The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Bridgedogg,
The computer model of the field and as far out as necessary to model all the elements (eg water drive) is essentially 'produced' by a well placed within it. The aim will be to match the production and pressures recorded during the ewt (& pbu) over a period of time with the computer model
Once that is done over a long enough period the future production of the well predicted by the model can be calculated. There will be tweaks to the model and from multiple runs, using a 'monte-carlo' type algorithm, a range of reserves can be calculated from the production that could be used for RBL
A simple reservoir which is much the same throughout, especially if it is well known, might not even need an ewt
But the Portland has had significant changes in understanding
In the 2018 CPR the uncertainty was such they just used 'type' wells not the data obtained from the limited testing and thus only contingent resources were generated, not reserves
The Portland Sand was thought to produce from the whole section, high water saturation with no water produced was not understood
Following HH-2 drilling it was thought that only a 35ft zone with intervals of high permeability contributed the lions share of production
The horizontal was placed in this zone. The initial clean up had indications that formation water was being produced, probably from a fracture at or near the toe of the well. The well was also at near virgin pressure suggesting a degree of separation from HH-1
An interference test was carried out between HH-1 and HH-2 and whilst in the RNS they do not state the degree of communication it seemed to confirm that HH-1 and HH-2z are separated. In the latest RNS it was stated that there are possibly a series of fractures at the toe end of the well.
The fix to shut off the water ingress should be successful but that isn't known yet.
A whole lot of information and assumptions to try out in the model so it will be complex with many variables - degree of separation between the 2 producing wells, fissures with water possibly making sections of the reservoir sealed off from wells, the degree the rest of the Portland might contribute to production, with intraformational seals/ baffles etc, variation within the 'sweet spot' etc.
Not a few days work after a week of ewt - in my opinion.
I think they will hold off on both due to panic in the markets in order to get maximum buys when this frigging virus thing calms down again.
DOW down over 1900 points in 2 days
"If we are shutting off the desperate pressure at the end of the horizontal why does it need to be rebuilt?"
A Reservoir Model doesn't just look at the oily bits - it looks at the area for a long distance around and also vertically . You have to be able to forecast the movement of oil, gas & water across the whole thing in time. The water drives the oil/gas towards the producing wells so the model has to be built to take that into account.
I understand they build (in a computer) a vast series of small blocks (think of Lego blocks here) each maybe a 10 -20 ft a side. This has maybe several million blocks covering an area of 10 sq kms and say 200 ft thick. Each block has to have a net sand, a porosity, a permeability, oil/water saturation, pressures etc etc as a minimum.
You then "fill" it with oil and water based on your results to date and your geological model. Then you start to pull oil out at HH1z........ the programme shows how the oil and water flow over time from cell to cell across the whole model over 20, 30 50 years..
Very powerful, almost always wrong in detail but its all you have
Problem is when you find something unexpected - such as a new pressure regime - you have to go back in with a new geological model and change all the parameters in the area affected. So some will become non -flowing barriers and others beyond that will be changed to an oil/water mix.
This is not a simple exercise. And The OGA will want to see all the results before granting an FDP
http://www.oil-gasportal.com/reservoir-management/integrated-reservoir-modeling/
Can’t rule out an RNS update for today. Exciting times.
If we are shutting off the desperate pressure at the end of the horizontal why does it need to be rebuilt? Plenty more data and certainty of data means the next CPR will provide RBL fairly quickly imo
"Since then haven’t we brought forward the end of the EWT and the start of production to the spring? So CPR likely to be sooner rather than later."
Yes but... the discovery of a seperate pressure regime at the end off the horizontal means the original reservoir model they've been working with for the last 2 years is wrong - at least parts of it are wrong. So that has to be rebuilt and rerun on the basis of the new data. This is not a couple of days work.... maybe a couple of months.
The water is a complication but if it is isolated, which it should be, it just changes the oil in place - the reservoir model can be tweaked quite easily for that issue once they have some post isolation data - probably a minimum of 2 weeks flow.
Since then haven’t we brought forward the end of the EWT and the start of production to the spring? So CPR likely to be sooner rather than later.
And your point is ?? I don't think Schumacher et at with egg on their face ..,.anywhere each to their own .,.I'm in since dec 2015 at .y topped up at 0.i so shut up yop
P
Mmmm I've been invested since 2015 and I'm still in profit...go , ,swifler
jmhy,
This was in the 11 September 2019 RNS before they knew about the water ingress, compartmentalisation and they thought they would be testing later in 2019.
'It is planned to commission a new Competent Persons Report to establish the Company's net Reserves following completion of HH-2z production testing in the Autumn.'
"Cannot be far away"
An RNS - probably on Monday when they'll know just how effective the water fix has been
A CPR - 2 months - they need the results over at least 2 weeks from the fix to hang their hats on any new numbers - and that's when they START re running the reservoir models..................
Hoping so, something has got investors interested
Cannot be far away