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At £1 I'm boking a business class flight to South Africa but at $8.84 I would possibly cruise all the way to Cape Town 🕺 Come on you eejit MMs, make 2024 the year of the Mighty TXP!!
Well this surprised me, according to Simply Wall St the stock price is around 90% undervalued, currently CA$0.87 vs their fair value price of CA$8.84, wow, will take that all day long, question is how long will it take the market to see what seems obvious to us and now it seems Simply Wall St also :-)
https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/energy/tsx-txp/touchstone-exploration-shares/valuation
Interesting Thanks Tobin.
I would recommend you look at what methanex actually say in there investor presentations..
https://www.methanex.com/wp-content/uploads/MEOH-Investor-Presentation-May-2023.pdf
Page 9 they highlight a chart of profit they make with NG at $4/mcf, and methanol at $375/MT.
It is the price they get for there methanol that is important for them and the price at the moment...
https://www.methanex.com/about-methanol/pricing/
Yep about $400/MT
The Henry Hub price is irrelevant as their plant is on T+T, and you can not cheaply move gas from the USA to T+T, and that is where there plant is.
Methanex have even said that they are willing to pay more for NG on T+T
"President and chief executive officer of Methanex Corporation, John Floren, has told an investor conference in Louisiana, USA that his company is prepared to pay higher prices for natural gas in an effort to restart its Titan methanol plant in T&T, but not so much that it makes losses when prices are low.
Floren told the conference last week: “The economics of the gas will be different from the economics we have traditionally enjoyed with Titan. So we will pay a little bit more for the gas, but we want to sign a take or pay contract to invest the tens of millions of dollars we have to, to get the plant restarted, we would want to be cash positive through the cycle, so that’s our goal, and we won’t sign a contract that assures losses during the bottom end of the cycle and that’s part of the challenge that we are having with the Government, as the Government renegotiates with the upstream, they certainly know the downstream’s position. It is not only ours but our competitors, the ammonia guys and LNG.”
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/methanex-willing-to-pay-more--for-gas-in-tt-says-its-ceo-6.2.1510956.8a012035f4
Henry Hub prices are down at the moment but its not the long term price. Companies like Methanex can and do make good money even when gas prices are higher, cf $4/mcf.
Quote:
"In a report sent to Rigzone recently, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected the Henry Hub gas price out to 2028.
According to the report, BMI sees the commodity averaging $3.4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024, $3.6 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu in both 2026 and 2027, and $4.0 per MMBtu in 2028.
A Bloomberg Consensus, which was included in the report, projected that the Henry Hub price would come in at $3.3 per MMBtu in 2024, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2025, $4.0 per MMBtu in 2026 and 2027, and 3.4 per MMBtu in 2028."
Methanex have plant worth several hundred million $ sitting idle.
Google methanex Trinidad News
If there is gas to be had at a reasonable price aka $3.50-$4/mcf they are going to take it.
Trinidad is short on NG for its industrial sector,
There's deals to be done and the price is higher than what TXP is getting now.
I think PB will not be rushing to deliver 200mmcf/d at present prices.
If PB can just hold until 6th April i will Max out my ISA with these beauties..
PB played a blinder getting the 2023 financials out
All though not fully understood by the fast an furious.
Topping up as much as possible for me ....
IMHO the only thing currently pegging the SP is North exiting their position perhaps as part of a portfolio re-org.
That whilst to some frustrating in itself presents an opportunity to build a sizeable position without having to chase the bid.
The document reads 4000boe/d, they are already at 8500boe/d
"In my opinion, the shares are undervalued and have speculative appeal."
Https://michaela34.substack.com/p/touchstone-exploration-seems-fully?r=1bwfai&triedRedirect=true
KS.
Current production prior to optimisation from Cascadura is around 37mmcfd.
Assuming Cas3 comes in and they subsequently move to Cas4, at a stabilised and conservation rate of 20mmcfd per well that’s 60mmcfd additional before moving to Pad B.
60+37=97mmcfd (circa 17k boepd) hence why I said 16k+ to further play it down.
SYD197, is production up nearly 50% by the end of the year not enough for you and that in my view is the baseline. Paul is not promising anything he can't guarantee (which is new) I believe the new wells have the potential to deliver much higher than this, they are talking about 14k by end of year but they have built the facilities to handle 40k, lets see how the drill programme delivers over the next 9 months...
All the bad news is out the way…..rest is just gravy
Canada perceived the yesterdays RNS better.
Not a chance of $3.50/$4.0 Henry hub price is $1.70 Today,
Paul bayy needs to concentrate on maxing as much gas as he can at the price he agreed To get the company moving forward
alligator, if you cannot trade, that's not my problem. sold 19k shares 8.20 am then around 2pm bought back with the same money 19,756 shares, freebies 756. if you cannot see this share will at least double in price and vastly increase production and cashflow which the markets only understands in the current climate. jesus looks at aim it's dire no one has any money to spend, shares make 10% without one trade. which is better 9% divi in another stock or stay here.
yes it's a **** market but for me l am confident in my investment choices.
So one day in the not to distance future TXP could be producing 200mmcf/d and getting paid $3.50-$4/mcf. Not all will be profit, I will let others do the maths.
NGL will be extra,
Other discoveries will be extra.
When PB mentioned the gas price in that previous interview we were at the time recieving less than the market price for our gas on our fixed price contract. However the Henry Hub price today is below what we are recieving so it makes absolute sense to maximise production now while we are getting above market price. We have less amunition in negotiations on gas prices than we would have had a few months ago.
There is an argument not to push for 200mcf, and PB has eluded to in one of his presentations. Th price they are being paid for the gas is less than it is worth. One of the offshore producers I believe got $4/mcf and industrial users on Trinidad are probably quite happy to pay that sort of price.
https://www.methanex.com/wp-content/uploads/MEOH-Investor-Presentation-May-2023.pdf ... page9
There are negotiations on going with Methanex, it may be that the contract price could be increased or a better contract price when the current contract expires? If you read the latest annual report, and read between the lines, there is a lot of negotiations going on, the current 20year methane contract runs out in September.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/methanex-corporation-provides-trinidad-tobago-121500487.html
PB knows he can get a better price for the gas, probably 50% more, and he just needs to wait.
"I still think 14k boepd will be conservative, I’m expecting 16k+"
How do you derive that expected figure, if you don't mind?
There he is Aligator ...you crack me up .
There are plenty of no brainers to come here hold in there ,I was hoping for the Stabalised results, there be coming ..along with cas 3 . We're asset rich .an funded
Small retrace today .
Soon TXP Sp will be like a coiled spring ...
Corpse, Given your ability to read this share (which has certainly eluded me and many others), what do you think this no brainer will do next?
So - absolutely no fqcking volume in Canada today. Which I guess is ok, since even though we had the annual report, it felt like a non-event (meaning, no surprises). I guess the impairment was an arrow to the knee, though hardly a surprise.
But as we've seen before, it doesn't take huge volume to unleash the beast - so I'm X'ing my fingers for the next releases to be great. PB certainly seems cheerful in the last 2 minutes of that interview.
And volume ignites this share like a rocket (or crashes, but I think we've hit ground zero already).
Also nice to see estimates for cash in 2025 go up. It's still a hope from me that we'll see shareholder return (be it buybacks or dividend - or both) late 2025 (Q4 or paid in Q1 2026). If that happens, I'll probably retire :D