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Ibug,
A couple of things to bear in mind; they are on the 11th Well on East Sadak, so they have had plenty of opportunity to improve performance by fine tuning their drilling program.
Also, Exploration Wells tend to gather more data (e.g. E-Log runs prior to running casing, coring) than a Development Well, so take a bit longer in that respect too.
On the other hand, for some reason I had the figure of 2,000m in mind as a potential TD for Basur, not 1,200m.
Looking at their website, UKOG haven't given any details that I can find (not surprise there...), although in one slide they do reference the original Basur well as going to c. 1,250m.
If they do call TD at around 1,250m, then yes, they should reach that in around four weeks from Spud.
Good evening HH1AN2
Go to this link.
hTTps://drillordrop.com/2021/04/28/horse-hill-scales-back-oil-storage/
Click on highlighted "letter" in text. It will direct you to UKOG's communication with SCC.
Go to page 13 for maximum traffic and volumes.
" as in the past I've seen 4 in a day"
Some may have been water or waste tankers but on when they were producing 200+ bopd then at say Easter they couldn't run tankers from Friday to Monday inclusive (Planning Restriction) - so yes, on Easter Tuesday you might see 4 oil tankers taking away the oil from the long weekend.
The proposed reduction to 49 tonnes storage (less than 400 bbls) means that over an Easter they'd now be restricted to around 90 bopd - which isn't too far from the last OGA figures
HH1AN2
Based on the amount of oil and water reported by UKOG to the OGA here are the maximum number of tankers per month.
Estimated number of tankers per month
MONTH OIL WATER
March 27 no water
April 34 no water
May 26 3
June 23 7
July 18 6
August 19 7
September 14 6
October 7 no water
November 15 6
December 12 7
January 15 9
Just seen below maximum tanker count of 2... do you mean at the moment... please explain as in the past I've seen 4 in a day.. ok quiet some time ago but have seen them with my own eyes at horeshill...
I read the comments that the Kimmeridge is not dead because of the mooted HH4 which Sanderson seems is in no hurry to complete.
The evidence that the Kimmeridge is unlikely to be of serious value anymore to UKOG can be found in the amended HH development plan submitted to the authorities on 1st April 2021.
Firstly; there is a maximum daily tanker count of TWO. That means a THEORETICAL maximum of circa 440 barrels a day being exported. That's a long way from Sanderson's planned 2,000 barrels per day planned for year end 2019.
This takes us neatly to the second critical piece of evidence from the amended plans; the on site storage; much reduced to just 49 tonnes.
Because we know that tanker traffic is restricted at the weekends and that production is 24/7 ;it can be extrapolated that UKOG are actually not expecting much over 200 barrels a day at weekends and hence every other day of the week.
There will be a depletion curve which will show barely commercial volumes in the years towards the end of the planned 20 years of production.
Third piece of evidence can be found in the asset impairment that used an "utilised an internally generated depletion curve"
Note this paragraph from the results;
"The Directors have carried out an impairment review as at 30 September 2020. The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £4.78 million and therefore determined that HH-1 should be impaired by £9.35 million. The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed. "
That's a huge impairment.
In 2018 UKOG bought out others interests paying £300,000 per 1% of HHDL ;therefor then valuing the whole at £30m.
Fourth piece of evidence is to be found in the 16th April 2021 results RNS .
You will find tables with the estimated volumes in UKOG's portfolio from which we know that The Portland 1C is 600,000 barrels and that is what UKOG now believes is the 'likely technically recoverable'.
The shocker is the Kimmeridge; 1C is 300,000 barrels to UKOG .( Source quoted; note 6 ;"RPS Jun 2019.").
The 2c is 1.4million.
Is that really worth throwing more money at after your previous pressure and flow data proved sub-commercial.?
Remember how Sanderson highlighted the higher UK drilling costs in this presentation;
youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI . He does NOT mention the Kimmeridge.
From all the above numbers and plans published by UKOG ,one can reasonably assume that any future value contribution from the Kimmeridge is likely negligible at best.
One can understand why Sanderson is less than keen on progressing HH4 and has priorities elsewhere.
So its off to Resan where UKOG "- need to establish commercial rates and volumes" (see the slide in the presentation)
ZYX098
I was working on well times at East Sadak 11.
Spudding Date : 18.3.2019
Complet ion Date : 31.05.2019
Contractor : AME
Operator : AME
Rig Type : Ideco H-725 (AME-101)
Total Depth : 2725 m
where Basur is only about 1200m. They should have finished at East Sadak all being well. Shame our so called Turkish investors add nothing to this bb of any note and you would think they would be able to find out unlike us that don't speak the language.
Ibug,
The size and layout of the site and in particular the concrete pad point towards AME 101 being the Rig that they intend to use.
I don't know if that's readily available, but I understand there is a licence commitment to spud before the end of June? If so, they would have factored that into their Rig schedule.
Wells take on average c. 45 days in that area, so with a spud date of 1st week in June (the earliest I think they would be ready if using the AME 101), that would put TD in mid-July.
Mirasol
No sense making predictions until the availability of a rig becomes evident. The w/o rig was last heard of at East Sadak drilling No.13. We have no news of that or of a possible 13S or 14 which was supposed to be drilled in March. Would they bring out the big boy to drill 4000ft? TD could be in as little as 7 weeks with a fair wind imo.
Indeed, lots of time for a healthy rise in anticipation and share price, leading up to the forthcoming coming drill and results. IMO trend will be well and truly up over those coming weeks and the naysayers know it.
at least 12 weeks for any results
Penguins,
We are all impatient to learn more about Basur-3. The spud is not far off now, so there is not much longer to wait.
Must proof read better:
Not:-
'But now 5 years after months of ewt, knowing the Portland was fractured following the 2016 testing'
But:-
'But now after months of ewt, 5 years after knowing the Portland was fractured following the 2016 testing,'
Ocelot,
I'm not sure of the purpose of that cut'n'paste.
It highlights the duplicity of UKOG with respect to investors.
'plenty of promise but with the expected problems too'
I'm not sure that over the years that UKOG has mentioned 'problems' with the reservoirs at HH. Just bullish statements about oil flows and resources that are never revised to acknowledge the 'problems' they seemingly encounter unexpectedly - which, although they don't deign to give specifics of these problems, I'd assume were water ingress from fractures as well as rapidly declining flow rates - both problems very likely to be encountered with fractured reservoirs.
Surely it would be a positive step if they were to give some information about these problems, the impact on previous statements about resources and flow rates, what's expected from the injector (including possible problems rather than only the positives), so that not only financially will they have 'cleared the decks' but also operationally, vs the current situation which is avoiding mentioning what the water cut is - or even flow rates, leaving it to the 3 month delayed OGA data release.
Maybe if they had read this board and read the posts over the years that have highlighted the possible 'problems' (you know the ones from 'swampies', shorters, nimby's) they wouldn't have been so unexpected?
But now 5 years after months of ewt, knowing the Portland was fractured following the 2016 testing, and dilling a failed horizontal production well, predictions of production rates that have never been revised it's a bit rich to now be saying 'The team is determined to find technical solutions to make it the economic success story we want it to be'.
or is it just BS to repeat to the gullible.
Let's hope that there's no unexpected problems with Basur, though it would be great to know what's expected apart from cheap drilling, easy permissions and arm waving resources
"Only a madman would sink more investors money into the UK asset when more Turkey drills beckon."
.....Oh no...!
;)
The oil field (HH) has behaved like a talented but troublesome teenager: plenty of promise but with the expected problems too. In addition to the constant and mounting regulatory workload, the oil field's geology has proved unexpectedly complex. The team is determined to find technical solutions to make it the economic success story we want it to be. (from the Chairman's statement from the Annual Accounts RNS of 16/04/21).
We shall see, but the near-term focus is, of course, on Basur-3.
Even SS could not manage that as the video is only 3m 21s long.
All this talk about the UK assets is academic really.
If Turkey is a flop then this company is broken. Finished. Kaput.
If Turkey is good then that gives more options.
To revisit the UK assets maybe. But why would you? Think about it. Millions already spent on what in hindsight has turned out to be a flop, both oil/water cut and regulatory.
Only a madman would sink more investors money into the UK asset when more Turkey drills beckon. Gla
At 13 min he clearly answers a question on the kimmeridge at horse hill stating it needs a horizontal or slant well. Also that the kimmeridge is defiantly nit written off as implied by the question .
UKOG have a history of stating things that never came to pass. HH was supposed to be producing 2,000 barrels a day by YE 2019.
If HH remains such a wonderful asset; why aren't the HH3 and HH4 wells being drilled as a priority; will they ever be drilled.?
Sanderson explained the reason why the company is in Turkey;
"to get the step change in value UKOG seeks we need projects that are each worth hundreds of millions in value; not tens. So , because the UK on shore does not have this size of new opportunity ; that's where SE Turkey comes in"
Sanderson could not be clearer; the rewards that The weald offers are now considered puny.
The Kimmeridge is a busted flush.
The planned HH-3 and HH-4 infill wells are also designed to boost production as we move forward in developing our asset. (RNS of 16/04/21)
The Kimmeridge HH-4 well, also situated updip of both HH-1 and HH-2z, is likely to be a highly inclined or "slant" well, designed with a lateral orientation approximately orthogonal to the known regional open natural fracture direction, so as to maximise the number of open fractures penetrated. (RNS of 15/01/21)
He never mentioned "The Kimmeridge" once.
People can hear Sandersons words themselves;
youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
Geothermal at BB ..really? Is that an ideal location? How much money is there in geothermal.
From selling dreams of shareholders being able to retire to the Bahamas , its come to hot water?
You didn’t listen hard enough.
Kimmeridge was mentioned
Also Where is the second geothermal target? BB? Possibly?
If Sanderson considered there was any value in further Kimmeridge drilling he would be revisiting Broadford Bridge as a priority and not rolling the dice in Resan .
You just have to view this presentation where he comprehensively trashes the value of the Weald;
youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
No mention of the Kimmeridge.
Its clear that Sanderson has written off The Kimmeridge