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BOEPD.... I really hope PB stops talking BOEPD when most is gas and the price is wildly different.
I am not sure what to expect. First of all it is not a proven discovery well until it flows commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.
Chinook is a BIG structure and it is deeper than the Cascadura structure. I am hoping it is similarly charged with liquids rich natural gas under pressure. It is only 1.3 km away from Cascadura but it is a different structure so we won't really know for sure until it is tested. I hope we don't get faked out by modest flow rates (even if commercial) from the 68 feet of pay in lowest zone. (like 10mmcf/day which would be excellent but not "world class"). That will be the first number we will see if they release the results as they come in. I am hoping that the upper two zones will flow similar to the Cascadura1-ST zones which would be truly amazing.
Chinook is much bigger in area than Cascadura, also deeper by quite a bit. Will be very interesting to see what the pressures and flow rates actually are. The first Chinook zone they are testing will be the smallest, only 68 feet of pay, but by far the deepest zone to be tested so far. Pressures may even higher since deeper but not for certain. Also unsure whether the well will flow the same, but they are similar sands. We will just have to see. Exciting times.
Cascadura1-ST 1. Deep zone- 162 feet of pay (6056 to 6218) - flow tested 5500 boe/d (equipment constrained)
2. Upper zone 345 feet of pay (5570-5915) - flow tested 5500 boe/d (equipment constrained)
Chinook 1. Deepest zone - 68 feet of pay (9750-10003)
2. Middle zone - 180 feet of pay (8850-9150)
3. Upper zone - 341 feet of pay (8154-8710)
.... I do not hope etc
I does not hope the market expects Chin to be equal to Cascadura. The two structures are quite different.
Please note those figures are only Cascadura & Chinook at the wellhead CF#s prior to Ops. costs & taxes & G&A but also not including any revenues from old assets & Coho - simply a rough guestimate of the annualized potential by the end of 2022 after the development wells have been completed & tied in (PB stated that TXP had applied for 2 surface locations at each of Cascadura & Chinook with potential of 4 wells/location - possibly 16 development wells.
Good recap and summary. That sums up why we are here and why I am still buying (modestly but steadily) as long as shares are where they are now. Just seems compelling compared to the other holdings that I now have (and compelling compared to my new ideas that I am researching).
We need a number to move up. Even a good flow test number from the lowest Chinook zone (confirming that is is a discovery or even better a "world class" discovery - their words, not mine).
I am hoping we get one number on March 10 - from Chinook since I am not worried about Cascadura Deep.
Cascadura Deep has plenty of pay in the same prolific Herrera zone that caused all the pressure problems 900 feet away at Cascadura1-ST - they encountered the same high pressure that blew the gas to the top of the pipe at this well too, so that they had difficulty controlling the well and could not proceed to the planned test of deeper zone. The scenario is the same as what happened at Cascadura1-ST. There are some new sands they are testing, that could add some spice, but virtually no chance they won't get good production from this well.
Good day,
Based on the presentation/interviews with PB at the conference on the 14th & subsequent Q&A on the 19th, by the end of 2022, between Cascadura (2 Exploration & 4 - 8 Development wells) & Chinook (1 exploration & 4 - 8 development locations)TXP may be capable of filling the new 20' pipeline to capacity of 250 mmcf/day. Using COHO operating CF #s of US$500,000 per 10 mmcf/day combined with associated liquids (TXP models in their presentations 28 Bbls. per 1 mmcf/day) at say US$15 netback per barrel (figure may be low based on rising oil prices), this would amount to gross field operating CF of US$187.8M dollars or US$150M dollars net to TXP's 80% share or US$0.72 per basic shares outstanding.
As PB has stated repeatedly, expect a "wall of cash" beginning at the end of 2021. No further equity raise will be required.
Plans for Royston, if successful, also call for a 250 mmcf/day pipeline...possibly another US$0.72 per share
This deeper Kraken play targeting the cretaceous is the biggest wildcard of all as the geological concept models the same play structure as Exxon's Starboek Block offshore Guyana. The success enjoyed by Exxon (15+ discoveries) & other players in the Guyana/Suriname basins has been nothing short of spectacular & will transform those 2 countries 3thrd world economies into Dubai look a likes. Exxon anticipates producing 750,000 Bbls./day from their Bloc by 2025 latest.
As to testing results from Cascadura & Chinook, my guess is that some, if not all, of the information will be available prior to the time of the next conference on March 10th.
All the best, Toolster