is granted by the Govt, it is for a set period of time (usually 3 or 5 years) for a defined work programme (seismic and/or drilling) to be performed in that licence period.
If the exploration program is not successful, at the end of the licence period you can apply for an extension (again with further work commitments) or give up the licence.
If the exploration program is successful, depending upon the regulatory regime in place, you normally have to give up a % of the licence area and commit to a further work program for appraisal (more seismic / wells) in a set time frame (normally 3 years) and then you have to commit to either developing what you have found (i.e. FID)or giving up the licence altogether.
The only way a Company can hang onto a license area after that is if the Country is desperate for production and nobody else is interested in the license area...
Nomlungu
'always look for what is not said amongst what is said'
I agree.
Ukog did say:
'Bukat geological feature (anticline) extends into application block'
What Ukog didn't say:
'The prospects in the Ispandika-Bukat area have a recoverable reserve potential, of well-over 200 million bbl of 27º API crude oil. Average depth of the prospects is in the order of 7,000 feet.'
So, you're,right, look out for what Ukog haven't said .... but maybe it would have been good for them to do so.
:o)
Penguins
No rhyme or reason for dates of meetings.
12th SCOUT MEETING 18th November 2020
11th SCOUT MEETING 19th December 2019
10th SCOUT MEETING 3rd May 2019
9th SCOUT MEETING 20th September 2018
8th SCOUT MEETING 3rd May 2017
7th SCOUT MEETING 21st December 2016
6th SCOUT MEETING 6th April 2016
5th SCOUT MEETING 12th October 2015
4th SCOUT MEETING 30th June 2015
3rd SCOUT MEETING 15th January 2015
2nd SCOUT MEETING 30th September 2014
1st SCOUT MEETING 29th May 2014
I have nothing for 2017 or 2018 and still stuck finding the last one. Google translate doesn't help when the translated word changes on the use of a capital letter in some cases!!!
Math
That's what AME do for all of their licences, as do GYP, they share the risk .... and equally, the reward on success.
GYP and AME even share the risk on certain licences, with 25% each.
It's commercially sensible despite you wishing to believe it's to the negative.
Penguins,
Flows may well reduce over time, but, at an oil price of about $63, significant cash can be generated if the oil flow starts at a relatively high level.
Ame's view of the prospects are they aren't prepared to spend a penny on it, but give away 50% whilst UKOG fund the seismic and initial drill. They dont seem confident of success.
Ocelot,
'Wells on East Sadak have flowed at 1,300 bopd'
But why won't UKOG quote what the wells flow during production, over a period of time?
Perhaps because the whole field was producing at an average of 421bopd - the whole field - in September 2020 from multiple wells.
I would take actual production figures given out by AME at a scout group meeting over initial rates or OIP, or even recoverable resources quoted with minimal information.
More importantly Penguins, you have as much understanding as I do about O + G in Turkey, so you can cut the pretence at being an armchair specialist.
However, AME, who Ukog have partnered with, have a lifetime of understanding of O + G in Turkey.
Call me old fashioned, but I'll give AME's views the benefit of the doubt over and above the views of a gaggle of disillusioned anonymous posters.
Penguins
And I get it that you along with many others can cut and paste or refer to websites with information to try to present to the negative.
Pot, kettle ....
Rolllingint,
We get it you can cut and paste and won't look beyond the PR. Same happened at HH and BB.
There's usually a very good reason that an area is under explored in a region where 100's of producing fields have been discovered over the decades according to AME.
Look at the presentation for the new licences, seismic and wells aplenty to the north west then just the odd stab here and there, and as ibug pointed out the area was recently under licence.
My guess would be the main, shallower target, the Garzan is too shallow which is why the deeper Mardin is hoped for as a viable target.
Ibug
Of course there will be. Are all licences developed in year one ?
There is no licence banking in Turkey. You drill and produce or lose it. They have 5 years which is why the additional 4 licences became available at the end of last year.
Wells on East Sadak have flowed at 1,300 bopd
from naturally fractured and dolomitized
Cretaceous Mardin limestones (slide 11 of the 23/07/20 presentation)
Mirasol
'the high rates would be in the early years'
Great ! Perfect scenario for Ukog then, because if they were successful, they have high production rates for the early years on that analogy, which would put the initial BOPD's much higher.
:o)
Penguins
The point being made is that the whole region, and also near to and next to Ukogs Licence area is highly prospective and largely under explored. Additionally, in the region where 100's of producing fields have been discovered over the decades according to AME.
It doesn't concern me that AME have sat on licences for years, before developing them, or 'licence banking', in the same way that property developers 'land bank' to develop at a later date.
Cem Sayer is no spring chicken, so he may now be looking for a few 'swan songs' as a legacy, just like his father. The whole family is wrapped up in O + G in Turkey, his relative Ecvet Sayer heads GYP in Turkey. They, as a family, firmly believe that Turkey hosts light oil fields the size of Iraq.
Further, for any of us here to purport to be 'armchair' O + G analysts or specialists, with assumptions to the positive or negative, in relation to Turkey, in addition to information being harder to gain than if it were in the Uk, is totally unrealistic.
I do, however, have a far greater trust in the views and analysis of O + G operators, who have spent their whole life analysing the area, such as AME, renowned for their expertise within Turkey and internationally.
And, particular to the Ukog licence area below.
' Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.'
_____
The license covers 305 sq km of the southeast Anatolian basin, a geological continuation of the Zagros fold-belt petroleum system within the foothills of the Taurus-Zagros mountains in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.
The undeveloped Basur oil discovery and Resan oil pay, both within the license's Cretaceous Mardin limestones, contain an aggregate unrisked gross mean oil in place (OIP) of about 253 million bbl, with a significant high case (P10) gross aggregate OIP of 495 million bbl.
An undrilled exploration target in the shallower Garzan limestones, Prospect A, adds further unrisked upside OIP potential of between 68-112 million bbl in the mean and high case (P10), respectively.
Future oil production will be exported via road tanker to the nearest oil refinery at Batman, some 80 km from the license.
UKOG will fund 100% of the first commitment well plus a small 2D seismic survey. UKOG’s net expenditure for the one well plus seismic program is capped at $5 million. Thereafter, the company will fund its 50% interest share, expected to be about $1.5 million per well.
_____
They are focusing on the Mardin limestones but do have Prospect A in the Garzan limestones in the Resan licence area:
An undrilled exploration target in the shallower Garzan limestones, Prospect A, adds further unrisked upside OIP potential of between 68-112 mmbbl in the mean and high case (P10), respectively. (RNS of 23/07/20 and slide 9 of the presentation of the same date).
https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/Turkey%20RNS%20Slide%20Pack%20FINAL%20220720.pdf
Rollinginit - yes the average rates are high but one of those fields has been on production for 75 years - the high rates would be in the early years - its probably down to a hundred or so barrels a day right now. Note they don't give any recent numbers