Touchst Ex Di Share Chat (TXP)

Never said I was 100% in any one, but I typically don’t have more than 5, and most times less. I just don’t see the point of spreading things out to look more like an index fund. I could just buy an index fund if I wanted to do that.

A lot of small business owners are 100% in their own businesses. I don’t have a problem going heavy on TXP now, we have much less risk with proven reserves and offtake agreement. I do have funds in other things though that are higher risk higher return. Someday I will go some portion into boring yield stocks. I have a hard time finding anything with the forward visibility of TXP now. I can’t hit all the AIM or London stuff at all, only Canada.

With lowest purchases of 0,20 cad you can see how long I’ve been here, I like to calculate how many feet of the wells are payed for by my portion of the company. My part if the one that gets perforated and spews out hydrocarbons ..... :-)

Monkey_Junkey,

Fair enough. You seem to be in a good place.

I just read the ‘hindsight is 20/20’ line and agree that hindsight enables one to see more clearly, I’m not sure the visual acuity is quite that good or people would repeat the mistakes they make, yet they do.

I would never again be in any share 100%.

Anyway, good luck to us all, but don’t expect us to be developing this for more than 24 months or so. It just won’t happen.

Buffy

Riteview - in I3E as well. Nice bottom of the oil market cycle acquisition but markets expectations of the management are not great from past deliverables. It's easy £120mn+ acquisition with current oil and gas prices. Also in SAVE and PHAR( management is poor in PHAR but assets undervalued).

As Spawny mentioned and noticed a lot of TXP holders are also in PRD for its Morocco onshore gas drill that's coming up - most people it reminds of TXP and surprisingly a lot of TXP holders that were holders of TXPs from low 20p area seem to be in PRD as well. Their call on TXP proved right, could PRD be 2 on 2? PRD has got 3 segments so good underpinning to market cap and downside protection, and not just a single gas drill play, and with c. £ 20mn market cap does remind of TXP when it was not today's TXP. Take a look at PRD, might like what you find. Strangely came across TXP when someone else mentioned it on some other board so guess thanks to that someone.

All IMO dyor

Buffoon

I have made money trading TXP and other things. The worst move to derisk was going from 800k shares to like 450k or 400k shares to derisk if something bad happened at the Coho drill. I know if was the “right thing to do”. You can do the math what 800k shares is today. My calculator gets angry with me when I give it such big numbers.

I have made money along the way with other shares for that which I took out of TXP, just not as much. I have also traded a few in and out of TXP along the rise, but never totally out, and never under 200k shares. Made some money trading, but missed the train and had to jump back on a bit as well (also creating capital gains tax liability), so would have been better to just turns of the computer and throw it out the window when I had 800k. I have more than 200k now, and less than 400k, so I’m not exactly in a bad position, hold a lot more than most, but less than some. The market has acted quite irrationally with TXP, so it has not been easy to time trading.

I am in love with Touchstone, sorry to say, I just really like the risk reward ratio here, and have never seen anything like it before. The risk is less still after the last RNS, it’s like every RNS derisks this thing further and further, yet extremely under valued anyways.

I’m free ride in TXP no matter what, so it’s pedal to the metal and we see where we end up. I’m not going to trade any portion in and out anymore (due to tax liability), just waiting to get bought out at some point really, and to see how bloody rich I am (We are) at the end of the day. How big is the sailboat gonna be that I retire on?

What will I name it? Touchstone, Ortoire, Royston, Steelehead, Kraken, Cascadura, Paul, North Energy Sucks Nuts, Xaviers Wild Ride, Could Have Been Bigger, Junkies Monkey, Drill Baby Drill, Heavy Duty Telescoping RamRod, Game Changer, Gas Monkey, Oil Monkey, DYOR, WTFDIK, Extended Wild Thing, Cretaceous Monster, Where’s Ross?, Capital Raised, ........ so many possibilities.

I could already just take the cash and live until retirement without ever lifting a finger, but that would be boring, need to see this through to the end.

Whoa Monkey_Junkey, you’ve got it as bad as Pro.

Never fall in love with a company!

As for you ‘losing out’ by trading, I’d say you will have read many times it’s better not to, but you ignored it each time. Yet you talk about hindsight being 20/20. This is another example of people understanding something intellectually but not buying it emotionally. Possibly you have now done so. Until you do, people can say it until the cows come home, and you’ll not take any notice.

As for trading, not many are natural born traders, let alone smart enough to have a rational trading system.

Buffy

Apparently Coho pipeline permitting has been a challenging process because nobody knew how to do it at the government end as the last pipelines were decades ago.

The process is now in place and the authorities are now certain of the series of steps that need to be taken so the Cascadura/Chinook permissioning will be quick especially as it’s mainly in a low population area.

But first they need to test them both properly and right size the pipes as you only want to do this once. So the delays on testing do impact the pipeline as it pushes more of the construction into the wet season. But as it’s beside existing country roads that will be an inconvenience not a block.

It’s difficult to simply compare different oil and gas companies solely on their market capitalisation. For one, it doesn’t take into account any debt. I don’t know much about SAVE but if they have $400million debt then this should technically be added to the market capitalisation when comparing. A hundred other things to consider too.

Spawny, I don't disagree with some of your points re TXP and SAVE but I do think it's worth comparing enterprise value for the different companies (ie market cap + debt) which for SAVE is somewhere around £680m.
I do have some SAVE too btw :)

No I didn't forget that I'm well aware of the risks. I'm happy to consider Covid will have played a part in delays there as it did with TXP. Even if SAVE get no more customers and carry on as are they are already contracted to supply possibly in the order of approx twice the value of gas that TXP have currently signed up to with the NGC, are already selling that gas, and have a Mcap approx 60% of TXP. As always dyor though.

I have been in SAVE a couple of years, although only in my SIPP now. You seem to forget that Save have been promising new customers for over 12 months, Niger development for over 2 years, large iis have been selling and theres over $400m in debt with a hefty coupon. Luckily its in an investor friendly country, Nigeria. Gulp.

Yes I agree NGC will likely expedite things but I honestly can't see TXP selling any gas from Chinook/Cascadura in 2021. Recent events have highlighted their somewhat optimistic timeliness on several occasions. Compare with SAVE who are already selling large quantities of gas and are a lower Mcap than here.

Similar to others regarding spreading risk. I've been here since 10p but currently have only half the shares I once had in TXP. I'm happy with that though. I topsliced a lot between 160 and 175 and put into PRD and SAVE both which have huge potential (though very different risk profiles) imo. TXP has done me great and is still my biggest holding by some way. I just had to get some out of it as was 100% in there most of 2020 and, as someone said on other board, I had to 'sell down to my sleeping level'. I still think people undestimate the timing risks here given TXP have not sold a drop of gas yet and are reliant on a 3rd party for the infrastructure in order to get to market now.

Very comfortable now with a portfolio of 4 (in order of size) : TXP, SAVE, PRD, UOG.

I certainly used the opportunity to top up again on Friday. Everything in the RNS was positive except testing delays.

I am really hoping we can get some early oil production to trucks to bring in that cash. The idea of Extended Well Testing the hell out of Chinook to get that oil up and sold pronto is much more attractive than waiting for pipelines to be built. In the time it takes to permit and build a pipeline, we could drill another well at Chinook for the gas production if we are not able to produce from both the gas and oil zones with double production tubing and packers.

Suspect the well diameter might be too small such complex completions, so would really like to see Chinook 1 on oil production and cash flowing in sooner rather than later. Chinook 2 can be gas. And then we have Chinook 8 and then maybe up to Chinook 68.

This is crazy, we’re gonna end up with 3 drilling rigs running 24/7 and so many wells it will be a part time job keeping track of it all. Or maybe we just reach a point where we don’t take so much interest in each well, and use time to keep track of and spend dividend payments.

But with 22 exploration targets to drill you have to stay interested in each well ..... wow, some serious luxury problems we’re getting into.

Why anyone would sell their shares to us yesterday is beyond me. Seriously over weighting TXP in your portfolio seems a much better option. I have never seen a company with such a clear path to defend the undervalued stock price with tremendous upside potential in my life. Been holding here since 0,20 cad. Unfortunately far off my highest holding of 800k shares, but that’s what “spreading risk” and playing around with trading too much got me. Hind sight is 20/20, but I still have several hundred thousand shares, and life is good.

I want to jump on a plane so bad and go down with a drone to film massive gas flares, but I guess we’ll just have to wait for Touchstone to release them on You Tube Covid and all.

I remember where I was when I first saw the Coho flare. Maybe like the moon landing for some of you old farts. It was the beginning of a life changing circumstance that just get’s better and better, and hopefully better and better still, and I will never forget it.

Just a thought on selling pre or post Kraken.

There is a fundamental problem with exploration in Brownfield settings. It’s not an oil thing as it’s rampant in hard rock mining too.

That problem is closeology to what is already known and to date every single well up to Kraken will have been a twin with longer reach and maybe better seismic, but that’s all.

So why were those targets selected 60-70 years ago. Often the reason was accessibility in a world where bulldozers were expensive or light weight, where the infrastructure in 1960 supported things maybe or possibly geological theoretical models that no longer are used. So we are still basing decisions on central premises made based on somewhat thin information.

So post Kraken and after history has been exhausted there is the remaining 95% to go play with!

Time for some new area seismic with all the toys methinks? By then TXP will certainly be able to afford it and maybe run some of it over the neighbours too?

Lex/ Db couldn’t agree more this becomes more intriguing at every turn. I’ve been fascinated by Cascadura since the second drill and now Chinnock has thrown up some interesting complexity in addition to Smasher aquatint’s idea of the two being connected which the company has also alluded to now
Originally I had this idea about selling down a bit after Royston came on stream( assuming successful) now we have this connectivity/ Kraken and one wonders if Steelhead will be any different. If this remains independent the divi income could be quite substantial when compared to our current SP.

I thought the wording of the RNS was quite apparent. Clear potential of a major oil find.
The risk is that you read how you tend to see the world. Glass half full or half empty.
Best to read what is there and def not through the bottom of the glass ;)

The wording was obtuse and it took an oil engineer Spangle to ask the questions that on the Advfn board before Pro did the leg work today and asked XM directly.

Maybe they intended to be obtuse? That release was full of goodies, hidden in self inflicted minor screwups .

An object lesson in how to turn a silk purse into a sows ear!

So at Chinook potentially two new oil finds, on top of vast amounts of gas which are likely exceeds the Cascadura 1 find.

What’s not to like?

I’m very excited by this Gamflin
The market has completely ignored this potential for numerous oil wells into this new structure 1000 ft updip
If JS is excited then I’m excited
Hope to here much more in Webinar next week
Apart from the testing delay I can see only positives now in RNS
GLA

Xavier has just confirmed what I thought was the correct meaning of the wording in the RNS..........

The potentially oil filled sub thrust which hit a fracture in the Chinook downdip location and so was dominated by water influx imo........has optimal locations on the Chinook structure that are 1000 foot updip vertically.

As JS has said in the RNS........Tremendous potential !!

Xavier Moonan @MoonXav
·
42m Replying to @Proselenes
1000ft vertically up structure. The subthrust sands which were tested occur at 1000ft shallower in other areas along the Chinook structure. Those would be the areas that James referred to as having tremendous potential.

Hi--check out the TXP thread on ADVFN

Have you got a link please Camdenlad? Not sure where the other thread is?

Xavier has replied to Pro on the other thread and cleared up an important matter--check it out-is significant

Thanks all your answers, I appreciate your time.

HB I just meant two more production wells.

The bigger question is does a 20 inch pipeline now look too small? Why not move that up to 30 inch and future proof discoveries?

The extra pipe cost would be modest and capacity would more than double.

So I am very keen that they start testing soon.

Also getting as much on stream as early as possible will keep away the bidders who would want this cheap and with low risk infill upside.

Interesting. You wouldn’t apply for additional production locations at Chinook if they didn’t believe it is going to be commercial!

Let’s assume 8 of the locations are for Cascadura. They achieved 60mmcf/d from the two zones. Let’s assume they choke it at 50mmcf/d. 8x50mmcf is 400mmcf/d. PylcBaay confirmed 10mmcf/d at Coho is worth $500,000 per month net to TXP. Therefore 400mmcf is worth $20million per month net to TXP or $240million per year!! Just for Cascadura from the zones that have been confirmed so far