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Thorpedo. perhaps I have it wrong, I read it as, the conversion price is based on the SP over a given window of time from when the shares are aquired from the loan. and Not when the deal was Set.
So if the sp over a period of a week was 6p then YA would then obtain them at around 5.4p
70x more contact with the "best" part of the Portland on this second well and the doom-mongers are saying only double the rate.
From RNS"The EWT, which will include the use of a British designed HIGH-capacity/HIGH-rate downhole electric pump or "ESP","
Wait and see chaps, the indications are great.
Scallywag3
Whilst I dont usually agree with Penguins I do on this point. I think my calculation (which I dont have to hand) was the maximum conversion price is 1.37.
I am happy with this as the SP was 0.85 when the deal was announced. With the 10% discount YA could have got then the conversion price was 0.76.
Or put another way the £5.5m loan could only cost £3m of dilution as at the deal date price.
Penguins, what level of detail would you expect ukog to furnish you with for predicted flow rates? Is their current commentary making you question why you invested in ukog? While we are at it, what did make you invest? I ask this because I do not believe you own 1 single share.
The initial flow rates will be high. They always are. There will be a drawdown over time and after 90 days we will know what we are dealing with. Expect 50% less than what is reported in the 'first 24 hours'. Some will get caught out on this. Hopefully we will see over 1000 average in the first week. May settle at around 700 and I would be happy with that. If the initial rates are lower than 700 I will be very concerned. The current MCAP is around fair value for the risk/reward so could move strongly either way.
Isn't the purpose of the EWT on HH-2z to establish flow rates. All they are saying is that it is capable of delivering significantly higher flow rates. We would expect that from any vertical vs. horizontal. What is important is that they have completed it with no reported issues. Now the excitement begins. I personally reckon 500-700bopd x 5 wells...and you have your 3500 bopd which the planning perms allow. We'll see.
8ollocks penquins,
1.35p is just a figment of your imagination.
The Loan attracts 0% interest and may, at the sole discretion of the Investors, be converted into new ordinary shares in the Company. The conversion price is the lower of either a share price of 130% of the Company's average VWAP prior to the Loan drawdown ('Fixed Conversion Price'), or 90% of the Company's lowest VWAP during the five days prior to the conversion date. The Loan is convertible by the Investors in tranches of not less than £150,000, with a limit of £3 million per quarter, unless otherwise agreed by the Company.
Penguins
They were close!
21 March 2016
UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC
("UKOG" or the "Company")
Horse Hill-1 Oil Discovery, Weald Basin, UK
Aggregate Flow Rate Likely the Highest of any UK Onshore New Field Discovery Well
UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC (London AIM and ISDX: UKOG) announces that Horse Hill Developments Ltd has informed the Company that the final Horse Hill 1 ('HH-1') Portland test flowed at a stable dry oil rate of 323 barrels of oil per day ('bopd'), double the previously reported rate.
apologies,
just realised the current company line (today's RNS) is the even more vague "significantly greater flow rates than those seen in the HH-1 vertical well".
and no indication which of the many actual flow rates they might be referring to - but presumably not 362bopd which was a calculated rate.
Scallywag,
the maximum YA have to pay for converted shares is about 1.35p for the £5.5mm loan. There isn't a specific figure quoted but the method of calculation is mentioned in the 7 August RNS.
Initial flow rates will be interesting but many will wait for the CPR as it will be difficult to gauge whether the whole Portland will significantly contribute to the flow or whether connected oil, and thus the percentage of it that will be recoverable, will be limited to the 35 foot layer, and even that doesn't appear to be all the relatively high poroperm Portland (Nutech HH-1 CPI in Xodus 2018 CPR).
They may temporarily test at high rates - the current company line is significantly more than 362bopd, but the recent EA documentation appears to be requesting a flare rate of about half the gas rate anticipated for 3500bopd so testing at rates above 2000bopd for any length of time may not be possible even if the reservoir could sustain it. Not sure what the limit is until the recent request is approved.
The uncertainty may, or may not be, an opportunity for brave pi - posters can guess any rate they like but UKOGs current guidance is perhaps deliberately vague and seems to be less optimistic than the previously targeted 720 to 1080bopd, and as usual no indication as to whether it's an initial or sustainable rate they are targeting.
Interesting times for UKOG.
I wonder if this is an effect of all the ramping that goes on here.
I'm interested in the price going up and down so either way I'm good.
But, reading their posts, even some of the rampers seem to get caught up in other rampers' excitement and believe all the hype.
I do think there will be a profit for the holders, just not within the timescales being touted.
Once it starts, it may well provide its' own momentum (as it did a couple of years ago).
Even though I trade and hold UKOG, I'll be long gone before it reaches the potential some on the board are predicting/hoping for.
:)
:)
I'd think this will probably languish around this price for November, with a meteorotic climb in early December followed with a sawtooth climb into next year.
all in my opinion of course, which is why I topped up today.
scallywag3, any time line for when we expect this possibly good news, before end of November ????
YA will have little effect, once the new well is given up 2,500 Bod That will put the SP to 9.25p A lot less shares for YA at that price.
Do your own maths, The above is purely my own given all the information known to date. ( As long as it wasn't supplied by Angs. )
damp squid spring to mind, until we get rid of that "YA effect" this is going nowhere, shame really that all the debt and borrowing is killing all the positive news, the problem is even with high volume, the bard*****s are selling there stake as quick as they can so it is going to take a miracle to change this statue quo, it took ages to sell the previous 150k and now we are in another cycle and there 4 Million to go, could be some time before things improve really, I invested here and hate to be right but I can`t see this improving in the few months or so, the new today was "GREAT NEWS" and my expectations were more than 2% and we still got most of the trading day left, being loaded twice here hate to be negative but if someone can post something positive about this "YA" situation then it would be great but a poster said yesterday it taken weeks to clear the last 150k !!!