Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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I don’t believe for one minute that UKOG and SS are going to be anywhere near as successful as the big oil companies when it comes to striking oil. I’d be confident that the percentage success rate is skewed towards the bigger players and the chance of failure for UKOG is high as history demonstrates. Sadly for each failure there is a need to raise more funds to keep the lights on. This is no more than a punt now and I wouldn’t risk big money here.
So 33% success better than average. Very good UU
"If all wells were successful ..."
we'd all be rich - the problem is the normal success rate for wildcat drilling world wide is around 10% - even in the N Sea after 50 years of experience it's only 30-38% and that's Exploration - not commercial success - which is somewhere around 28%
There is no evidence that UKOG can do any better - 3 wells drilled in 6 years - one an exploration success and (maybe) is commercial, one complete dog and another (actually an appraisal) that has found some oil but also has a a water problem
Perhaps, perhaps not........didn't seem to be a problem in 2013.
AME raises US$ 20 Million in New Equity from 4D Global Energy Advisors SAS
22/02/2013
Wichita, Kansas – 22 February 2013 – Aladdin Middle East Ltd. (“AME”), an independent oil and gas company with primary operations in Turkey, announced today that it has raised US$20 million in new equity from 4D Global Energy Advisors SAS (“4DGEA), a Paris-based private equity investor that specializes in the energy sector.
But you're right it is all about risk - offloading it on to UKOG.
It’s all about risk and drilling the well before June next year. Our JV partner won’t have access to equity markets. A lot hedges on the success of the first well tbh
I certainly understand decline rates in naturally fractured carbonate reservoirs, and I suspect that UKOG investors who have been around since 2016 understand the difference between the rates seen from the KL4 and KL3 initially in HH-1in 2016 (901 & 464 respectively, these with with the flow rate from the Portland lead to incessant claims of 1688bopd being expected from HH-1) - and that the Kimmeridge is no longer mentioned at the same time as HH-1 and the well currently producing - well it was 'over 300bopd' at the end of June when no mention was made as to what the production was using the higher capacity pump.
Maybe these fields started out at great rates and this is from slide 11 of the presentation:-'Wells on East Sadak have flowed at 1,300 bopd from naturally fractured and dolomitized Cretaceous Mardin limestones'
But why no mention of the flow rates now from this field which is producing from the Resan target reservoir less than 20 miles away along strike.
I'll repeat (slightly modified) if the Resan wells will produce 1000bopd for a significant period - not just a 'UKOG special' initial short term rate - then why would AME farm the licence out to anyone when just one well would be probably more than all these 'old' fields produce?
Penguins - these wells are up to 8 years old and have not had money spent to enhance production. I assume you are aware of natural decline rates etc. It’s worth checking the rates they came onto production. Also theses wells are some way of Ukog licence. Notwithstanding this oil exploration is a gamble
Trollhunter,
could you tell us where you got this figure of 1000bopd, from each well?
AME seem to have very modest production from a number of fields.
Eruh Licence – no information although this field is in production from the proposed reservoir target for Resan, and is a nearby field. Odd that UKOG didn't quote any figures for flow rates etc for that field.
Zeynel-Nemrut Lease The total monthly oil production is around 3.000 bbls/month. AME holds %25 WI in the concession. AME net 25bopd.
Arpatepe Production Lease Daily net oil production is approximately 335 bbls/day from 6 production wells (AME 20%) It's possible that net oil means oil net of water so possible AME share is only about 70bopd
Karakilise Licence Current daily net oil production is ~20 bbls/day from only Karakilise-1 Well (AME 50%)
Petek-1 well was put on production in 11 February 2014 and is producing from Cretaceous reservoir in the Mardin Group carbonates with 35.9° API gravity at 100 bbl/day. AME holds %50
ALTINAKAR-BASAKLI PRODUCTION LEASE – according to GYP production was about 21,000bbls in 2014
From GYP website:
Altinakar Field Although initial production rate was increased to 60 bbls/d for a week, a quick decline occurred, and an original rate of 15 bbls/d was resumed afterwards. Currently, daily oil production rate is 12 bbls and the total production from the well is 14,080 bbls.
Basakli Field Having installed a pump on July 11, 2014, the well produced daily 115 bbls crude oil with 25% water cut. Since June 2015, daily oil production of the well is 60 bbls and the total production is 27,500 bbls.
With most of their fields with wells producing in the tens of bopd rather than hundreds do you seriously think if there was a chance each well could produce 1000bopd that AME would have farmed out the first well to UKOG saving £3mm - after all they own the drill rig so could drill it for a bargain price.
and this is their business strategy:-
'We reduce initial investments invested in high-risk exploration.....'
eg getting UKOG to pay 100%..........
'AME asset base includes large positions in several long-running pieces that generate little to no cash flow. We will continue to high-grade our portfolio and consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials.'
eg farming out 50% to UKOG............
Wizard. I was responding to 2p shareprice on successful drills and 1000bopd in turkey. If all wells were successful that’s 50mmbbl net to Ukog, hence my valuation under 1p. As things stand I think fair value is 0.3 to 0.40 but news needs to drill the price
oilriches
Can you please explain you UKOG value of £100 million & how it is made up?
Many thanks.
Update on Turkey tommorow imov. Gla
HH1AN2 you can of course say that you think that someone is wrong in your opinion. However, your comment would gain some credibility if you could say why you think they are wrong.
HH1AN2,
anything else - a comment, an argument against?
It's something I agree with and have said so before when posters claim the government 'supports UKOG' without any factual basis.
Here's my similar take from 8 July 2020, a response to this post from wasred 'do inform us from where this inside information, re the government would be happy in onshore energy development was abandoned, came. The pub at the weekend??????. SS, UU.:-
'actions speak louder than words. Offshore rounds are held regularly, onshore rounds the last one closed 2015, the one before that 2008. Onshore has small sites producing little oil but requires relatively a lot of oversight. Mostly small, underfunded companies operating on a shoestring whose purpose is primarily to pay the BOD wages yet inferring that a licence from the 'government' and meetings with the OGA shows some sort of support for their endeavors, whereas with so little competition applying for a licence with virtually no money and a work programme that consists of desk studies can get you a licence.
For example this is an extract from the consultation document recently issued on the revised OGA Strategy:
'secure that the maximum value of economically recoverable petroleum is recovered from the strata beneath relevant UK waters; and in doing so'
They often (always?) seem to forget there's an onshore industry.'
wasred didn't respond either.......
exploration and pericles2
You are both wrong imo