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HH I wish I would have got in that early , well-done. Deanok , if your interested what drew me to UFO was some initial news on the excellent SP increase and momentum way back last year around covid times. For me I liked the fact that UFO are not trying to be a miner , I think this is probably a mistake a lot of other juniors get themselves into . I also like that there short term income stream appears to be from DSO which in geology /mining difficulty terms seems to be one of the easiest things to mine for. I think they can lean into the DSO to build into a larger company and then branch out into the more complex mining/geology commodities they have in due coarse . That's why todays news wasn't all bad , its good to see that BBG will walk away from a deal or situation if its not lining up .
I suppose I should add a caveat the the previous in that £200m would be a x100bag for me in terms of mkt cap, by the time you allow for placements and dilution I may need a somewhat larger mkt cap to x100bag in share price.
UFO appealed to me for a few reasons I initially found it because it had a mkt cap of only £2m, companies with mkt caps in the hundreds of millions don't (or very rarely) hundred bag in a "useful" timescale. £200m would make UFO a x100 bagger for me and still remain a small mkt cap for a junior so there was plenty of room to grow. At the time UFO had two silver projects in South America which whilst a long way from being anything had potential under the right geologist and the price had absolutely collapsed from its days of being Arian Metals and yet we had new management that looked far more competent. That was enough to tempt me to buy something that was out of fashion. The fact we were looking at more projects in Australia was a bonus as it offered a bit of diversity both in terms of another "safe" jurisdiction and extra commodities should the South American silver take a long while to "do its thing"... As it is I now see the Australian silver as the better silver play than South America.
I remain a silver bug at heart and still see that is where UFO's real wealth is in the long run, but I like the fact BBG seems to want to stick with what he knows and is good at. You see many directors who pursue what is fashionable and will easily draw in new punters. People who are always starting something new without having the skills to finish the last thing that would keep the old punters happy. BBG is a geologist who said he wants to stick with proving up projects and moving them on up to partners rather than trying to make UFO a producing miner. At the moment it looks as if his focus is on iron ore so we'll see how that plays out over the next year or two, but if he finds himself running an iron mining operation I'd be much more wary than trusting him to oversee other exploration projects.... Running a profitable mine is a very different skills set to planning geological exploration, and in my opinion may require a change of the structure of the BOD. However if BBG can make us a decent profit by finding somebody else to mine our iron then great.
UFO is far from the safest play in my portfolio, but is the one I judge most attractive in terms of the risk reward ratio, all the more so when the potential reward factor looks to keep increasing whilst the risk factor is slowly diminishing.
Only thing I know is we going to the moon
Some cracking posts HH. Wise words! Was there a specific RNS that made you invest in Alien? What impressed you when trawling through the low Mcap aim stocks when you came to alien? Have a good weekend all!
P.S not just directed at HH. Great to hear everybody’s reasons.
I'm hoping one day I will look back and laugh
Today is not that day
Best part being just after I bought the price dropped so had I waited 10 mins wouldn't have lost much ha
No bb wish I was if you look on the b and s board you will see a sell for 550 then further up a buy for 525 not been a gd week for me lol did have 2000000 in different pots now I I haven't I will have to make it up next week I guess
FGS Leweyman: Please tell me you are joking?
Or you can lose 25000 shares by being a clever dick like me and doing a dummy sell and actually pressing the sell button ... bought back in but the difference being 25000 shares moral of the story don't do a dummy sell when you just woke up after a nap ??
@Parkboy - we can all look back on what ifs.
Myself I'd be holding three times as many shares in UFO if I had bought all in in one hit on day one rather than looking for positive confirmation and averaging up... equally I would have lost three times as much had UFO turned out to be a dud, where as I've said, in this sector the odds are in favour of losing money.
I am sitting on some investments that are in the red that I've never added to or chased down, but its easy to be laid back about being more than 50% down when it was only a few hundred quid you put in in the first place, harder to swallow being 50% down if you've slowly built up to significantly larger sums before taking the hit. I've said before that despite still being in multi-bag profits with UFO, the drop from 3p has cost me roughly twice my typical annual income in paper losses, so even getting back up to 3p, let alone double digits share prices will make a worthwhile difference to me.
That’s good advice HH, I got carried away last year with the rising SP looking for a quick win, I’d be sat on 40 % more shares now and I’m holding nearly 6 million, if UFO ever hits double figures just think about how much my lack of patience will have cost me, ouch!!Sentiment seems to be shifting, nice to see some new PI’s on the board, looking forward to results landing, i can’t see us staying under 1p for much longer.
@silverhorse - you've asked me this before and whilst I've said I don't tip shares I did previously mention a couple to you, plus if you click on my profile here on LSE you'll see a few of the other bulletin boards I post on, though UFO is my largest holding in the junior exploration space.
However in terms of learning about this sector you'd be better served by taking the time to wade through the dross to start to recognise what makes it dross such that the good ones eventually start to stand out. If you only research the ones others tell you are potentially good you'll learn far less, plus you'll miss out on the those that others call dross but which still go on to make huge profits anyway.
There are any number of sites that enable you to call up lists of companies by sector and then sort those by various categories... I just started with a list of all London listed commodity based companies sorted by mkt cap. I wanted to get a foot in the door at the very earliest starting point so I started with the cheapest and just skimmed their web site and then moved on to the next cheapest, and the next cheapest... once you've gone through many websites and investor presentations you get a feel for those that stand out which you want to go back and properly research the management and licenses. I'd guess half I bought into were companies well below £10m mkt cap at the time I invested, the rest include some larger names (though in most cases still deemed juniors) I bought into for other reasons.
Plus it doesn't hurt to hold back a lot of cash and build a position slowly in chunks as a company keeps delivering on the promise you saw. If you throw all your money in in one hit it's much harder to take the loss if you are wrong and the price crashes, I'd rather average up as a company grows, than average down hoping things will turn around. Though whenever possible I try to average up by buying pull-backs rather than chasing a rising price, and if adding to a position I try to keep my average prices comfortably below current prices to leave room for the inevitable price drops that are common in this sector.... A great theory if you can make it work...
(just as I am hopeful that the more than a dozen other juniors I'm invested in) Hi Happy - Can i get a run down on the stocks you hold? I like to look into them thanks.
@crossfyre - thanks for the kind words; - investing in junior explorers, even the best of them takes, a certain dispassionate approach simply because so much that happens to them is entirely out of their own control.
Geology can make the greatest management with the best of plans look like idiots, just as easily as it can make lucky idiots very rich very quickly. Add on top of that the fact that the majority of moves in the share price are driven entirely by fickle sentiment of uniformed private investors guessing about the future rather than anything to do with the companies current fundamentals. It really can be a sector where most "standard" investment advice becomes redundant... there are no revenues to evaluate profits upon, even the value of assets is an unknown quantity - something that takes a lot of additional fund raising, expenditure and time to establish. By most conventional valuations junior explorers should all be worthless until they have grown to be much more than junior explorers, we are all just paying to get a foot in the door at a "cheap" price on the chance it later turns out they are actually worth a small fortune.
Nobody knows where the share price of UFO (or any other explorer) may be in a year or two, but like most here I've done my research and I think the odds are in favour of UFO being priced at a lot more in the future than now. As to how much more, or just when that future may arrive... well trying to predict that is for those deluded enough to think they really understand the sector. I'm happy to acknowledge I merely know enough to appreciate how little I understand about it, something that makes me very cautious, where as extreme confidence seems to stem from a failure to fully understand the risks leading to repeatedly getting things wrong.
I reckon that over 5-10 years one really good junior explorer will make more than enough profits to cover all the losses on a handful of bad ones. Yet across the sector the failures massively out number the minority of successes meaning the sector as a whole is a huge loss maker. I am hopeful that UFO is that good explorer, just as I am hopeful that the more than a dozen other juniors I'm invested in are also good ones. Probability suggests I'll be wrong on a good number of these but I only need one to make it, and if I beat the odds and two or three really fly then all the better.
@HH, just to say, excellent post. I have reasonable investing experience, but UFO is/was my first foray into the world of junior explorers. I researched UFO thoroughly before investing in Dec 2020 (and have topped up and learned extensively about exploration along the way). But, ‘acclimatising’ to the drops and down-time associated with juniors has taken some discipline. Posts like yours, that encourage a cautious, realistic but still positive outlook have helped ‘educate’ this (now previous) newbie and helped me avoid having a ‘wobble’ when the fundamentals hadn’t changed :)
Well events of the last year or so have brought a lot of new (and young?) investors to the junior exploration sector and the silver space, all with dreams of making it rich quick... Statistics suggest most of these will lose a lot of money through impatience and poor timing.
Any of those investing in UFO over the last 12months will be getting a good education about the erratic ups and downs, as well as the endless periods of not much happening that can go with investing in junior explorers... So just remember it is perfectly normal for great companies to go through large drops en-route to success, juts as it is perfectly normal for them to take years to reach that success but make their big gains over a few relatively short periods.
You can play the long game on fundamentals or the real short term game trading momentum, in between there s a void of pain for those who aren't quite sure of their strategy or their emotional discipline when things get tough.
Most of those the industry labels "experts" will tell you if investing in such early stage explorers that haven't yet got JORC defined resources then its all about trusting the management.... BBG has made a choice today that tells us a little more about his management and plans for UFO.