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"far more educated than me"
I doubt that.
;)
No problem Stockraiser, I try and be honest and transparent in everything I post, not like some posters that are far more educated than me, that try and manipulate charts and figures to suit their trading agenda, I wish you well whatever…
"Emperors new gas"
Lol
Ocelot I think you mean 'if' Loxley's commerciality is confirmed.
Any incoming partner won't just take UKOG's GIIP figures but do their own analysis of the mapping and look at the commerciality via risked NPV including their up front costs something UKOG raising cash through equity don't have to worry about - and it won't be with today's gas price - it will be with a price forcast into the future that may well take into account less reliance on gas at some point. But you never know - there might be another AIM plc looking for 'news' and blow the risk.
But why does it seems drilling Loxley has been kicked into the long grass - with UKOG 'bigging up' the gas storage project (just like ocelot) and moving forward on that rather than HH-2z and Loxley. As non-operator they don't have control over the Turkish adventure expenditure or timing although Basur is starting to look decidedly dodgy given the latest RNS.
Ninetails - tks for the reply ;-)
GLSR
Perhaps we should start calling this the "Emperors new gas". Then again that is probably totally inappropriate given the time scale involved in getting into production if they find any.
Stockraiser…I have given my current opinion on ukog, and the management many times, and I am not qualified to recommend whether to buy, sell, or hold, so once more I will say in my opinion the company is a sham, a total lifestyle company for those in the circle, I do not participate in the rampfests, when there’s some sort of transformational news due, but I am honest and have sold on the spikes and bought back in on the dips, I was a slow learner and have on managed to do this and make some gains about 4 times in around 5 years, but as I said I don’t believe a word that comes out of SS,s Mouth, he is a proven liar and an excellent bender of the truth…
Mirasol
I don't think they even provide drilling services any more other than at East Sadak.
From company overview. "The company aims to expand in the near abroad. As a part of this process we will continue to add to our assets and infrastructure and hopefully, one day soon, take the step of becoming a publicly traded company."
With East Sadak, Resan/Basur and one failed bid they have failed to impress me when you see the amount of drilling going on in Turkey.
wizard,
Re farm-ins more generally:
the price will not be the same once Loxley's commerciality has been confirmed, so a deal for a certain percentage at the present time might prove attractive to a risk-taking explorer.
"Since the announcement (of 30/05, re the Portland gas storage project) the Company has held productive talks with a number of key infrastructure stakeholders and potential strategic partners" (the interim results RNS of 30/06). That was, therefore, in 1 month.
The recovery of the Loxley appeal by the SoS was announced on 06/01 so there has been 6 months in which discussions could have taken place about Loxley with potentially interested parties, 6 months during which natural gas prices have continued to underline the project's potential appeal.
I think it means they provide drilling services outside Turkey in the Middle East - not Surrey
From their website; AMBITION & STRATEGY
"Thanks to a highly organized business structure and professional management, AME grew to become one of Turkey’s most prominent drilling and oil field service companies. Although AME no longer acts as a drilling contractor, we continue to believe that among our most valuable assets is our superbly qualified and highly motivated technical staff, with experience both in Turkey and abroad."
wizard,
There's no indication from AME they are looking to move outside of Turkey.
UKOG itself was attracted to SE Turkey in part by the much friendlier regulatory regime than that of the UK which, unfortunately, makes the UK an expensive place to do business for an energy explorer.
I'm potentially going to win the lottery tonight.
"Loxley is a potentially major project."
It WAS a potential major project after Conoco drilled the Godley Bridge 1 well in 1982 - that's 40 years ago. After the -2 and 2z wells and Arreton 1 in 1986 it was a dog. Since then the Licence has been held by numerous other oil companies (all bigger than UKOG) and no-one has thought it will work. Note there is almost no new seismic data in the area since the wells were drilled. The 2010 line shot by Star east west on the UKOGL site is absolutely flat - any structure is created in the depth conversion process.
Ocelot
The answer to your question on Loxley positive is to develop a farm in or partnerships with AME if it is necessary after the drilling of the Turkish well. Should this be successful and finance can be raised at more favourable rates.
If not a farm in or partnerships may be the way forward.
AME state the are looking to float on the markets and Cem Soyer is a UK resident.
This may be how the Turkish partnership came about in the first place. The initial drill in Turkey was necessary to prevent the loss of the licences for non fulfilment of works. UKOG have potentially made the Turkish licenses work for AME.
9tails - "Ocelot your market opinion, is always wrong, and according to you only stands for the day, then your market opinion is, according to you, history?? And you start afresh with a new (same as usual) market opinion?"
So what is your current opinion of UKOG, do you think the sp will rise from where it is now, do you think it's a goood time to buy? - awaiting your wisdom - tks - SR
Potentially - good word that, covers a load of unknowns.
what are the actual risks - UKOG put the chance of success at 60 to 70% - and judging by their previous utterancies about thir projects, which can hardly be called pessimistic (or even right), that will be an optimistic opinion of the COS.
They chose to claim there was a Loxley gas field (there certainly isn't if UKOG put a 30 to 40% chance of failure) and appear to have got Xodus to calculate volumetrics that they could have done themselves - was it just to add credibility to the numbers, which are now used as if the well's been drilled and the development's in progress
It also has the potential to be a dud.
As for funding - why not get the HH-2z injection going - probably the lowest cost work in their future plans - which some posters believe will increase production to 300bopd and obviously save on water disposal costs - surely that would make the SP go up so any raising would add less shares and maybe reduce the cash needed - or is UKOG not getting on with it suggesting those posters were wrong?
Also get a CPR done which will surely be so positive that it will also raise the SP - or perhaps not as UKOG don't seem to be doing that either for some reason.
'If you were the CEO of UKOG, how would you seek to finance its development?'
2 for 1.... For every £1 spent on the project, I would want £1 to pay the BOD (mainly myself) as shareholders have proved to be such a soft touch so far, I might as well milk them for every penny I can before they eventually get fed up with being diluted through discounted placings.
Loxley is a potentially major project.
If you were the CEO of UKOG, how would you seek to finance its development?
Ok well my arguments are, ukog has become a lifestyle company, with no interest in shareholder value, SS is quite happy spinning a tale of riches to come, with no interest off ever achieving anything, and is quite happy to muddle on at a snail’s pace, whilst continually receiving his over inflated salary…
Ninetails,
Our market opinions are now identical: you have no opinion and neither do I!
Ocelot your market opinion, is always wrong, and according to you only stands for the day, then your market opinion is, according to you, history?? And you start afresh with a new (same as usual) market opinion?
Experimenting, Ninetails, have decided to follow your example and that of others and not show my market opinion all the time.
Hope this will mean those who wish to criticise me will go a bit deeper and criticise my arguments and not simply my market opinion.
Ocelot,, so which strong buy do you still recommend? This weeks? Last weeks? This months? Last Months ? This year’s? Last year’s? Or the year before or the year before or the year before that? Or will you man up and say you have been completely and utterly wrong, or maybe you are just a con man trying to influence others with your historically proven garbage?
Not really a rally, but it did close up on the UT of 850k shares, at 0.115p.