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Nice to see you back TKIA.
Kinda of feels normal again.
Have you bought in recently, or just browsing.
CU
https://tenor.com/view/looney-tunes-telescope-searching-wile-ecoyote-binoculars-gif-15106557
That’s correct Max, everything under 1.1p is a buy all day long
Cant confirm when or if it will multiply but it would appear to be a better bet than money in the bank and a low risk investment
This time last year it as .09 so that’s a x 10 bagger in 12 months which is amazing
Also the previous Turner Pope research note stated, "Importantly, several kilometres of BIF has been identified with high grade ore which bodes well to achieving the Group’s exploration target tonnage target of up to 245 million tonnes, which could potentially even need to be revised upwards following results from drilling that is expected to get underway in Q1 2021.
https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/420ad11c-4a90-4c16-950a-3107dd1c5d22/AlienMetals_2_12_2020_FINAL_BG.01.pdf
Ok if you want to use the fully diluted share capital of 3,928M (as per company presentation)
then that would give you a range of 1.06p - 3.10p.
Bring on the news flow!
Max, you need to include the outstanding warrants and Director options to validate the fully diluted SP
Will be about a 13.7% dilution so SP lower valuation surprisingly is about 1.04p ish
They are only exploration values so irrelevant once an asset is defined
*correction:
Using new SOTP Upside Valuation =
£121,660,000 / 3,423M shares = 3.55p
Yes definitely Wolfy. Looking very exciting.
Downside Valuation =
£41.5M / 3,423M shares = 1.21p (therefore we are currently undervalued as things stand).
Using new SOTP Upside Valuation =
£99.96M / 3,423M shares = 2.9p
There are so many thing they are not factoring in to the valuation, which is fair since they are not currently quantifiable, yet.
Eg in RNS 14/12/20 it stated, “old tailings which are understood to still contain significant silver”
EH surface resource and depth extension of high-grade mineralization below 100 metres untested.
Significant potential of secondary or third mineralised systems along strike from the discovered ore body.
Nothing about Munni Munni North is factored in.
All to play for!
Exactly Max - understand why it’s been done but if that’s really conservative figures things should be looking very positive in the near future
The SOTP Upside Valuation should be £121,660,000 not £82.9M.
They have missed £38,760,000!
Hi Wolfy, the downside valuation for Hamersley is correct.
But for the upside valuation they should have used what they stated as the high case tonnes of 245 (not 150).
Therefore:
245,000,000 x 0.5 Fe = 122,500,000
x£8/t = £980,000,000
x0.2 (to discount 80%) = £196,000,000
x0.51 (our share – 49% Windfield) = £99,960,000
The upside value is considerably higher than what they have entered as £61.2M.
This means there is much more potential.
The valuation for hammersley is based on 74m tonnes of iron ore @50% (37m FE) found. That’s the bottom end of the tonnage and probably the bottom end of the iron found too.
@Max if you scroll down the Turner & Pope note you will see under the Hammersley project it is indeed expected to produce between 75 & 240m tonnes.
Financial Engineering. I knew a friendly broker.
He was a pleasant bloke. If he had been less ignorant
I could not have gone broke. Keep smiling.
Can we have a update Monday I want one last 2k top up tomorrow please please
We we get RNS after 4:30pm
or tomorrow at 7am.
Hopefully, we'll get great results. We've all seen how quickly UFO moves up
Approvals from MEXICO are well overdue too.
Lots of news to come and UFO will be above 2p soon.
Of course your standard-issue LSE conspiracy loon would propose that TP are trying to give their clients a few days to get in cheap before news lands...
BB. I agree with you. There is a dearth of news at the moment and the share price is starting to dip below the placing price. TP's report fills the gap, shores-up the placing price, and going forward allows many of the future RNS's to include the words "exceeding expectations". Good news should start flowing soon, but maybe not for another month or two.
GLA
I have to ask, Why did TPI publish this report now? Are there set dates we should expect them or has this come out of thin air and possibly to cover no RNS yet.
I'm very curious.
Agree with Max... TP have to be risk averse in what they produce as an agent of Alien, and whilst they can say upside/downside case, One project coming along could blow the entire valuation, but that's why valuations can be updated. No one wants to see an early doors speculative valuation at this stage of 27p, but as projects move along the curve, we could well see quarterly increments to the valuation as more and more specifics are confirmed. I think from a sentiment perspective, this is pitched just right and will assist us. As a takeover target, at this stage, 2.2 as a base isn't a bad place to be in.
I noticed that too EWT. The theme I get from the research note is under promise and over deliver.
I am fairly happy with it as things stand at the moment. It at least gives us a baseline.
But as you mentioned their note on silver possibly finishing the year lower is an insult!
Anyone got any suggestion why they’ve used 37Mt of iron as lowside and 75Mt as upside - as I understand it the upside (which they suggested may need to be revised upwards) 245Mt, 51% of which is circa 125Mt, substantially higher.
A bit behind here, but just making my way through... Their silver forecast to finish the year lower than it is now based on a slow recovery of demand in industry and jewellery making - effectively they’re insinuating demand is at its low and going to pick up so I struggle to see how increasing demand, even if it is gradual, will see silver prices lower.
Volatile and “the devils metal” however... they might be right there.
There's up, and then there's UP. One of those three should increase value. All three would be great.
All three within a month would be phenomenal.
Would guess most investing in Aim don't read notes. We need a tasty target at EH, a good rise in the silver price, then a JV for EH. All these 3 will move the price up.
star, turbo
We are agreed that good timely PR is key but eventually whats in the ground and proved up will move the SP
Broker note is a cheerleader ra ra with a flat 3 month SP and not a document highlighting a reason to invest
Exploration values are hard to rate but thats what they are paid to do