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The 350mmcfd figure is a new one on me, however not out of the question. Just as a reminder, Scott has highlighted the future revenues here, which are worth repeating.
Coho comes online shortly - $6m net profit from 10mcfd. Mcap supported by this well = £45m (20p) A second well is worth another £45m.
Cascadura facilities expected to handle initial flow at 90mcfd. $54m profit. £400m mcap. SP of £2.
Cascadura facilities designed for 200mcfd. $120m profit. £900m mcap. £4.50 SP.
That's without the oil, or the condensate, or Chinook (marked as an oil discovery) or anything else.
By my calculations, in time, just from what we've found so far, we are looking at a 5 fold increase from here.
If TXP starts paying 5% dividends on £4.50, that's 22p, or 25% of the current SP.
Wow. Someone tell me I'm wrong.
You are right. At present the Kraken prospect is a lottery ticket. If that structure is indeed filled with oil analogous to guyana/surinam discoveries, then TXP has hit the jackpot! I don’t expect it and it is not necessary for the success of TXP which depends on exploration of turbidite sands prospects and finding additional discoveries like cascadura (starting with Royston which could be Cascadura times 2).
But Kraken, while not as important as Royston (kraken is a deep cretaceous oil prospect and an entirely different deal than all the other prospects). it is certainly the most exciting drill of 2022 And adds some spice to the story.
I hesitate to be so pernickety and i apologise profusely in advance, but I want to say that:
"If it is a guyana/surinman type oil pool, it is like a lottery ticket"
I would say If it is a guyana/surinman type oil pool, it is like a lottery win!
We all know what you meant! Your contribution is excellent, mine is this! Again apologies but I can't help it :-)
Thanks from me too. A nice walk through the new corporate presentation. The story remains very exciting. Much of the story is well known to me (that is why I am invested here) but there were a few new tid-bits.
Central block drilled in 2001, total of four wells - has produced 500 BCF and 25 million barrels of liquids, mostly from 2 of the 4 wells. (Is still producing about 50 mmcf/day).
When they bid on the Ortoire block in 2013 the idea was twofold - one idea was to find more shallow prospects, mainly in Cruse, like on the legacy blocks to west. The other idea was try to replicate central block by finding new turbidite sands type prospects in an era where there is a gas business in Trinidad (a big one) and there is also NG infrastructure. They have certainly done that. In next year production will ramp from 1350 boed to 13,000 boed and then grow from there. He talked about a TCF of gas in Ortoire block (hence Xavier tweet the other day) and 350 MMCF/day of gas production. (That is 210 million a year in profit without accounting for any liquids) .
70 old well bores mostly from 50's and 60's. Turbidite sands not well understood back then, plus there was no gas business on Trinidad. A well that was prospective for gas was same as a dry hole.
Prior well at at Coho in 1990's actually tested and produced at 8 mmcf/day. Shell passed on it because the central block wells were so prolific (like cascadura wells). They abandoned the well and let the acreage go.
Xavier and the team re-interpreted the Cascadura seismic and move up dip but also to different relation to fault line. That made big difference and what they found greatly exceeded all expectations. The Cascadura wells are exceptional, even though Deep is a little injured.
They expect to report something on Royston first week of October.
Kraken will be drilled in 2022. Mentioned Kraken a few times. If it is a guyana/surinman type oil pool, it is like a lottery ticket.
Bass prospect was derived from the new seismic showing anomaly just to east of Royston. Clear from the slide (after it was explained) where it is.
After phase 2 of exploration there are still about 20 prospects. They have between exploration and development wells a full plate for 2 rigs for 10 years. (one time he extended that to 20 years ).
They are all about exploration, geology (go Xavier and team), and team building. He mentioned that entire team was from Trinidad. Then did say that the only ex-pats were some employees bringing advanced drilling expertise, likely with the new Canadian Rig. He did refer to that contract (with the Canadian drilling company) the fact that they would be using two rigs going forward. The are drilling with two rigs now but I would imagine after Royston the will be down to 1 (the Canadian rig) until they get enough cash coming in from Coho but mostly from Casca 1, and Casca Deep to fully fund the 2 rig drilling program.
Anyway, take a listen
Thanks for posting, good summary by PB.
TXP just posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvd8aCBoHrA