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@ Max111 - as I've said before we both share the same optimism for UFO, the only difference is the speed at which we believe things will happen.
As we both know our first JORC resource is already on the to do list, its completion (or even the ability to start this) being held back by the various and on-going delays in getting results from the labs.
We'll have to wait and see if any future plan for extraction comes along with that first JORC or if we have to wait longer to find out how they plan to monetize this iron ore.... something I expect to be a more significant mover of the share price than the JORC on its own.
Whenever that happens I'll still be holding my shares.
IMO what is needed to move the pendulum for a project generator company like UFO to go to high gear is for Bill, the BOD and the tech team to prove their technical competence in hunting for the commodities, and converting the exploration targets into a JORC compliant resource.
This is exactly what is about to happen.
@Max111 - whether it is fair or not to compare UFO to any other junior isn't the point. The point is that markets don't care what we hope, know or understand, they move based upon how others act, and sentiment is rarely rational.
The markets view us as just one of many junior explorers and compare our assets with other juniors of similar mkt cap. If they didn't we would be worth a lot more already.
At some point UFO will do something to grab the attention of the market and highlight that our DSO is both plentiful and faster to extract than some other commodities. However until we have a formal JORC resource defined for even a tiny proportion of our iron and formal plan and finances to show how quickly we can get this to market we are "behind" the other juniors in the eyes of the market. Those, like you and I who can see this are happy to hold this investment and wait for that day to come.
Sentiment is fickle and can swing quickly but we haven't yet done what's needed to move the pendulum.
@ohwhatif, someone asked Bill that question in the June Presentation and he said:
"There has been no discussion or thought to that at the moment."
@HH, it is unfair to compare UFO with other juniors that require hundreds and even billions of pounds of investment in order to get their commodity to market.
It is better to compare UFO with a company like Fenix that only has under 10M tonnes of DSO and a market cap of over £100M. Plus they are trucking their DSO 490km, when as Bill said at the presentation, "We are only 170-180km by road to Port Hedland and we are in the heart of Iron Ore country, the infrastructure is there, the roads are fantastic."
Fenix only took 4 months to build their mine = Very simple operation. 1 excavator, 3 trucks. Crushing & screening using a mobile modular unit.
Therefore, unlike the other juniors, it's not going to take 8-10 years for UFO to be able to cash in on the high iron ore price which Goldman said, "Iron ore bull market likely to run until at least 2023".
@paulQ - "Quite frankly its at bargain basement prices below 2p and at this price its straight ridiculous in my books."
All valuations are subjective, I agree with your sentiment that UFO has the potential going forward to be a serious multi-bagger, (myself I'm already in multi-bag territory with UFO) which is why I'm invested here. However as to whether it is undervalued now or simply lower than we would like to see it....
We are very early stage in all our projects, if you look at other junior explorers with a similar mkt cap to UFO we can find examples with confirmed JORC resources of $2bn of gold , or $1bn of copper, $1bn of Nickle etc. etc. the point is that these other explorers are ahead of us in terms of having done enough drilling to formally establish their own resources but are still a long way from actually having plans and finances in place to get them out of the ground. Hence the mkt caps in the low tens of millions and the frustrated share holders all claiming their particular company should be valued much higher.
A company's shares are only worth what others are willing to pay for them. To be worth more than many of the other junior explorers we have to offer more, the long term potential to do so is there but it will take time to prove this potential.
I wouldn't worry about share consolidation, yes we have a lot of shares in existence, and it might be something UFO think about in the future, but if they reduce the number of shares it doesn't change the mkt cap of the company or the value of any individual's holding.
What about share consolidation
I mean TP can say they think it's worth whatever they want doesnt mean the rest of the market does .I imagine if they say its worth 3p it will jump alot initially and then slowly increase as people take profit on way up is my guess
Yeah brokers evaluations don't really affect the share price directly. They are more of a guide. The problem is the current issued one is far off our fair value and we are even below the downside of the old estimate. Quite frankly its at bargain basement prices below 2p and at this price its straight ridiculous in my books.
I firmly believe ufo will turn a profit and the share price will be much higher before that point. We are in a proper multi bag share here. Only those who have researched and done the maths will know what I'm talking about.
BB - In my experience a broker's valuation and market price don't have to align and often don't.
Many here seem to be placing great emphasis on if/when Turner pope issue a new higher estimated market value for UFO. My expectation is that different investors will use their own methods, (or just gut feelings) to value a company and a broker's valuation may simply be one of many pieces of information fed in to that process. We'll probably see some sort of rise on good news leading up to such a statement and further rises afterwards, all interspersed with much day to day volatility with people selling to take profits where they can. Possibly to the extent that the announcement of a new valuation gets lost in the general noise or becomes a focal point for folk to "sell the news".
Over the longer period an improve broker valuation should be a good thing but the primary drivers of share prices for junior explorers are issuing a maiden or expanded formal JORC defined resource combined with expectations of when that resource is actually going to be sold, either as a mined commodity generating monthly profits, or sold out en-mass to a major to mine. Until actually in production a resource tends to be valued in ground at tiny fractions of the metal value and everything else is just guidance on where any individual may or may not chose to set that percentage discount. Many juniors hold defined resources that take them years to move forward, but I know we are all hoping UFO can do something with our iron quickly.
Folk here will know me to be cautious and not easily carried away by other people's enthusiasm. As such I'm not placing too much emphasis on any new "minimum" or "maximum" valuation TP may come up with as I see no reason for the share price to actually settle at whatever price they come up with (after all we are well below our current "minimum" valuation now so clearly the market doesn't view such things as physical limits) . Whilst short term sentiment around news flow can have a big impact on share price I'm merely hopeful that improved fundamentals going forward will encourage a few more buyers to stick around such that we don't sell back down to where we started after any new valuation becomes old news.
Would expect they would recalculate after good news, so after the price has already risen in response.
BB I’ve thought this a few times and tried to research it myself but never really got much on it, hopefully someone can advise as I was waiting on someone asking that very question:-)
This might seem a silly question, but I will pose it anyway...
TP will soon be re-evaluating UFO and with luck we could see 1.5p, 3.0p or more. However how does this actually work? Today we're at .85p then say tomorrow the re-valuation comes in at 3.0p. This cannot go in one massive tick up as there will be a stampede from profit takers thus tanking the SP again. Would the re-valuation be in small stages or what?
Thanks in advance
HH, the ‘SP ticked up for 30 seconds so news must be imminent’ has been posted by the same people over and over since October. No matter how ridiculous that is, they will not suddenly stop now.
Yes there is a great outlook for ufo but I do worry about the increased labour costs as we are still yet to produce this will effect the set up costs .. I do think that given the current circumstances UFO is best to JV off the iron ore project, mine the silver tailings themselves and then concentrate on the other projects at hand and look to firm them up.
This SP is absolutely bonkers considering the iron ore is now pretty much a sure thing.
think 60% was the lowest they got sure they had a 63% but think it was only 20 odd meters
Yes, the exploration targets were set last year in RNS 25th August (before they completed mapping & sampling - RNS 9th October).
Back then, the only data they had to go by were the 4 holes drilled by Volta in 2014 at the Sirius Extension, one of which returned 126m @60.28% Fe.
total agree there max i really think the 5-15 mil will be up rated significantly
In Turner Pope's SOTP valuation Research Note they stated:
"Discovering significant deposits and advancing them to resource estimate stage, either with a partner or by self-funding, will be the KEY DRIVER behind any valuation uplift for the Company."
This is exactly what the company is doing with making significant discoveries at phase 1 drilling, awaiting phase 2 resource drilling results which Howard Baker (who did the Mineral Resource Estimation for Rio Tinto’s Brockman sites) will then work on to convert into a JORC.
It's also important to note our valuation at Hanc0ck is only based on the Sirius Extension target. It doesn't include Ridge C (850m of DSO strike), Ridge E (1400m of strike which remains open in both directions - further 8.5km to the east within the tenement!) and the new target "Krill Back".
Plus we have only covered less than 30% of the tenement.
Our exploration will be revised significantly upwards IMO.
@smiller - we can live in hope that when institutional money moves back in to the big boys of the sector, us tiddlers catch a few crumbs from the table, or that the big boys themselves look to start spending their vast profits by purchasing us tiddlers such that we don't need to worry about private investor sentiment.
I suppose the one big plus about private investor sentiment being so fickle is that whilst it may be really against you when you are not in favour, the opposite can be equally true if there is some major catalyst to turn sentiment around.
I do think our first JORC resource on the Sirius extension will take longer to arrive than many here predict, but I am hopeful of it delivering a short term boost in sentiment and share price, even if such a thing is merely one more step along the path to riches rather than a destination in its own right.
yep HH but when the sector moves again which it will because of intuitional money then folk will flood back . Just going to be 2022 before I think we see real movement in the sector . Let inflation build and wait for whatever the trigger is for equity crash. My opinion .
Undoubtedly mining and metals exploration as a sector, and UFO as a junior, have a great outlook for the future... however I do wonder if investor sentiment is going to be the biggest risk to the juniors and the extent to which sentiment will have "burnt out" before getting started.
Almost everywhere you look there is one expert or another pro-claiming the positives going forward and a growing sense of expectation and impatience among private investors in many junior explorers. When every little twitch up in a share price is hailed as the start of something huge but is actually followed by nothing more than a little shuffle back down that impatience and frustration is only going to grow. In this regard UFO is no different to a dozen or so other juniors I'm invested in.
Those that understand the timescales and don't mind waiting will probably do just fine but I can't help but feel that all the positivity is going to lead to a lot of upset folk bailing out too soon (and maybe at a loss) if it isn't quickly matched by reality. This in turn generates a reluctance to re-enter later on holding back share prices.
Things will come good in their own time but it will be a volatile ride whilst people's expectations and attention spans are not in line with the pace at which the industry moves.
Platinum is the second highest valued metal.
True max111 - Iron is the only game in town at the moment. Copper good. Silver have to wait a bit slow but sure. People forget very easy Munni Munni platinum and palladium project across the tenement line. hit big there 1p is a distant memory!
Also RNS 9th Oct (which was the only RNS during the rise to 3p) stated:
"Initial interpretations are excellent with indications of the presence of a larger amount of the mineralised Brockman Iron Formation than originally thought."
Should be getting the permit to drill Brockman very soon. Can't wait!